NFL Best Bets, Picks & Props for Packers vs Giants, Titans vs Dolphins
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NFL Best Bets, Picks & Props for Packers vs Giants, Titans vs Dolphins
NFL Week 14 concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader, and we have NFL best bets, picks and props for Packers vs Giants and Titans vs Dolphins.
Action’s staff of NFL betting analysts have spread picks for each game of the MNF doubleheader, plus two player props for Tua Tagovailoa and Derrick Henry. Check out our four NFL best bets for Monday Night Football below.
Click on any MNF pick below to skip to it.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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| 8:15 p.m. | ||
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Packers vs. Giants
I'm going to continue riding the hot hand in Jordan Love and the Packers, and I have no issues backing them as rightful favorites now.
The Packers are playing with confidence by protecting Love in the pocket. Green Bay as a team is winning on pass blocks at a 69% rate, according to ESPN data, which is the second-highest rate in the league. This is especially important given how aggressively the Giants defense is sending blitzers. New York sends an extra defender on over 40% of opponent dropbacks.
Love has been solid against the blitz during his hot streak, but when he is kept clean Love has completed 73% of his passes. This is a bad matchup for the Giants defense given the few amount of pressures the Packers have allowed. I expect the Packers to be able to hit chunk plays, and New York does not have the firepower to keep pace.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been excellent late in the season and in primetime spots. LaFleur is 16-0 straight-up in December games, covering the spread at a 62.5% rate. Overall in primetime games, LaFleur has covered at a 60.6% rate.
Pick: Packers -5.5 (Play to -6.5)
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Dolphins vs. Titans
The Titans defense is the NFL's best against the run, according to DVOA, which should be significant in a game in which Tennessee must make Miami one-dimensional to have a chance at pulling the upset. The Dolphins are 23rd in the league when it comes to the rate at which their rushes get stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Titans will have their chance in this game to, at minimum, put Tua Tagovailoa in difficult third-down situations.
As for the Titans offense, it should be able to establish the run early in the game, which will pay dividends in shortening the contest. Running the ball well does not translate to wins in the NFL, but in a matchup like this where you clearly have the inferior quarterback, it's important to limit the number of possessions.
Miami is 20th in rush defense DVOA and now will have to play without edge defender Jaelan Phillips due to injury. Phillips is known as a great pass rusher, but he actually has graded out higher this season as a rush defender (the 15th-best run-defending defensive end), according to Pro Football Focus.
Mike Vrabel has also thrived as an underdog in his career, covering at a 60% rate when his team is catching more than three points. This line is a few points inflated, and I expect the Titans to play a competitive game similar to when they took the Chiefs to overtime in a primetime spot last season as a double-digit underdog on the road.
Pick: Titans +14 (Play to +13.5)
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Dolphins vs. Titans
By Matt Trebby
The Dolphins have won six games by at least two touchdowns this season. Well, they’re favored by 14 points against the Titans tonight.
In all six of those games, Tua Tagovailoa has attempted two or fewer rushing attempts. In fact, he’s gone over this total only three times this season.
It makes sense. Given the head injuries that Tagovailoa has dealt with in his young NFL career, he doesn’t need to be taking off and running more than necessary. He’s still showing off his mobility in the pocket when necessary, so he hasn’t become some statue.
Sean Koerner projects Tagovailoa for 1.5 rush attempts, which makes sense. He hasn’t attempted more than 2.5 rush attempts in any of the Dolphins’ last four games, and he’s only done so once in their last 10 games.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Under 2.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
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Dolphins vs. Titans
By Ricky Henne
Derrick Henry better rattle off some monster runs early, as there’s a decent chance we see him standing on the sideline come the second half.
The Titans aren't built to play from behind, and unfortunately for them, they’ll have to keep pace with Miami’s high-flying offense. Tyjae Spears tends to see more snaps in a negative game script, so I expect Henry to have limited touches against the Dolphins.
Miami is a 13.5-point favorite heading into Monday Night Football, and Henry’s numbers are pedestrian at best in games they’ve lost by double-digits. He had 10 carries for 38 yards in a 21-point loss to the Jaguars, 11 for 24 in a 14-point loss to the Buccaneers and 11 for 20 in a 24-point loss to the Browns.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins give up only 96.6 rushing yards per game, which is the eighth-fewest in the league. That hardly comes as a surprise considering they average 32.0 points per game, forcing the opposition to abandon the run and air it out trying to keep up.
It’s quite simple: Henry crushes it in games that are close and he struggles in games that get away from Tennessee. Virtually everyone expects the Dolphins to handle the Titans with ease, as they’re the biggest favorites of the week.
I’m a fan of this bet at 55.5 yards, and would also take it at the 54.5 yards half the books are offering.
Pick: Derrick Henry Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (+102)
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