NFL Odds & Picks

Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon — who has a 400-306-19 (56.7%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app — breaks down eight of his picks for Week 15. Find out which spreads, totals and props he's keying in on.

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Patriots at Dolphins

Bill Belichick hasn’t suffered many double-digit losses in his career, but he tends to rebound the next game.

A matchup against Tua Tagovailoa sets up well for Belichick to get his team back on track. He's 25-5 straight up all-time against rookie quarterbacks, and his defenses have held them to a 25-to-42 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since Russell Wilson beat the Patriots 24-23 in his rookie season in 2012, rookie passers are 1-16 straight-up against Belichick with nine touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

Despite compiling a 4-2 record as a starter, Tagovailoa is 20th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (5.67). With Tagovailoa likely to struggle, the Patriots should be able to keep it close enough to run on Miami’s 23rd-ranked unit in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Cam Newton ran for 75 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins in Week 1 as the Patriots steamrolled Miami for 217 yards on the ground (and did so without Damien Harris, who will miss this game due to injury).

I would bet the Patriots down to a pick’em, but I also like this under.

The first matchup between these teams produced 32 total points in a 21-11 Patriots win against Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Tagovailoa isn’t likely to fare much better.

Belichick and Brian Flores are two defensive-minded coaches who know each other well, so this game should stay tight. Two of the three meetings between them so far have gone under, and these teams are a combined 17-9 toward the under on the season. I like the under down to 40.5 (shop real-time lines).

49ers at Cowboys

The 23-15 final score of San Francisco’s loss to Washington last week was misleading, as the 49ers out-gained the Football Team (344 to 193 yards) but surrendered two defensive touchdowns.

After a string of tough matchups, the Cowboys present a get-right spot for the 49ers. Dallas has allowed an NFL-high 162.7 rushing yards per game, and Kyle Shanahan’s zone schemes should give Mike Nolan nightmares.

I wouldn't bet the Niners further than -3, though.

Buccaneers at Falcons

The Falcons defense has been much improved with interim head coach Raheem Morris, allowing 20.2 points per game in eight games under Morris compared to 32.2 in five games under Dan Quinn.

However, the Falcons will be without Julio Jones and are struggling on offense. Atlanta has been held to 17 or fewer points in three of four games since the bye and now face a Tampa defense that ranks fifth in DVOA and seventh in points per game allowed on the road (21.6).

In the Matt Ryan era, the under has been profitable in games which the Falcons are underdogs at home (per our Bet Labs database), though I wouldn't bet it past 49.5 points.

Bears at Vikings

Both teams are banged up on defense, but this number is high for a late-season divisional game between two teams that combined for 32 points in Week 10, even with Cordarrelle Patterson returning a kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown.

The Bears always do a good job containing Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 16.0 carries for 45.5 yards in four career meetings against Chicago. None of those games saw these two teams combine for more than 45 points, and the average combined score was 33.3.

The Vikings are also having issues at kicker, as Dan Bailey has missed six field goals and four extra points this season, with four of those misses coming last week alone. I like the under down to 46.

I also like the under on 97.5 rushing yards for Cook in this game.

The Bears have always defended him well, never allowing him to surpass 3.55 yards per carry in four career meetings. When these teams faced off in Week 10, Cook fell just short of this number, finishing with 96 yards despite getting 30 carries. As a result, I expect the Vikings to adjust this time around, using Cook more in the passing game and targeting wide receivers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson against a banged up Bears secondary.

I like his under down to 92.5 yards.

Jets at Rams

Thankfully, I held off on betting against Anthony Lynn on Thursday night after I lost my bet fading him against Atlanta the week prior, but I'm firing against Adam Gase for the second week in a row.

The Jets — likely demoralized after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in their best chance for a win this season against the Raiders two weeks ago — got rolled 40-3 by the Seahawks last week, and I’m expecting another shellacking as they travel out west to face a Rams team that beat the Seahawks 23-16 in Week 10 and is coming off a 24-3 domination of the Patriots.

Gase’s teams have tended to wilt when outmatched, covering less than one-quarter of the time as underdogs on the road with a spread of more than five points.

Gase is 2-8 against the spread (ATS) as a road dog with a double-digit spread and 1-3 when the number is +17 or more.

The Jets’ passing game relies almost completely on wide receivers Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman, as starting tight end Chris Herndon has been nearly invisible with 142 yards in 13 games and starting running back Frank Gore has only 14 catches for 77 yards on the year. This is not ideal against a Jalen Ramsey-led secondary that's permitted the second-fewest yards to opposing wide receivers (1,731).

I like the Rams up to -17.

Eagles at Cardinals

In Jalen Hurts’ first start, the Eagles gained 413 total yards — their second-highest total of the season — against the Saints, who rank No. 2 in defensive DVOA. Hurt's dual-threat ability is ideal for this offense because he can keep the Eagles ahead of the chains via scramble when the receivers don’t get separation. He also opens things up for Miles Sanders in the run game by forcing the defense to devote more attention to him.

The absences of cornerback Darius Slay (concussion) and safety Rodney McCloud (ACL) are concerning, but I still make this line under six points after accounting for their absences.

The Cardinals have only won four games by seven or more points this season, and those have come against Dwayne Haskins, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton in his first start for the Cowboys, and an injured Daniel Jones.

The public tends to be especially overconfident in favorites in games projected to be within one possession at this time of year, especially when the favorite has a respectable win-loss record. According to our Bet Labs data, underdogs of 3-8 points in Weeks 15-16 have covered two-thirds of the time when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .400 or better:

I like the Eagles down to +6.

Browns at Giants

I love the over on Chubb's rushing prop, which is currently set at 73.5 at BetMGM.

Chubb has rushed for 80-plus yards in 7-of-9 games with a median of 108, so the market looks to be overweighting the absence of guard Wyatt Teller, especially with the Giants' vulnerability to explosive runs.

Chubb is averaging 18.6 carries per game in five games since returning from injury and should get plenty of volume in a game the Giants are unlikely to run away with. I would bet this over up to 84.5 yards.