Ravens vs Jaguars Odds & Prediction: Sunday Night Football Spread Pick

The latest Ravens vs Jaguars odds have the Ravens installed as 4-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 42.5 total points at most sportsbooks. While Baltimore has the best record in the AFC, I'm targeting the underdog Jaguars for my NFL pick for Sunday Night Football.

The Jags limp into SNF following back-to-back losses to the Bengals and Browns. They will look to get back on track against a third straight AFC North opponent with their division lead dwindling after wins by the Texans and Colts. A victory would go a long way in cementing Jacksonville's postseason chances with games against the Bucs, Panthers and Titans to follow.

Meanwhile, the Ravens had everything break their way last weekend. Not only did they pull out a thrilling win in overtime over the Rams, they also saw the Dolphins suffer a stunning loss to the Titans and the Chiefs go down at home to the Bills. As a result, Baltimore has an inside track to the No. 1 seed despite a tough remaining schedule that includes the Jaguars, the 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers.

As a result of those losses by the other AFC top seeds last week, Baltimore can afford one loss and still beat Miami at home on New Year's Eve to secure that highly sought after bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even with two losses, they may still get it done.

Can the Jaguars right the ship at home in primetime or will the Ravens keep it rolling ahead of their highly anticipated Christmas showdown against the 49ers? Let's take a closer look at Baltimore-Jacksonville in my Sunday Night Football betting preview before getting into my Ravens vs Jaguars prediction.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and Jaguars match up statistically:

Ravens vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	5	8
Pass DVOA	9	10
Rush DVOA	1	2

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Overall DVOA	16	2
Pass DVOA	12	2
Rush DVOA	24	9

Let's start with the injury report, which is significant to the handicap of this game.

The Ravens are in much better shape after Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton trended up later in the week — both key defensive pieces look like they will suit up. Other than that, everybody else on the active roster is pretty healthy.

Conversely, the Jaguars have a few more question marks. Andre Cisco (groin) and Tyson Campbell (quad) were ruled out, which won't help a Jacksonville secondary that has looked porous of late.

On the other side of the ball, left tackle Walker Little (hamstring) and left guard Ezra Cleveland (knee) got in a few practices during the week. That's a good sign for an offensive line that simply couldn't protect a less-than-100% Trevor Lawrence last weekend in Cleveland with Little out and Cleveland leaving with an injury. Speaking of Lawrence, he has no injury designation and looked much better than I thought he would against the Browns — I would assume he's close to 100%.

The other factor to consider with this game is the weather. Storms will hit Florida throughout the weekend with heavy rain and winds in the forecast. Now, the weather could die down a bit by the time kickoff rolls around, but it certainly won't be calm.

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The weather is so important because the Jacksonville pass defense is the weakest unit of any in this game, especially without a pair of starters in Cisco and Campbell.

Therefore, although maybe a surprise to some, I believe windy conditions would favor the Jaguars, who have a better run defense statistically. On the season, Jacksonville ranks second in Rush Success Rate allowed while Baltimore has fallen to 19th in that department. From a DVOA perspective, which adjusts for opponent, the Jaguars rank second and the Ravens ninth.

The Ravens have one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL (No. 1 in DVOA) while the Jaguars have struggled in that department (24th). However, the Jags aren't as bad as some of the advanced metrics may indicate due to a number of key injuries that have negatively impacted their ground game.

Contrary to popular belief, a lower scoring game where downfield passing becomes more difficult due to inclement weather would be a welcome relief for Doug Pederson's squad.

Baltimore undoubtedly has one of the better defenses in the league. However, I do believe they come into this week a bit overrated in the market due to favorable circumstances throughout the season. Just take a look at the quarterbacks they have defeated this season and the timing of those victories:

• Joe Burrow early in the season when he was compromised with a calf injury.
• Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his first pro start.
• C.J. Stroud in his first pro start (and on the road) with a number of backup offensive linemen.
• Ryan Tannehill and then Malik Willis.
• Outdoor pumpkin Jared Goff.
• Joshua Dobbs.
• Geno Smith.
• Jake Browning in his first-ever NFL action after Burrow's wrist injury.
• Justin Herbert without Mike Williams.
• Matt Stafford, who had a massive game despite the loss.

That's as favorable as it gets and basic adjustments for strength of schedule don't account for most of the beneficial breaks Baltimore got due to timing of games or opponent injuries. Baltimore's defense is good, but it's not invincible.

I like the Jaguars at anything over a field goal in a great buy-low spot after two straight losses that had a lot to do with injuries.

I'm optimistic that Trevor Lawrence and his offensive line will be healthier this week, while the possibility of Jamal Agnew returning would provide a boost on offense and special teams. The Jags' secondary injuries hurt, but it was already a bad unit. Plus, the weather could provide some assistance here.

Just a few weeks ago, the Ravens closed as a field-goal underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers. They ended up covering on a late broken-play touchdown, but I have the Jaguars power rated better than the Chargers (with Justin Herbert). Jacksonville also has a higher home-field advantage rating.

Simply put: I don't think this line should be above a field goal. I think this one goes right down to the wire, similar to their meeting in Duval County last year that the Jaguars pulled out in thrilling fashion (28-27).

For what it's worth, Lamar Jackson has been a cash cow as a favorite of less than a field goal or an underdog at 15-1 ATS (93.8%), covering by an average margin of over 10 points per game — a relevant trend for next week in San Francisco. However, as a favorite of more than a field goal, he's gone just 20-30 ATS (40%).