If you're following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the early part of this tournament. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home and competing via video conference — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
Like in plenty of other sports, name recognition can sway odds drastically in darts and that seemed to be the case on Nights 1 and 2, as prohibitive favorites, Peter Wright and Gerwyn Price, did not win their respective groups and left the door open for a pair of 6-1 underdogs, Jamie Lewis and Luke Woodhouse, to cash.
Night 3 was a different story as odds-on favorite Dave Chisnall ran the show, going 3-0 and only dropping 3 legs en route to a clean sweep. Chisnall was the first "big name" to make it to the knock-out phase of the Home Tour.
That brings us to Night 4.
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PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you're unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I'm assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn't go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv. It will be shown for free, although I am not 100% certain it will be available for users in the United States, let's hope for the best.
- The first eight groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.
PDC Home Tour Night 4 Betting Picks, Preview
The PDC Home Tour will pick back up on Monday with Group 4, which is headlined by the tournament's first female competitor Lisa "The Lancashire Rose" Ashton.
The schedule features six games, starting at 2:30 p.m. ET. PDC is streaming the event for free, but there have been some technical difficulties, so keep an eye on their Twitter with how to watch.
Additionally, you can track the action on Bet365, which is honestly an exhilarating way to watch a bet lose in soul-crushing fashion.
Let's take a look at Group 4:
Group 4 Odds
- No. 47 Ross Smith +150
- No. 53 Mickey Mansell +250
- No. 71 Geert Nentjes +250
- No. 128 Lisa Ashton +550
Group 4 Order of Play
Matches begin at 2:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 20.
- Ross Smith (-305) v Lisa Ashton (+225)
- Mickey Mansell (-114) v Geert Nentjes (-114)
- Lisa Ashton (+138) v Geert Nentjes (-177)
- Ross Smith (-200) v Mickey Mansell (+155)
- Mickey Mansell (-190) v Lisa Ashton (+155)
- Geert Nentjes (+138) v Ross Smith (-177)
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For the first time in the tournament, we don't have an odds-on favorite to deal with as Ross Smith is the lukewarm +150 favorite in what figures to be a wide-open Group 4.
Even though Smith boasts the best average over the past year at 93.51, I have no interest in paying up for a favorite in a first-of-its-kind tournament. There's just too much variance and I believe the best strategy would be to take on big favorites on a match-by-match basis. The prices to go against Smith aren't as attractive as they were against Wright, Price or Chisnall, but he's also nowhere nearly as good as those three stalwarts.
Smith will also have the added pressure of facing Lisa Ashton in the night's opening match. Ashton's 83.36 average over the past year is the weakest in the group, but that is still the best mark among all women in the sport. "The Lancashire Rose" is no stranger to the limelight and earlier this year she became the first woman to earn her PDC Tour Card through Q School.
The other two competitors in Group 4, youngster Geert Nentjes and Northern Irish journeyman Mickey Mansell, have nearly identical averages over the past year and their odds, both to win the group and in their head-to-head, tell you that picking between them is a coin toss.
I don't see the point in backing either of them at these prices and will instead take a stroll down Narrative Street. In a group that is totally up for grabs, I'm looking for the biggest price and that lands me on The Lancashire Rose.
Day 4 Betting Picks
- Lisa Ashton (+225) over Ross Smith
- Lisa Ashton to Win Group 4 (+450)
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PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 3-10, -1.95 units
PDC Home Tour Odds and Schedule
Group 5
Tuesday, April 21 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 34 Luke Humphries (+115)
- No. 56 Devon Petersen (+200)
- No. 109 Nick Kenny (+450)
- No. 72 Joe Murnan (+700)
Luke Humphries v Nick Kenny
Devon Petersen v Joe Murnan
Nick Kenny v Joe Murnan
Luke Humphries v Devon Petersen
Devon Petersen v Nick Kenny
Joe Murnan v Luke Humphries
Group 6 Fixtures
Wednesday, April 22 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 8 James Wade (+125)
- No. 42 Ryan Searle (+180)
- No. 68 Andy Boulton (+450)
- Adrian Gray (+600)
James Wade v Adrian Gray
Ryan Searle v Andy Boulton
Adrian Gray v Andy Boulton
James Wade v Ryan Searle
Ryan Searle v Adrian Gray
Andy Boulton v James Wade
Group 7 Fixtures
Thursday, April 23
- No. 38 Gabriel Clemens (+130)
- No. 48 Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- No. 117 Ryan Meikle (+350)
- No. 74 Gavin Carlin (+650)
Gabriel Clemens v Ryan Meikle
Jelle Klaasen v Gavin Carlin
Ryan Meikle v Gavin Carlin
Gabriel Clemens v Jelle Klaasen
Jelle Klaasen v Ryan Meikle
Gavin Carlin v Gabriel Clemens
Group 8 Fixtures
Friday, April 24 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 15 Johnny Clayton (+130)
- No. 115 Adam Hunt (+275)
- No. 87 David Pallett (+350)
- No. 55 Richard North (+400)
Jonny Clayton v Adam Hunt
Richard North v David Pallett
Adam Hunt v David Pallett
Jonny Clayton v Richard North
Richard North v Adam Hunt
David Pallett v Jonny Clayton
