Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Odds & Prediction: Bet LA Moneyline (5/1)

After a stunning loss in the NLDS a year ago, the Dodgers finally got some revenge over the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, only for Christian Walker to deliver a walk-off win for Arizona on Wednesday.

Now the Dodgers will turn the ball over to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in hopes of winning this series and getting back to their winning ways. Can Yamamoto baptism by fire in the major leagues continue to yield positive results, or will it be Jordan Montgomery's night to steal this one away?

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds have the Dodgers listed as -134 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 9.

Editor's Note: This MLB betting preview was written before starting lineups were announced. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani (rest) is not in Los Angeles' lineup on Wednesday night.

Dare I say the jury is still out on Montgomery? The tall lefty produced the best season of his career in 2023, at which point he hit the open market asking for an incredible payday.

Most general managers weren't necessarily buying the sustainability of Montgomery's dominant form in Texas, so should you?

Well, the start of 2024 has been without many issues for Montgomery, who's pitched to a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings with just one walk and one home run against him. That's the good news.

The bad is that Montgomery has struck out just 14% of the batters he's faced and pitched to a .226 Expected Batting Average.

It's hard to point to more quality contact or a different hit trajectory as the culprits, it's just that his sinker has been hit much better in 2024. Perhaps the book is out now, or perhaps he just ran into two teams (Cardinals and Giants) that had a good read on him.

We'll see what ends up happening as his season begins to take shape, but generally speaking, Montgomery has been the exact same guy he was last season, with the exception of a significant dip in strikeouts.

Given his competency, the last few years have come with a below-average strikeout rate, though. I'm not sure that's too much of a concern.

What I'm a bit concerned about here is Arizona's lack of power. That's what led it to the World Series a season ago, and to this point, its ISO has come in 13 points lower in 2024.

The strikeouts remain down, and the walk rate has shown a marginal improvement over a decent enough 8.8% mark last season, but this team simply can't find the homers when it needs them — aside from Tuesday's big shot from Walker.

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Yamamoto, unlike Montgomery, is a pitcher who'll rely on strikeouts to get him through starts. He's up over 31% for the season, putting him into that upper tier of the league.

That's been pretty pertinent when you consider his xBA is right around the league average and he's pitched to very few ground balls, trading them in for a ton of line drives.

The good news is that he's not walking very many hitters, but the bad news is that he'll likely aid the Diamondbacks in their quest to find some more power. They're slashing .265/.350/.428 against fly-ball pitchers this season and have a very similar line against those who find themselves in the middle, struggling to hit ground-ball pitchers as a ground ball-oriented team.

On the flip side, however, Arizona is just .191/.290/.589 against "power" pitchers — which are considered those in the top third in strikeouts plus walks — so this one could arguably go either way.

L.A.'s offense has fallen a bit in both fly-ball rate and home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, though it does sit atop the league in xBA and ranks third in xSLG.

The Dodgers have quite enjoyed facing finesse pitchers like Montgomery, however, slashing .288/.358/.454 in these plate appearances. That's something that makes sense given they love to walk and are doing their most damage when the ball comes back into play.

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I can see the merit in Arizona's offense here — despite some distrust on my end — but I do feel as though a power pitcher like Yamamoto is ultimately a poor matchup.

The Diamondbacks posted just a .129 ISO over the last week — ranked 21st in the league — which doesn't inspire much confidence that it'll have the goods to do damage in the few opportunities it'll have to put the ball in play against Yamamoto.

On top of that, their strikeout rate has risen to roughly 24% in that span.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, should welcome a matchup with a contact-oriented pitcher with open arms. Montgomery is going to pound the strike zone as he always has and won't nibble and risk any walks.

With L.A.'s incredible numbers so far this season against pitchers like Montgomery, I think it's in an excellent spot here at home.

I think this is a rare opportunity to play the Dodgers as short road favorites. The conditions at Chase Field should constrain this meeting to which team can put the ball in play to the most success without leaning on the long ball.

That's a contest the Dodgers will win almost every time — particularly with a pitcher on the hill who'll stymie the Diamondbacks' high-contact approach.

Pick: Dodgers ML (-140)