More from Michael Calabrese
Mike Calabrese's Picks
Today
TXST -13.5-115
RICE
0
7
TXST
1.15u
2nd 8:42
Bobcats were 6-6, three losses by 3 points or less and another in overtime. With better luck, you’re looking at an 8-4 team, with the 7th-best total offense that pumped in over 36 points per game this season.
Up against a Rice team that got demolished by the good AAC teams, lost to Memphis-UNT-South Florida by a combined 105 points. This is a five win bowl team, and three wins came against Prairie View A&M, Charlotte and UAB. They’re also forced to go to Patrick Crayton Jr at QB. He was on the field for 34 plays this season, and he accounted for 3 passing yards and -22 rushing yards.
Texas State’s defense which was a punching bag for years under Kinne, cracked the top 100 in total defense and down the stretch they ramped up the HAVOC. 21 tackles for loss in their final three games. And they got here, as an underrated 6-6 team with virtually 0 turnover luck. They got 1 fumble all year long and only 9 takeaways. One of the worst turnover margins in the nation.
Any good fortune goes their way they win this thing by 21+. I’ll lay it.
25
NAVY -7-110
NAVY
@
CIN
1.1u
01/02 9:30 PM
Service Academies hit at 73% ATS hit rate in bowl games since 2003.
Navy was totally outclassed once, against Notre Dame. -3 in the turnover battle, including a pick in the endzone and a tunrover on downs in the UNT red zone, all of it resulted in a 14 point loss in Denton. They won every other games, beat Memphis, beat USF. Beat Army. These are good wins down the stretch.
No Sorsby, no Coreleone, entire secondary is gone, from a Cincy team that lost four straight, three losses by double digits. Just a nightmare finish, no momentum. Barely top 100 against the run with Corleone in the middle.
Same situation last year, closed as a dog against an OU team that faded late in the year. Won outright.
29
Pending
JVST -2.5-110
JVST
@
DEL
1.1u
01/03 12:00 AM
Remember the name Mostapha El Moutaouakkil. UDel gives away a ton of extra opportunities with their sloppy ball handling and inability to rebound.
19
MSU +122
MSU
@
NEB
1u
01/03 2:00 AM
I’m interested in backing a rugged, defensive minded team against Nebraska. Sparty can lock down looks inside the arc, clean up the glass and Fears is an elite table setter now in the 99th percentile of playmakers per Evan Miya.
22
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.59u |
| Last 7 Days | 13-6-2 | 62% | 9.87u |
| Last 30 Days | 34-22-2 | 59% | 16.92u |
| All Time | 1498-1571-39 | 48% | -13.05u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 1-1-0 | 50% | 4.51u |
| MLB | 2-2-1 | 40% | 1.80u |
| NFL | 1-2-0 | 33% | -1.10u |
| NBA | 2-2-0 | 50% | -1.68u |
| NCAAF | 623-651-9 | 49% | -4.13u |
| NCAAB | 866-910-29 | 48% | -25.01u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
At that point in my career, the largest single game bet I ever placed was Alabama -1.5 against LSU in 2012 BCS National Championship Game. LSU crossed the 50-yard line just once in the entire game, a 21-0 Alabama victory.
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Iona +4.5 vs. BYU in 2012 NCAA Tournament play-in game. Iona hit an in-game ATS win expectancy of 99.9% before a 17-point second led to a 78-72 loss.
Specialties
- College Football
- College Basketball