College Football Betting Odds, Predictions: Thursday Picks for ECU vs SMU, Houston vs WVU
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network. Pictured (clockwise from top-left): West Virginia’s CJ Donaldson, Houston’s Donovan Smith, East Carolina’s Mason Garcia and SMU’s Preston Stone.
Thursdays are for football.
Along with Thursday night’s NFL game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs, we have two college football games on the docket: West Virginia vs. Houston and SMU vs. East Carolina.
Our writers broke down both games via in-depth previews and came through with picks for each matchup.
Read on for both Thursday night college football breakdowns — and hopefully we’ll end up cashing some tickets with you.
Thursday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's college football slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
West Virginia vs. Houston
By Doug Ziefel
The West Virginia Mountaineers have gotten off to a hot start in conference play, as they've picked up back-to-back victories over TCU and Texas Tech.
They will look to continue their winning ways across the state of Texas on Thursday as they take on the Houston Cougars.
Speaking of the Cougars, they come into this matchup off a much-needed bye week after their loss to Texas Tech. Houston was in a prime spot to succeed against the Red Raiders but instead lost by three scores.
Now, with a matchup against an opponent that has defeated the same teams the Cougars lost to in conference play, can they rally with the extra time to prepare?
Let's take a closer look at West Virginia vs. Houston to find out which side holds betting value in this Thursday night college football matchup.
When looking at the Mountaineers offensively, it's clear they want to keep the ball on the ground. They'll do so with a variety of ball carriers.
The first player to highlight is running back CJ Donaldson Jr. The sophomore averages nearly 17 carries a game and has picked up nearly 4.7 yards per carry on the season.
We should see Donaldson get plenty of work in this matchup, as the Mountaineers not only rush at the fourth-highest rate in the country but also have a significant edge on the ground. WVU will get a consistent push up front with an offensive line that outranks the Cougars, 53-92, in Line Yards on this side of the ball.
However, the Cougars' rush defense woes may not stop at the first level. They're also 92nd in yards per rush allowed and 97th in tackling, per PFF.
What will amplify this edge is the mobility of quarterback Garrett Greene.
Greene missed about two full games with an ankle injury, but he was shifty his last time out. He rushed for 80 yards against TCU and found paydirt twice in that matchup.
His ability to extend plays and scramble will compound the Cougars' defensive flaws and could also create openings downfield, as Houston ranks 102nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
When you look at the Cougars on offense, you see a stark contrast from the Mountaineers.
Houston throws the ball at the 29th-highest rate in the country, and that's because it likes to keep the ball in the hands of its best playmaker, quarterback Donovan Smith.
Smith is much like Greene in that he's very mobile and is a real threat to use his legs any time he drops back. Smith has also been excellent as a passer in Houston, coming in with a completion percentage of 65% and a passer rating of 135.9.
This game, however, could be Smith's toughest test yet from a passing perspective. The Mountaineers rank second in the nation in completion percentage allowed and 30th in yards per pass allowed.
They've made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks and have proven they can stay stout even when giving up a completion or two.
West Virginia sits 23rd in Defensive Finishing Drives, and that could be the difference here if it can hold Houston to three points when it should score six.
West Virginia vs Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
This line has held firm, as it bounced around the key number of three all week. However, I see value in West Virginia even at -3, as the Mountaineers have the potential to control this game.
Their consistent rushing attack will keep Houston off the field and punish a Cougars defense that has yet to prove itself against the ground game.
On the other side, Smith has played well, but he could struggle with the extra time off. A few stalled drives will cost the Cougars in the long run.
Give me the Mountaineers to cover on the road.
SMU vs. East Carolina
By Cody Goggin
On Thursday night, we'll see SMU go on the road to take on East Carolina in an AAC clash.
These teams have had similar struggles this year. Each side has had to replace its veteran quarterback and rely on its defense to keep its sputtering offense alive.
With the strengths of the teams lining up well, I believe this makes for a potentially predictable outcome on Thursday night.
Let’s take a look at the odds for SMU vs. East Carolina, along with my pick for this NCAAF betting preview for Thursday, Oct. 12.
This year’s SMU team doesn't appear to have the high-scoring passing offense it's had in years past.
It makes sense after losing Tanner Mordecai to Wisconsin and Rashee Rice to the NFL, and Preston Stone has not proven that he can carry this offense in the same way.
The Mustangs rank 63rd in Offensive Success Rate and 52nd in Finishing Drives. The rushing game has been their strength, ranking 38th in Success Rate and 50th in PPA.
While the aerial attack has been relatively weak with a rank of 79th in Success Rate, it's been an explosive unit that comes in at eighth in the country in terms of creating big plays.
Defensively, this team has been stout. SMU ranks 21st in Success Rate overall, coming in at 15th against the run and 39th against the pass.
The Mustangs' main issue on defense has been allowing explosive passing plays, where they rank 104th. However, ECU sits 117th in passing explosiveness, so I don’t think that will hurt SMU this week.
East Carolina’s offense has been among the worst in FBS this season. The Pirates rank 120th in Success Rate and 130th in Finishing Drives while sitting 124th as a unit, per SP+.
Alex Flinn was tasked with replacing longtime quarterback Holton Ahlers this season, but it has not gone well thus far. Flinn has just one passing touchdown to five interceptions this year and is averaging -0.23 EPA per dropback.
Those numbers have led ECU to rank 120th in Passing Success Rate and 121st in Passing PPA. The lack of a competent passing game is a big problem for the Pirates considering they throw the ball at the 48th-highest rate in the country.
On the ground, ECU sits 92nd in Success Rate and 97th in PPA. That plays right into SMU’s defensive strength, so I wouldn't expect much production from the ground game either.
Similar to SMU, East Carolina’s defense has performed much better than its offense this season, ranking 26th in Success Rate and 11th in Finishing Drives. They're also the 10th-best defense in the nation at creating Havoc.
The best aspect of this Pirates unit is the rushing defense, which ranks 13th in Success Rate and 43rd in PPA. Meanwhile, ECU comes in at 58th in Success Rate and 89th in PPA against the pass.
This gap between PPA and Success Rate is explained by the Pirates' tendency to allow explosive plays. They sit 115th in passing explosiveness allowed and 129th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which puts them at 131st nationally in overall explosiveness allowed.
While SMU’s run game isn't overly explosive, we may see the passing game put up some big plays against this defense.
SMU vs East Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
I believe the strengths of these teams match up well with what their opponents will want to do.
On one side, ECU's run defense should be able to stifle an SMU ground game that's been leaned on heavily to this point. On the other, the Mustangs' main defensive strength comes against the run, which has been the most respectable part of East Carolina’s poor offense.
While I'm worried about SMU potentially generating some explosive passing plays against ECU's defense, I still believe in these two defenses more than either offensive unit.
For that reason, I like taking the under at 51.5 and would play it down to 49.5.
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