Texas vs Houston Picks & Odds: How to Bet the Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns look to rebound from their loss to the Oklahoma Sooners two weeks ago when they make the short trip to take on a new in-state conference rival in the Houston Cougars.

The Longhorns had the game right in their hands but let it slip away as Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners drove down with 1:19 left and no timeouts to score in the final seconds.

The loss was definitely a blow, but the Longhorns are still in a decent position to make the Big 12 Championship game and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff. It's pretty simple, the Longhorns can't afford a loss for the rest of the regular season, and that starts on Saturday against the Cougars.

Houston played a crazy game against West Virginia in its last game, winning on a last-second Hail Mary to get its first ever Big 12 win.

However, it's been a pretty difficult season for the Cougars, who are sitting at 3-3 coming into this game. Dana Holgorsen's team is really struggling on the defense, which could be problematic against a talented Texas offense.

Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Texas vs. Houston below.

The Longhorns' offense hasn't been as good as many predicted coming into the season. With that being said, the Longhorns are 28th in EPA/Play and eighth in Quality Drives.

Their problem is that they're relying a little too much on explosive plays (39th in Success Rate vs. 15th in Explosiveness) and are struggling to finish on their scoring opportunities, ranking 75th in Finishing Drives.

Quinn Ewers has been solid this season, as he's averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. It may be a little concerning that he only has six Big Time Throws, but that's by design because he's one of the best intermediate passers in college football.

As a result, Ewers is 11th in college football in EPA and has a 87.2% Catchable Pass Percentage, which is also top 20 in FBS, per Sports Info Solutions.

He should throw all over this Houston secondary that has some of the worst pass defense numbers in the Power Five, such as ranking 124th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.

The Longhorns' rushing attack has struggled a bit this season, ranking 74th in Rushing Success Rate and 90th in Offensive Line Yards. However, they have played the fourth-hardest strength of schedule this season, and their opponents are allowing an average of just 4.1 yards per carry.

Texas' defense has been sound in all aspects this year, including ranking in the top 35 in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush Allowed.

The Longhorns have done a fantastic job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities by allowing only 2.33 points on drives that end inside their own 40-yard line, which is the seventh-best mark in the country.

Donovan Smith has without a doubt been improving as the season has gone along. In his first three games, his PFF Passing Grade was under 65, he averaged fewer than seven yards per attempt and he had an Adjusted Completion Percentage just over 73%.

However, in his last three games, his PFF Passing Grade has been over 70, he's averaged over eight yards per attempt and his Adjusted Completion Percentage has been closer to 80%.

The biggest key for Smith is staying upright and throwing in the pocket. Although he's a mobile quarterback who can get out and run (averaging 5.0 yards per carry), there's a pretty big difference in his success in the pocket vs. outside of it.

Data via Sports Info Solutions

Why is that important? Smith has been under pressure or forced out of the pocket on 29.1% of his attempts this season, and when he's forced out of the pocket, the results are not pretty.

Texas is 22nd in the country in PFF Pass Rushing Grade, so it may be a tough day for Smith, who's also facing the best secondary he's seen so far this season.

The Houston rushing attack has really struggled to get going. Holgorsen is using a three-back committee, but the Cougars are 76th in Rushing Success Rate, 73rd in Offensive Line Yards and 108th in EPA/Rush.

Houston's defense has gotten absolutely torched this season time and time again. The Cougars are allowing 6.0 yards per play and rank 117th in EPA/Play Allowed.

They're struggling to stop both the run and the pass, but the secondary is especially poor, as it's allowing 8.1 yards per attempt and ranks 117th with a 47.1% Positive EPA Play percentage.

So, how on earth are they going to stop Ewers?

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Houston match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Houston Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	74	88
Line Yards	90	72
Pass Success	32	124
Havoc	57	86
Finishing Drives	75	116
Quality Drives	4	90

Houston Offense vs. Texas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	76	19
Line Yards	73	14
Pass Success	50	31
Havoc	40	88
Finishing Drives	110	7
Quality Drives	73	28

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	76	100
PFF Coverage	68	78
Special Teams SP+	31	92
Middle 8	63	53
Seconds per Play	25.9 (54)	25.2 (33)
Rush Rate	54.6% (63)	47.3% (118)

I'm not really sure how Houston stops Texas in this game. Ewers may not be throwing the ball deep at a high rate, but the constant 10-to-19 yard passes against a bottom-20 secondary in college football is a nightmare scenario and one that I'm not sure the Cougars can stop.

Sure, Texas has issues finishing drives, but it's more encouraging that it ranks among the top 10 in the nation in Quality Drives, especially while playing the fourth-hardest schedule in the country.

In addition, Houston is 116th in Finishing Drives Allowed, so Texas will have a fantastic opportunity to put a ton of points on the board as Ewers has a big day.

I have Texas projected for 47.1 points in this game, so I love the value on its team total over 41.5 points on FanDuel.

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Pick: Texas Team Total Over 41.5