Sam Houston vs Houston Odds, Prediction: Why to Bet Bearkats
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston’s Donovan Smith.
Sam Houston vs Houston Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Two Texas teams separated by one hour with one combined win on the season will meet on Saturday night in Houston.
Which will bounce back to avoid an early season three-game losing streak? Let's first take a closer look at each team before diving into where I see value from a betting perspective.
Sam Houston — which went 21-1 with a national title in the 2021 calendar year — sat out many of its key players last season in preparation for the jump to the FBS level.
Through two games, one side of the ball looks ready to compete at this level, while the other doesn't.
The defense has looked fantastic, and the advanced metrics back up the eye test. Even more impressive is the fact that it shut down two completely different offensive attacks in BYU and Air Force, which have each looked fairly competent on that side of the ball in their other games.
However, while the Sam Houston defense has thrived, the same can't be said for the offense, which simply can't move the ball and has tallied only three total points to date.
The Bearkats rank dead last in the country in many advanced offensive metrics, but all you need to know is they rank dead last in rush yards per attempt (1.4) and their quarterback has thrown for less than 200 yards total in two games with no touchdowns and three interceptions.
So far, this looks like the Group of 5 version of some of the Iowa teams we've seen in the past with elite defenses and anemic offenses.
Something is seriously off with this 1-2 Houston squad. After a lucky win over UTSA in the season-opener in which it finished with a sub-30% post-game win probability thanks to 17 gifted points in a 17-14 victory, Houston then lost outright to Rice after falling behind 28-0.
Then, in what you'd think would be a great bounce-back spot on paper, it laid a complete egg in its Big 12 debut at home against the defending national runner-up TCU. The 36-13 final score doesn't even do the Horned Frogs justice in how much they dominated a Houston club that didn't score an offensive touchdown for the first time since 2014.
Based on some of the quotes I've seen from head coach Dana Holgorsen, he might have lost this locker room and might be on his way out the door sooner rather than later.
There's something seriously wrong with the offense, which grades out poorly across the board.
The Cougars obviously miss Clayton Tune and Tank Dell — both now on NFL rosters — and Texas Tech transfer quarterback Donovan Smith has yet to live up to expectations despite flashing plenty of potential in the past. He also just might not be fully healthy, as he alluded to an oblique injury after last week's game.
That's bad news for an offense that simply can't run the ball. Through three games, the Coogs have managed only 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground, which ranks 117th in the country.
The defense has also taken a step back after losing its top pass rushers and a pair of defensive backs to the NFL.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and Houston match up statistically:
Sam Houston Offense vs. Houston Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 132 | 118 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 133 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 133 | 107 |
Houston Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 4 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 131 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 30 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 89 | 85 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 76 | 76 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.8 (124) | 23.6 (15) |
| Rush Rate | 53.5% (87) | 47.9% (122) |
Sam Houston vs Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
From a situational spot perspective, the advantage has to go to Sam Houston.
The Bearkats had two weeks to prepare for this game following a well-timed early-season bye. I'm sure they worked diligently on the offense and potentially even made a quarterback change out of the break by going to former Arizona starter Grant Gunnell. I'm not sure how you don't at least give him a shot.
Regardless, the bye week should also help rejuvenate this awesome defense that had to play way too many snaps over the first two weeks.
Meanwhile, Houston is coming off an embarrassing loss to TCU with a game against Texas Tech — one that the Cougars talked about all offseason — on deck. This is definitely a potential sandwich spot where Houston comes out a bit flat, which wouldn't be the first time we've seen that from Houston.
Holgorsen's clubs have generally come out super uninspired and underprepared for inferior opponents. Just like we saw against Rice, his teams have a propensity for digging an early hole and trying to climb out of it against inferior competition. For what it's worth, Holgorsen is just 17-27-1 against the spread as a favorite of 10 or more points.
I'm sure Sam Houston will come into this game with much more enthusiasm.
Plus, from a matchup perspective, Houston can't run the ball and Sam Houston ranks in the top three nationally in both Success Rate and explosiveness on passing downs, so it could be another long day for the Cougar offense.
Despite the offensive concerns, I'll happily go back to the well with SHSU catching double-digits for a third straight time, especially in a game with a total of 38.
This line is in a dead zone, so I'm waiting to see if it goes back up before locking in a bet. I'd play the Kats down to +11.5.
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