Texas Tech vs Kansas Odds, Prediction: Bet This Short Favorite

The Kansas Jayhawks look to stay in Big 12 Championship contention when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday in Lawrence.

It's pretty simple for the Red Raiders; they need to win two of their last three games against Kansas, UCF and Texas to secure bowl eligibility. They got a huge win last Thursday against TCU to keep those hopes alive and now have a chance to play spoiler against Kansas.

Kansas' win at Iowa State, combined with Oklahoma's loss in Bedlam, means Kansas is now just one game behind both Texas and Oklahoma State for a potential spot in the Big 12 Championship. However, this is also a huge lookahead spot for Kansas with in-state rival Kansas State looming next weekend.

Find my betting pick, prediction and preview for Texas Tech vs. Kansas State below.

Behren Morton has been a very average passer this season in Zach Kittley's system. Morton is only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt with just six Big Time Throws on the season. About 63% of his throws are coming under 10 yards, and his lack of efficiency in the short passing game is concerning.

There is also a pretty drastic difference between Morton's performance with a clean pocket versus when he is pressured.

Data via Sports Info Solutions

The biggest key for Texas Tech has been its ability to run the ball effectively. Lead back Tahj Brooks has already rushed for over 1,000 yards and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Red Raiders' offensive line has done a great job blocking up front, ranking inside the top 40 in both offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. They will need to run the ball effectively to win this game.

The Texas Tech defense has been very average this season as it ranks 61st in Success Rate Allowed and 71st in EPA/Play Allowed.

The Red Raiders must stop the run in this game, which they have done to some success this season. However, the last time they faced a good rushing attack, it was not pretty as Kansas State ran for 272 yards on 47 carries, and quarterback Avery Johnson rushed for five touchdowns.

In the following game against BYU, they Cougars ran for over five yards per carry, which is embarrassing because the Cougars are 130th in Rushing Success Rate this season.

Texas Tech has also struggled versus the pass, ranking 87th in PFF Coverage Grade and 82nd in Passing Explosiveness Allowed. Facing a quarterback like Jason Bean who can throw the ball down the field is going to be a problem.

Kansas' offense has been awesome this season because of its elite rushing attack. The Jayhawks run the ball on 60.2% of their offensive snaps and sit among the top 20 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and EPA/Rush.

Running back Devin Neal is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has forced 38 missed tackles already this season. Kansas is an incredibly difficult offense to prepare for because it uses more pre-snap motion than any team in the country, which is one of the reasons why its offense has been so effective.

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Texas Tech is pretty average against the run, which means more of the offense will fall on Bean; this is actually a positive because he's been an incredibly efficient passer. He doesn't attempt a high number of passes, but he is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and is in the top 40 in EPA among quarterbacks who have thrown 100 or more passes

Overall, the Jayhawks defense has struggled, but they actually looked pretty impressive in Ames last weekend when they held the Cyclones to just 2.6 yards per carry. This was a massive improvement from their three previous games against Oklahoma State, UCF and Oklahoma as they allowed 5.3 yards per carry over that span.

The biggest key for Kansas in this game will be generating pressure on Morton. The Jayhawks are among the top 50 in both Pressure Rate and Havoc created, and if they cause problems, it will help out their secondary a ton.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Kansas match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	36	96
Line Yards	17	101
Pass Success	75	69
Havoc	20	6
Finishing Drives	47	107
Quality Drives	76	114

Kansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	17	51
Line Yards	15	59
Pass Success	8	59
Havoc	27	98
Finishing Drives	28	73
Quality Drives	24	63

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	17	101
PFF Coverage	87	52
Special Teams SP+	37	69
Middle 8	47	27
Seconds per Play	22.8 (8)	29.2 (105)
Rush Rate	50.4% (91)	60.2% (15)

The market is not giving Kansas enough love here because this is a lookahead spot following two huge wins.

The worry here for Texas Tech is what happens if it falls behind and has to throw the ball more than it wants to. The Tech rushing attack could give Kansas a lot of problems here, but putting the ball in Morton's hands is not a recipe for success.

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He had maybe his best game of the season against TCU last Thursday night, but it was because he was playing with a lead for most of the game. Even when the Red Raiders fell behind 21-20, they got the ball in plus territory and ran it with Brooks twice to take the lead back.

Plus, if the Jayhawks put pressure on Morton and generate a lot of havoc, like they've done so well all season, it's hard for me to see the Red Raiders keeping up with one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

Kansas is one of the most dangerous teams with a lead because of its rushing attack and Bean's passing.

I have Kansas projected at 7.1-point favorite, so I like the value on the Jayhawks at -3.5 on FanDuel.