College Football Odds: BJ Cunningham’s NCAAF Picks & Predictions for Duke vs Florida State, Michigan vs Michigan State, More

We have another stellar college football slate in Week 8.

There's plenty of betting value across the board for Saturday's schedule, and Action Network staff writer BJ Cunningham broke down five games on the docket:

• UCF vs. No. 6 Oklahoma
• No. 8 Texas vs. Houston
• No. 16 Duke vs. No. 4 Florida State
• No. 2 Michigan vs. Michigan State
• Clemson vs. Miami.

Cunningham came through with two total picks, two team totals and a spread bet for Saturday's Week 8 slate. So, without further ado, let's dive into Cunningham's Week 8 Action Network betting card.

BJ Cunningham's NCAAF Betting Card

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network staff writer BJ Cunningham is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Oklahoma looks to stay undefeated and keep its hopes of both a Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance alive when it hosts UCF in Norman.

UCF is coming off a bye, but the last time it was in action, Kansas ran all over it for 399 rushing yards and 51 points. The Knights are on a three-game losing streak to open their inaugural Big 12 season and now they have to go play one of the best offenses in the country.

Gus Malzahn has had two weeks to get things sorted out, so we'll see if there's some type of response from UCF.

Oklahoma is also coming off a bye after beating its rival Texas two weeks ago to remain undefeated.

The schedule for the Sooners is really favorable — they currently don't face a ranked team for the remainder of the regular season — so it's important that they stay focused week in and week out to avoid getting tripped up before the Big 12 Championship.

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John Rhys Plumlee will get the start against Oklahoma on Saturday after being pulled from the Kansas game in the first quarter. It was very clear that he was struggling, and with UCF already down 24-0, Malzahn decided to try to avoid making the problem worse than it already is.

If Plumlee is healthy, he's an incredibly dynamic quarterback that can cause some problems for the Oklahoma defense.

Plumlee has really only played two games this season, but if we go back to last year, he ran for almost 1,000 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per carry.

He's a decent thrower and loves to take deep shots down the field. In 2022, he had 19 Big Time Throws with 44% of his pass attempts being over 10+ yards. He was very successful in doing so as well, putting up a 91.8 PFF passing grade on throws over 20+ yards in the air.

However, UCF's ground game is its best chance at finding success in this contest.

Plumlee is going to carry the ball a lot, but RJ Harvey is an incredible running back who's putting up some fantastic numbers this season. Harvey ran for 133 yards on only 16 carries against Kansas two weeks ago and is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on the season.

UCF also has a big-play back in Johnny Richardson, who's averaging an absurd 8.3 yards per carry on 53 attempts.

Big plays in the run game are going to be key for UCF because while Oklahoma's defense has been incredible this season, it's been vulnerable to explosive rushing plays.

The Knights' defense has been exposed now that we're in Big 12 play. The last three games against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas, the Knights have given up a combined 131 points and 1,472 yards.

The main problem is they cannot stop anybody on the ground. Like I already mentioned, Kansas ran for 399 yards against them. Kansas State also ran for 281 yards. On the season, UCF is 123rd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Defensive Line Yards, so the Sooners should have a field day on the ground.

The Knights have been decent against the pass, but they haven't faced a passing attack or quarterback at the level of Dillon Gabriel, and they still only rank 74th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.

Gabriel is now the second favorite to win the Heisman, and rightfully so, because he's been putting up some incredible numbers.

Gabriel is third in college football in EPA behind only Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels, is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has Oklahoma fourth in Passing Success Rate.

He's been spreading the ball around too, as no Oklahoma receiver has more than 30 catches on the season.

This is a big revenge game. Not only for Gabriel — who is facing his former team — but also for offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby — who was with Gabriel at UCF. The principles of Lebby's offense is to play as fast of a tempo as possible, as Oklahoma currently sits 16th in the nation in seconds per play.

The rushing attack has struggled to get going for the Sooners, as it's only averaging 4.1 yards per carry. But if there was ever a front seven to find success against, it's UCF's.

The main reason why Oklahoma's offense has been so good is because of how efficient it's been in the opponents' territory. The Sooners are 13th in Finishing Drives, averaging 4.86 points per scoring opportunity.

UCF is 103rd in that same category defensively, so Oklahoma should be able to walk into the end zone once it crosses the Knights' 40-yard line.

Brent Venables has really turned around the Oklahoma defense, but let's be honest, the Sooners haven't really faced many top-tier offenses. Sure, the Sooners are 20th in Success Rate Allowed, but Texas is the only offense that they've played so far that's in the top 50 in EPA/Play.

They've been one of the best teams in the country at stopping opponents' runs at the line of scrimmage, but they continue to surrender big plays in the run game, ranking 85th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. That is a big problem against UCF.

The pace of this game is going to be incredibly fast, with both teams ranking inside the top 20 in seconds per play.

Oklahoma has so many advantages offensively, but its ability to finish off scoring drives against a very bad UCF defense is going to be the key to covering a big number.

Even though UCF has given up a massive amount of points and yards in Big 12 play, its offense has still been efficient and effective, ranking 18th in Quality Drives.

The Knights will be able to break off some big plays in the running game on Saturday, and having their star quarterback back healthy and active is a massive boost to their offense after he basically missed the last four games.

So, with a fast pace and both offenses having advantages, I like the Over.

The Texas Longhorns look to rebound from their loss to the Oklahoma Sooners two weeks ago when they make the short trip to take on the Houston Cougars.

The Longhorns had the game right in their hands but let it slip away as Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners drove down with 1:19 left and no timeouts to score in the final seconds.

The loss was definitely a blow, but the Longhorns are still in a decent position to make the Big 12 Championship game and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff. It's pretty simple, the Longhorns can't afford a loss for the rest of the regular season, and that starts on Saturday against the Cougars.

Houston played a crazy game against West Virginia in its last game, winning on a last-second Hail Mary to get its first ever Big 12 win.

However, it's been a pretty difficult season for the Cougars, who are sitting at 3-3 coming into this game. Dana Holgorsen's team is really struggling on the defense, which could be problematic against a talented Texas offense.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Texas vs. Houston below.

The Longhorns' offense hasn't been as good as many predicted coming into the season. With that being said, the Longhorns are 28th in EPA/Play and eighth in Quality Drives.

Their problem is that they're relying a little too much on explosive plays (39th in Success Rate vs. 15th in Explosiveness) and are struggling to finish on their scoring opportunities, ranking 75th in Finishing Drives.

Quinn Ewers has been solid this season, as he's averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. It may be a little concerning that he only has six Big Time Throws, but that's by design because he's one of the best intermediate passers in college football.

As a result, Ewers is 11th in college football in EPA and has a 87.2% Catchable Pass Percentage, which is also top 20 in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.

He should throw all over this Houston secondary that has some of the worst pass defense numbers in the Power Five, such as ranking 124th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

The Longhorns' rushing attack has struggled a bit this season, ranking 74th in Rushing Success Rate and 90th in Offensive Line Yards. However, they have played the fourth-hardest strength of schedule this season, and their opponents are allowing an average of just 4.1 yards per carry.

Texas' defense has been sound in all aspects this year, including ranking in the top 35 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed.

The Longhorns have done a fantastic job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities by allowing only 2.33 points on drives that end inside their own 40-yard line, which is the seventh-best mark in the country.

Donovan Smith has without a doubt been improving as the season has gone along. In his first three games, his PFF Passing Grade was under 65, he averaged fewer than seven yards per attempt and he had an Adjusted Completion Percentage just over 73%.

However, in his last three games, his PFF Passing Grade has been over 70, he's averaged over eight yards per attempt and his Adjusted Completion Percentage has been closer to 80%.

The biggest key for Smith is staying upright and throwing in the pocket. Although he's a mobile quarterback who can get out and run (averaging 5.0 yards per carry), there's a pretty big difference in his success in the pocket vs. outside of it.

Data via Sports Info Solutions

Why is that important? Smith has been under pressure or forced out of the pocket on 29.1% of his attempts this season, and when he's forced out of the pocket, the results are not pretty.

Texas is 22nd in the country in PFF Pass Rushing Grade, so it may be a tough day for Smith, who's also facing the best secondary he's seen so far this season.

The Houston rushing attack has really struggled to get going. Holgorsen is using a three-back committee, but the Cougars are 76th in Rushing Success Rate, 73rd in Offensive Line Yards and 108th in EPA/Rush.

Houston's defense has gotten absolutely torched this season time and time again. The Cougars are allowing 6.0 yards per play and rank 117th in EPA/Play Allowed.

They're struggling to stop both the run and the pass, but the secondary is especially poor, as it's allowing 8.1 yards per attempt and ranks 117th with a 47.1% Positive EPA Play percentage.

So, how on earth are they going to stop Ewers?

I'm not really sure how Houston stops Texas in this game. Ewers may not be throwing the ball deep at a high rate, but the constant 10-to-19 yard passes against a bottom-20 secondary in college football is a nightmare scenario and one that I'm not sure the Cougars can stop.

Sure, Texas has issues finishing drives, but it's more encouraging that it ranks among the top 10 in the nation in Quality Drives, especially while playing the fourth-hardest schedule in the country.

In addition, Houston is 116th in Finishing Drives Allowed, so Texas will have a fantastic opportunity to put a ton of points on the board as Ewers has a big day.

I have Texas projected for 47.1 points in this game, so I love the value on its team total over 41.5 points on FanDuel.

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Pick: Texas Team Total Over 41.5

Two of the last three remaining undefeated teams in ACC play meet Saturday, as No. 16 Duke travels to Tallahassee to take on No. 4 Florida State.

Despite being down their starting quarterback, the Blue Devils picked up a huge 24-3 win over NC State in their last game. The question surrounding this game is whether or not Riley Leonard is going to play. If he does, it would be a huge boost to Duke and give it a real shot at pulling off an upset.

Florida State has already passed its two biggest tests of the season, beating LSU and Clemson. Now, it's in a perfect position to go undefeated and potentially reach the College Football Playoff.

The Seminoles destroyed Syracuse, 41-3, in their last game and will be looking to do the same here to pick up another resume-building win.

This game really comes down to Leonard's status for the Duke offense.

He was on the field warming up against NC State but ultimately did not play. Head coach Mike Elko keeps saying he's day-to-day, and there are major question marks on how effective he would actually be if he does play.

He badly injured his ankle against Notre Dame and was noticeably limping in warmups against NC State. He already has carried the ball 28 times in five games and is a big part of the RPO and zone read game, so if he's not going to be effective as a runner, that's a problem because there are questions about Duke's ability to protect him.

Leonard is typically pretty good at escaping the pocket and either running or throwing outside the pocket, but he's going to be in trouble if he can't do that in this game.

Granted, it's a small sample size, but in 21 dropbacks in which he's been pressured in the pocket, he has a completion percentage of just 33.3% and is averaging 3.1 yards per attempt with a -0.90 EPA/Pass.

So, if Leonard doesn't play, that means freshman Henry Belin IV is going to get the start after attempting only 12 passes in the win against NC State.

The Duke secondary has been outstanding this season and has faced some pretty good quarterbacks. Duke has the best coverage grade of any team in college football, per PFF, allowing only 5.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

It has shut down Clemson's Cade Klubnik and Notre Dame's Sam Hartman, so it should have a solid chance of shutting down Florida State's Jordan Travis as well.

The Florida State offense has been good, but it's pretty reliant on explosive plays. The Seminoles are second in the country in explosive plays but 48th in Success Rate.

That problem came full circle in their game against Clemson, as the Tigers didn't allow them to pick up those explosive plays. In turn, Florida State had a Success Rate of just 37% for the game.

The rushing attack has broken off some big plays, but ranks of 99th in Success Rate, 88th in Offensive Line Yards and 47th in EPA/Rush is concerning. Duke's front seven has struggled to stop the run, so I'm guessing you'll see a high rush rate from the Seminoles on Saturday night.

Travis hasn't really played to the level that he did last season. He's currently sitting 26th in EPA/Pass and has a Positive EPA per Play percentage of just 45.5%, which ranks outside the top 60.

He has Florida State sitting at 42nd in Passing Success Rate, and now he's going to face one of the best secondaries in the country that held Notre Dame's Hartman to just 222 yards passing and no touchdowns on 30 attempts.

The Florida State defense has been solid this season. It's struggled a bit versus the run, especially giving up explosive plays, ranking 110th in rushing explosiveness. However, it's still inside the top 50 in EPA/Rush Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

The Seminoles rank top-25 in both Finishing Drives Allowed and Quality Drives Allowed, mainly because of a secondary that's allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt and ranks 16th in EPA/Pass Allowed.

The pace of this game should be pretty slow with Duke ranking outside the top 100 in seconds per play and Florida State playing at a below-average pace as well.

This really comes down to Leonard's availability. If he's available, I highly doubt he's going to be 100% and be able to move like he did before the high ankle sprain. If he doesn't play, Belin is a limited passer and will make Duke one-dimensional.

The flip side is that Florida State has advantages on the ground, even if it's struggling from a Success Rate standpoint.

Even though Travis is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country, throwing on this Duke secondary hasn't been easy for anyone this season. If the Seminoles keep it on the ground, the clock will continue to move.

With the pace being slow and both teams likely to feature their ground game quite often, I like the value on under 49.5 points.

Michigan looks to stay undefeated when it makes the short trip to take on its in-state rival Michigan State.

Michigan is on cruise control right now. It's sitting at 7-0, is ranked No. 2 in the country and hasn't allowed a single opponent to score more than 10 points.

The Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation, and it's going to be a very difficult finish with Penn State and Ohio State being two of their final three games.

Meanwhile, it's a mess in East Lansing right now. The Spartans have fired Mel Tucker, they're sitting at 2-4 and to make matters worse, they just blew a 24-6 fourth quarter lead at Rutgers last week.

While things are going about as bad as they can go for the Spartans, this is a rivalry game, and historically, it's been close, which has led to moments like this.

The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense.

The Wolverines run the ball on 61.9% of their offensive plays and are playing at the second-slowest pace in the country — only behind Air Force — running a play every 31.9 seconds.

The offense isn't necessarily built on big plays; it's built on positive EPA plays over and over again. Michigan is currently sitting 109th in Explosiveness, but on 53.3% of its offensive plays, it's generating a positive EPA, which is top-10 in the nation.

Blake Corum is having an amazing season as the lead back, carrying the ball for a 5.7 yards per carry average, 12 touchdowns and a 85.1 PFF rushing grade.

When he's called upon to throw, J.J. McCarthy is one of the country's most efficient passers. He's averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and owns a 90.6 PFF passing grade with an 81% adjusted completion percentage.

He's at his best when he's getting outside the pocket. Only Graham Mertz has a better EPA/Pass than McCarthy on attempts outside the pocket, per Sports Info Solutions.

Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country, and it's pretty crazy that we're heading into game eight on its schedule with no team being able to score more than 10 points against it.

What makes the Wolverines so good is limiting opponents' scoring opportunities. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in Finishing Drives Allowed and second in Quality Drives Allowed.

The Wolverines have only allowed their opponents to finish a drive inside their 40-yard-line 21 times this season, and they've only allowed a total of 18 points on those 21 drives, which is mind boggling to think about.

The Wolverines are a top-10 pass and run defense by just about every advanced metric, so it's really hard to see not only how Michigan State is going to the move the ball but how it's going to score.

Struggling is the word that I would use to describe the Spartans offense right now.

They have a pretty nice balance between the run and the pass, but neither has been effective whatsoever.

Due to Noah Kim's struggles, Katin Houser got the start against Rutgers. Even though he threw two touchdown passes, he was incredibly inefficient, averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt and a 66.7% adjusted completion percentage.

He's not really an upgrade on Kim, and Michigan State is sitting 77th in Passing Success Rate and 70th in EPA/Pass, so how is it going to throw the ball against Michigan's secondary?

The rushing attack has been much worse off than the passing attack, as Michigan State is outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry.

To make matters even worse, when the Spartans do get in the opponents' territory, they can't score efficiently at all, ranking 106th in Finishing Drives. It's not like the quality of their drives have been good to begin with, as they rank 103rd in that category.

As bad as the offense has been, the Spartans' defense has been pretty decent because of its ability to stop the run. Michigan State is only allowing 3.6 yards per carry and is sixth in the nation in explosive rushing allowed.

That in turn has it inside the top 10 in EPA/Rush Allowed, which is huge against a Michigan team that's going to run the ball over 60% of the time.

The secondary has struggled at times — it's 95th in terms of a PFF coverage grade — so the real battle will be the Spartans getting pressure on McCarthy. The Spartans have a top-30 pressure rate, but have one of the lowest sack rates in the nation.

They've struggled to get home and with a quarterback who has the escapability of McCarthy, it may be a long day for their secondary.

This is a really difficult spot for Michigan State. There are major concerns about how often it's actually going to have the ball, given how slow of a pace Michigan is playing at. The Wolverines are controlling time of possession at 53.3%, which is top-25 in the country.

The Michigan State offense has been so inefficient this season, and with a new quarterback making just his second start of the season, I'm not sure how it's going to effectively throw the ball on a top-10 secondary.

Then you have to ask the question: Can Michigan State run the ball effectively? No, it can't given it's outside the top 100 in a lot of rushing metrics.

Finally, Michigan State's inability to finish off scoring drives going up against the best defense at preventing them is a really bad situation all around for the Spartans.

I only have Michigan State projected for 8.3 points in this game, so I like the little bit of value on its team total Under 10.5 (FanDuel).

Pick: Michigan State Team Total Under 10.5

Two teams having incredibly disappointing seasons meet in Coral Gables on Saturday as Clemson takes on Miami.

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney tried to damper expectations this week for the fan base by saying they have "unrealistic expectations," as Clemson will miss the College Football Playoff for a third consecutive season.

With two losses already in the ACC, it's pretty unlikely that the Tigers make the ACC Championship unless they win out and get some help.

Miami suffered a catastrophic loss to Georgia Tech two weeks ago. The Canes could have just kneeled the ball but instead ran the ball and fumbled it, allowing the Yellow Jackets to throw a touchdown pass as time expired to cap off one of the most inexcusable losses of all time.

They followed that up by turning the ball over repeatedly against North Carolina, losing 41-31. So, if there was ever a spot to turn around the season, it's at home on Saturday night against Clemson.

If you could point to a reason why the Tigers offense has struggled, it's their ability to take advantage of their scoring opportunities. Clemson has had 42 drives end inside its opponent's 40-yard line but has averaged only 3.6 points per scoring drive, which is 75th in the nation.

The rushing attack, though, has been very successful.

Will Shipley has continued to be efficient in the backfield, averaging 5.1 yards per carry to help Clemson rank 16th in Rushing Success Rate. However, the Tigers haven't been a very explosive rushing attack, ranking 96th in rushing explosiveness, which is something Miami is good at limiting defensively.

So, that means a lot of the pressure will be on quarterback Cade Klubnik to deliver in this game, which is not a position Clemson wants to be in.

Klubnik has been well below average this season, putting up just 6.4 yards per attempt while recording a negative EPA/Pass on the season.

Image via PFF.

The biggest problem for Klubnik is that he struggles under pressure. He's been under pressure on 31% of his snaps this season and has a 39% completion percentage on those plays while averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt and recording six turnover-worthy plays.

Miami features a really good secondary, so this will likely be a long night for the Clemson offense.

The Clemson defense has been solid this season, ranking 14th in EPA/Play. However, there are some issues, and they start up front.

Clemson is doing a poor job of controlling the line of scrimmage, ranking 97th in Stuff Rate and 35th in Defensive Line Yards.

It also hasn't been good in third-and-short or fourth-and-short situations, ranking 129th in Power Success Rate Allowed, which measures the percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converts a first down or scores a touchdown. First- and second-and-goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included, per CollegeFootballData.

Even though the last two games have been a nightmare with plenty of comedic errors, this Miami team is still really good. The Hurricanes are eighth in EPA/Play and have been very successful both running and throwing the ball.

Tyler Van Dyke has been one of the better passers in college football this season. He has a PFF passing grade of 91.2 and ranks 22nd in EPA/Pass because of his ability to throw the deep ball.

Van Dyke is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with 17 big-time throws, which is the fourth most in college football. He leads college football on passes over 20 yards in the air with a 96.4 PFF passing grade while averaging 19.9 yards per attempt on those throws.

Even though Van Dyke has been great, the real advantage in this game for Miami is going to be in the trenches. The Canes' offensive line ranks fourth in Offensive Line Yards, third in Stuff Rate Allowed and 10th in terms of a PFF run-blocking grade.

Most importantly, nobody has been better than the Hurricanes in those third- or fourth-and-short situations, as Miami leads the nation in Power Success Rate.

The Miami defense has been good from a Success Rate standpoint, but where it's struggled is defending in its own end of the field. The Canes rank 92nd in Finishing Drives Allowed, which is real a problem. However, with Clemson struggling to score in the red zone, we could have a bit of a stalemate.

Miami will need to stop the run in this game to put the pressure on Klubnik, which it can do. Miami allows only 3.5 yards per carry while ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 10th in Defensive Line Yards.

This is the bottom of the market on Miami after what has transpired in the last two games.

Here's the question I'd like to pose: If the Hurricanes simply kneel the ball against Georgia Tech and don't turn the ball over four times against North Carolina, where is this line sitting? My guess is Miami would probably be favored at home.

The Canes will have the advantages in the trenches, along with advantages on third and fourth down, which is going to be incredibly key in this game.

On top of that, Klubnik has been well below average and won't be able to light up the Miami secondary, which puts pressure on a Clemson rushing attack that hasn't been elite by any stretch of the imagination.

I have Miami projected at a -1.1 favorite, so I like the value on Miami +3 at home.

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