When it comes to player props for the National Championship between Alabama and Georgia, it starts with this season's Heisman Trophy winner.
There is a direct correlation between pressuring Bryce Young and the amount of rushing yards posted. Young rushing the ball has never been an option, as he's totaled -11 yards on the season when having a designed run called.
However, teams that present pressure end up producing plenty of scramble yard opportunities for the Alabama quarterback. Georgia produced eight quarterback hurries in the SEC Championship, and Young responded with 40 scramble yards. Tennessee produced five pressured pockets, resulting in 54 scramble yards for Young.
Both Arkansas and Auburn presented similar results, and Young gained a combined 41 scramble yards.
Young averages 6.1 yards per carry, and Georgia created eight pressures against a healthy Alabama offensive line without recording a sack.
Betting the Bryce Young rushing yards over prop is in order, but because sack yards and kneel-downs count against that total, I would begin betting at any number at 8.5 up through 29.5. This number will take steam on game day, so the size of the bet becomes smaller as the number crosses 30.
As far as Alabama rushing attempts, running zone read with Trey Sanders and Brian Robinson Jr. against the Georgia front will not be in the cards for offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien.
The Crimson Tide threw 51 times and rushed on just 27 attempts in the SEC title game. Both Robinson and Sanders were limited to 3.5 yards per rush as the Alabama ground attack was stuffed on 54% of attempts.
Early markets have Robinson's total yards at 80.5 and Sanders at 31.5. Those numbers are a reflection of the Cincinnati game and not the Georgia front seven against an unhealthy Alabama offensive line.
Take the under on both running backs' total yards, with Robinson down to 49.5 and Sanders to 24.5.
Young will be passing often considering rushing attempts will be limited in efficiency. Both Slade Bolden and Ja'Corey Brooks have picked up the slack for Metchie, with Bolden being more of a possession receiver moving the chains and Brooks being the home-run hitter.
With Jameson Williams and Bolden properly priced in the early market, there is value on Brooks' total yards. After posting a combined 115 yards on 10 targets against Auburn and Cincinnati, Brooks total receiving yards over 34.5 is a play up to 44.5.
The potential loss of cornerback Josh Jobe to turf toe will increase the number of targets on Kool-Aid McKinstry. Georgia's Stetson Bennett immediately targeted McKinstry in the conference title game with two completions and 55 yards. Both Bowers and Pickens produced explosive plays against the freshman cornerback.
Other Alabama defenders to give up explosives include linebackers Henry To'oTo'o and Christian Harris, each surrendering 30-yard passes to Ladd McConkey and Bowers, respectively.
The longest touchdown number is set at 52.5, a number Williams has eclipsed in eight games for the Crimson Tide. Look for the Alabama linebackers and cornerback McKinstry to give up explosive passes from Bennett to eclipse this number.
Alabama Player Prop Picks
- Bryce Young Over Rushing Yards 8.5 through 29.5
- Brian Robinson Jr. Under Rushing Yards 80.5 through 49.5
- Trey Sanders Under Rushing Yards 31.5 through 24.5
- Ja'Corey Brooks Over Receiving Yards 33.5 to 44.5
Game Prop Pick
- Longest Touchdown Over 52.5 Yards or Better
