Baylor vs UCF Odds, Picks: Fireworks in Orlando?

Let's head down to Orlando, where the Baylor Bears will take on the Central Florida Golden Knights.

Both of these teams have had completely polar opposite starts to the season, so this is a fascinating matchup from a betting perspective.

It's essentially the battle of the backup quarterbacks, unless Baylor's Blake Shapen is ready to return this week from his MCL injury. Knights QB Timmy McClain will remain at the helm for the injured John Rhys Plumlee.

The Bears are looking to turn their season around with an upset on the road, whereas UCF will be looking to avenge its first loss of the season.

It's already odd enough talking about these two teams as conference foes, so let's waste no further time and break down this matchup.

When the Bears fell to Texas State as four-touchdown home favorites in Week 1, the writing was already on the wall for a long season. Their offense has yet to establish any sort of rhythm, and their defense has not done itself any favors either.

The Bears will need to get going offensively if they want any sort of prayer to win this game. Fortunately, I think they can have some success in this particular matchup.

Offensively, the Bears are 98th in Rush Success Rate and 113th in Passing Success Rate. However, they are facing a UCF defense that doesn't create a lot of Havoc and they are vulnerable against the run.

QB Sawyer Robertson has been decent ever since he took over for Shapen, but it's safe to say the Bears are eager to get him back. Shapen isn't an all-world talent, but if he's able to return in this matchup, he should provide a spark to the offense.

The defense has been as poor as the offense. The Bears are equally poor in Rush Success Rate (89th), Pass Success Rate (87th) and Line Yards (88th). They allowed over 500 total yards in a 38-6 loss to Texas last week, and things won't get much easier in this matchup.

I don't know how Baylor wins this game unless Shapen suits up, but regardless, the offense can take advantage of some weak areas in the Knights' defensive unit. If they can't get it right this week, we can write off the Bears for the rest of the season.

McClain has been a solid option for the Knights ever since he took over for Plumlee. He's completing 65% of his passes overall and nearly 70% at home.

The Knights have a juicy matchup in this one. They're 11th in rushing and 21st in Passing Success Rate. It's safe to say the offense hasn't skipped a beat since Plumlee went down with a leg injury three weeks ago in an 18-16 win over Boise State.

Gus Malzahn's Knights love to play up-tempo, and this Bears defense could find itself trying to catch its breath all afternoon. Not only that, the Knights are seventh in the nation in Offensive Quality Drives, which leads me to believe we could see a lot of quick-scoring drives.

Last week, the Knights' defense was simply overmatched against a potent Kansas State offense. UCF allowed running back DJ Giddens to run wild with more than 200 yards on the ground. The Blazers don't run the ball too effectively, so their rush defense might not get tested like it did last week.

I expect the Gus Bus to keep his foot on the gas throughout this entire game, regardless of the scoreboard. This is a huge game for UCF to bounce back from last week and send a message to the rest of the Big 12 by beating up on a lesser-talented conference opponent.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and UCF match up statistically:

Baylor Offense vs. UCF Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	98	72
Line Yards	78	68
Pass Success	113	56
Havoc	61	99
Finishing Drives	118	109
Quality Drives	77	57

UCF Offense vs. Baylor Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	11	89
Line Yards	30	88
Pass Success	21	87
Havoc	43	48
Finishing Drives	62	125
Quality Drives	7	103

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	110	88
PFF Coverage	125	82
Special Teams SP+	96	8
Middle 8	86	11
Seconds per Play	26.2 (57)	24.2 (21)
Rush Rate	48.0% (101)	59.9% (21)

I definitely lean on laying the wood with UCF in this spot, especially since I think the Bounce House will be rocking.

However, I think the best angle to take in this game is the over.

I realize Baylor's offense has been extremely inept, but I think it still possesses enough talent to exploit UCF's shady defense.

Also, if Shapen suits up for the Bears, the offense should receive a boost.

UCF should be able to score at will in this matchup, and all signs point to a lot of explosive plays with a ton of possessions.

Take the over before it crosses another key number, and let's get rockin' in the Bounce House.