NFL Best Bets Week 11: Expert Picks, Bets for Sunday Afternoon
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NFL Best Bets
Our team of bettors has its NFL Best Bets for the Sunday afternoon slates of games in Week 11. We have you covered with sides and totals here. For player props, visit here.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs. Packers
Jordan Love made some really impressive throws on Sunday in the loss to the Steelers. The play-to-play consistency needs work and he’s too nonchalant in the pocket at times, but the Packers offense showed real signs of vertical life and explosiveness in their close loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Now at home against a sieve-like Chargers defense, Green Bay should be able to have success once again.
The Packers' primary weakness defensively is the run game, which puts them in an unfavorable matchup against the Chargers this week. According to rbsdm.com, the Chargers pass more than expected in most offensive down-and-distance scenarios, as shown by the chart below.
The Chargers are now down to 31st in rushing success rate offensively as well. They’ve broken some big plays to help the EPA numbers, but it’s going to be on Justin Herbert to make this offense happen.
Given the defensive limitations, are the Chargers really 4.5 points better on a neutral field than the Packers? I don’t think so. The Chargers defense is 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per drive and only opponent mistakes (fifth in turnovers per drive) are keeping this unit afloat.
I’d bet the Packers at +3 or better at home and would also look to bet their team total over. They’ve had a terrible first-half offense all year, but Matt LaFleur is too good of a coach to not solve his team's script woes.
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Chargers vs. Packers
The Chargers are a team we should consistently target when playing totals from this point foward. Their defense is 29th in the league in yards per play allowed and they've given up the most passing plays of 30 or more yards on the season. Teams are averaging 8.1 yards per pass against them, which is also the most in the league. The Chargers defense has a 31% pressure rate on the season, but that number has dropped to only 17% since Week 7.
Offensively, the Chargers have scored 27 or more points in three straight games. It seems Kellen Moore has found a better rhythm as a play-caller. Justin Herbert should remain comfortable against a defense that ranks 23rd in adjusted sack rate and 24th in pass rush win rate.
We are getting a discount on the total in this game because the Chargers have actually seen the majority of their games go under this year. The Packers offense is coming off a healthy performance, putting up 399 total yards on 6.1 yards per play in a much tougher environment in Pittsburgh. Now Green Bay will return home, and we actually have good conditions at Lambeau with the temperature in the 40s and very little wind.
I'd bet this up to 44.
Chargers vs. Packers
The Chargers need a win badly and should get it against a Packers squad with far less talent, but it's hard to trust this defense or coaching staff. Let's isolate and play just the Chargers offense, which has been far more reliable and closed last week with a touchdown on its final five drives in a loss.
Allen should have a huge game — I was looking at his props here too — and Justin Herbert will get anything he wants here. The Chargers should also be able to run the ball easily against this terrible rushing defense, fitting the script Kellen Moore prefers. That, plus the Packers' slow pace of play has suppressed the total and left value on the Chargers TT. LA has gone over this in seven of nine games, all but against terrific Cowboys and Chiefs defenses, so 24 isn't a big ask.
I really like the Chargers here. They are just a much better team, but I simply don't trust them — not the defense nor the coaching, not on the road, not in a house nor in a blouse. I do trust the offense against this terribly coached Packers defense, though.
Will the Chargers win? Will they cover? Will some ridiculously stupid thing derail them late like it somehow does every week? I don't care. The Chargers should move the ball and score, so just get your 24 and cash our ticket.
Pick: Chargers Team Total Over 23.5 (-110)
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Steelers vs. Browns
I'm fading the public in this spot, as more than three-fourths of the bets have come in on the Steelers. I understand that Pittsburgh is 6-3 on the season. I understand that the Browns are now starting their third-string quarterback. I understand that Mike Tomlin has some type of voodoo power that helps him win games in the craziest fashion.
Despite all of that, give me the Browns to win at home.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson really struggled in his first start, but it was on short notice and against a healthy Ravens defense. He's had time to prepare for this game and the Steelers are going to be without key defensive starters in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kwon Alexander and Keanu Neal. On top of that, I'm not sure the Browns will need DTR to do much in this spot.
The Steelers are average at best against the run, while Cleveland has a very good run-blocking unit. They also have an elite defense that gets to tee off against Kenny Pickett.
Pick: Browns -2 (-110)
Titans vs. Jaguars
It’s time for the weekly Will Levis success-rate update. Of 41 quarterbacks with at least 60 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has the fourth-lowest success rate. He’s ahead of only Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson and P.J. Walker.
The Titans’ offensive line issues have created problems for Levis. When the defensive secondary hasn’t completely blown the coverage, he’s taken a ton of sacks and has created next to nothing offensively. And Levis also ranks in the bottom three in completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats.
The Jaguars' secondary is top-five in coverage grades overall, per PFF. It’s hard to draw up many paths to success for the Titans offense in this game, and I think we’re going to see more struggles for Levis on the road on Sunday.
It's also difficult to run on the Jaguars, whose entire defensive scheme is built around taking away opponents' running backs.
This is an excellent matchup for Trevor Lawrence to carve up a very mediocre Titans secondary. However, the quarterback's efficiency and success rate numbers should be a lot better than they are.
The Jaguars are 15th in offensive yards per drive. Lawrence is 19th in adjusted EPA per play and just 10th in success rate. He hasn’t taken a step into the top 10 as a passer. For that reason, I think points will be harder to come by than the market is suggesting with this total.
Giants vs. Commanders
This line is just goofy. These teams played under a month ago without Daniel Jones then, too, and the Giants won, 14-7.
The preseason line for this game was Giants -1.5. You're telling me DeVito is that bad?! This line should not have moved 11 points from preseason, especially since Washington is worse than expected, too. The Giants had been playing better defense before running into Dallas last week, and Wink Martindale's aggressive unit will get to Sam Howell.
When teams look as impossibly bad as the Giants currently do, they always eventually regress back to the mean. New York's average margin of victory this season is -14.8. From Week 5 forward, underdogs with at least a -14 margin of victory are 101-52-1 ATS (66%), and that jumps to 60-22-1 ATS (73%) on the road. We've seen six matchups like that in the last calendar year, and the road underdog won three of them outright.
The Giants are bad. They're just not this bad.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers
The bye week was an excellent reset spot for the 49ers. Not only did Brock Purdy get healthy from his concussion, but San Francisco got both Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams back from injury.
The result was an offensive explosion against a solid Jaguars defense. The Niners posted 7.3 yards per play, 437 total yards and 34 points. There was help from all of the turnovers forced by the defense, but every 49ers scoring drive was at least 40 yards. The Jags had a goal-line stop late in the fourth quarter to prevent the 49ers from getting to 40.
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Before the injuries to Purdy, Williams and Samuel, it’s important to note just how dominant the 49ers offense was. They scored 30+ points in each of their first five games of the season. The Buccaneers cannot generate pressure on quarterbacks without bringing extra pressure.
Blitzing Purdy, a plus processor, with the weapons that the 49ers feature, is a recipe to get smoked. The Buccaneers defense also has some regression coming from a luck perspective.
The Bucs have the league's No. 1 red-zone defense by touchdown percentage, they rank inside the top five in fumble-recovery luck, and they should get handled on Sunday.
Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 26.5 (-135)
Jets vs. Bills
We all watched that Monday night opener when the Jets won in overtime, and it was obvious Buffalo was the much better team and should've won, but this is not that Bills team anymore. The old Bills responded with 41 PPG in the three games following the Jets loss, but have plummeted to 20.5 PPG in six games since.
Now that faltering offense has to face a Jets defense that's become everything it was supposed to be. New York has found answers against almost every top quarterback, and the metrics say this defense is as good as any in football over the past six weeks — especially against the pass.
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Buffalo's defense isn't good, not by any measure. The injuries have piled up, and Buffalo ranks 31st in Defensive DVOA the past six weeks. The Bills are 31st against the pass in that stretch and bottom three against WR1s on the season, so this could be a Garrett Wilson game. Buffalo has also been poor on first downs, which sets the Jets up to find some success early and keep things a bit easy for Zach Wilson.
The truth hurts: the Jets' defense is good enough to match Buffalo's offense, and the Bills' defense is bad enough to match New York's offense. These teams are much closer to even than -7, so grab the key number.
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-120)
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