NFL Week 9 Picks: Data-Driven Predictions, Props
Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill.
NFL Week 9 Picks: Data-Driven Predictions, Props
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 9:30 a.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 4:25 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
By Billy Ward
We swept the board on the "no" side of this prop last week, but we have a rare opportunity to take the other side in Week 9.
After a few years of drastically underpricing the “no” side of this line, books have corrected for the lower scoring in recent years with broadly more accurate pricing.
However, in this case, they’ve overcorrected. The morning game from Germany has a tight, 1.5-point spread – but the total is at or above 50 depending on the book.
Historically, games with a total of 50 or more have true odds of almost -190 for the "yes" side of the prop. The bulk of those games also had reasonably close spreads, as it’s rare to see massive totals in games predicted to be one sided.
This is the first time I can ever remember being on the other side of this prop, and it’s uncomfortable laying the juice. Still, it’s a good value this week given the explosive offenses on hand for this one.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — Yes (-160)
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Commanders vs. Patriots
By Billy Ward
Fortunately, DraftKings is excluding the Chiefs-Dolphins game in this market. If that game were to be considered, it would be hard to see an angle on any other contest for the highest scoring game.
However, with that one out of the way, only Eagles-Cowboys has a total over 45 on the main Sunday slate. That game certainly could blow up for a big score, given the offenses at hand.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it fell well short, though. The Cowboys are stubbornly committed to the run game, while taking on the league’s top rushing defense by DVOA. They’re also a team that wants to control the clock, with the third-slowest overall pace in the NFL.
The Eagles are the sixth-slowest team overall this year and they're taking on an elite defense allowing just 17.1 points per game.
The Commanders-Patriots game has a total of just 40.5, but with clear path to upside. New England has played at the second-fastest pace this season, and the Commanders rank second in pass rate over expectation.
This game reminds me of Colts-Browns from a few weeks ago, where sloppy quarterback play and pass-heavy offenses could lead to more scoring, with some defensive touchdowns or short fields thrown into the mix.
Additionally, Mac Jones and the Patriots should have a clean pocket, with Washington trading away its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Washington has been involved in four games that have topped 60 points this season – and that was with a more talented defense.
The likeliest outcome is both games mentioned land somewhat close to their totals – but that’s why we’re getting +1200 odds.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game (+1200)
Cardinals vs. Browns
By Nick Giffen
With first-string TE Zach Ertz on IR, Trey McBride garnered 82% of the snaps in Arizona's Week 8 loss to the Ravens. McBride was targeted 14 times in that game by Josh Dobbs, who got shipped to Minnesota in a deadline-day deal.
Enter rookie Clayton Tune, who has thrown all of one pass in the NFL so far. In Tune's two full season as the Houston Cougars starter, tight ends had just a 12.5% reception share. Contrast that with Dobbs, who targed TEs on 30.8% of his pass attempts in 10 career starts for the Titans and Cardinals.
In the preseason, Tune completed just 57.6% of his pass attempts against defenses much softer than he'll be facing this weekend.
The Browns enter as the league's No. 2 pass defense by DVOA, and are particularly tough on tight ends. They rank second in the NFL in defensive DVOA on passes to the position, while also allowing the fewest targets per game as well. That combination of low volume and efficiency means tight ends have averaged just 18.6 receiving yards per game against them.
Add in Tune's likely tendency to target tight ends less, and we've got a great case for McBride's under. I have him projected for a median of 34 yards, giving him a 61% chance to stay under 42.5. If you have Bet365 available to you, grab the under at 45.5 yards there.
Pick: Trey McBride Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Giants vs. Raiders
By Billy Ward
We also have a near-ideal situation for "no" side of this prop as two of the NFL’s worst offenses in the Giants and Raiders square off.
Even with Daniel Jones returning for the Giants, this game has a total of just 37.5. All games with totals south of 40 have hit the “no” side of this line more often than not, with fair odds of -108 even before examining the spread.
As we know, the spread is the bigger factor anyway, and this game checks in with the Raiders as -2 favorites. That would give us fair odds right around this line absent any other information.
While it’s a small sample size, combining the factors has worked out to true odds of around -130 in my data set, making this a clear value. We might not see either team score three times total here, much less in a row.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+125)
Bills vs. Bengals
By Nick Giffen
This game has the best overtime potential of any game this year so far. All the ingredients are here for a potential overtime shootout.
First, these are two potent offenses that have the ability to come back from multiple scores down, and make up oddball score differences like eight, 11 or 15 points. That’s reflected in the game total of 50.5 points.
However, there may not be as much of a need to come back from an oddball score thanks to these teams’ tendencies.
The Bengals have yet to attempt a two-point conversion this year as kicker Evan McPherson is a perfect 14-for-14 on his extra-point attempts. McPherson's three-year extra-point percentage hovering right around league average being the biggest drawback to an overtime argument just shows how well everything is lining up in this one.
On the Bills side, they have one of the best extra-point kickers in the NFL in Tyler Bass, who should get plenty of usage because the Bills have gone for two only twice on 27 touchdowns. Both of those time were when the Bills were trying to turn a five-point game into a three-point game, making overtime more likely.
The Bills are also the unlucky team in our NFL Luck Rankings, and as the road team with the second-largest Luck Gap of the week, they fit a trend that covers the spread at a 67% clip over a 102-game sample size over the last six years. That means this game could play even closer than the point spread suggests.
Since I like to keep at least a 10% expected ROI, this is playable down to +1275.
Pick: Will There Be Overtime — Yes (+1360)
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