The "windy under" narrative is one that's no longer novel in the college football betting world, but unless you've proactively searched for betting information as it relates to weather, it might still be eluding you — which is a problem.
Wind matters (a lot) in college football, and we've got the data to prove it.
One of our finest PRO Systems — all of which are included with a PRO subscription — relates solely to wind, and has produced a steady profit over the course of our entire database (back to 2005).
The theory is simple. A windy game is going to make it harder to throw — which not only limits big plays, but keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving — reducing overall scoring.
Since 2005, games with average wind speeds of at least 13 mph have hit the under at a 57% rate — at the closing number. And plenty of these past matches have seen some heavy line movement from the opener.
In fact, 212 of them (over 20%) have dropped by at least a field goal, and still turned a profit for under bettors.
Saturday's slate features a few games eclipsing the 13-mph mark, all of which are coming from the same part of the country — Big 12 nation, to be specific.
Below you'll find the three matchups that could be impacted by heavy winds, along with the over/under movement that's come as a result.
Odds and forecast as of Saturday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 14 to 15 mph
- O/U open to current: 59.5 to 60.5
Wind will be a factor in the noon ET kick in Norman, as forecasts are calling for a 14-to-15-mph "breeze" throughout the game.
Don't necessarily be fooled by the open-to-current movement, either. This total reached 61.5 before starting to make its way back down.
Texas @ Texas Tech
3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- Wind speeds: 12 to 13 mph
- O/U open to current: 69 to 70.5
In addition to the shots of flags blowing in the Lubbock wind, don't be surprised to see the big thermometer pulled out for this one. Temps are expected range from 92 to 97 degrees throughout the game …
Generally speaking, hot-weather games trend toward the over, but historically speaking, wind is king. Even in games featuring temperatures of 80 degrees or higher, the under is still 52-38-0 as long as the wind reaches that 13-mph mark.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- Wind speeds: 17 to 19 mph
- O/U open to current: 55 to 50.5
Time for Saturday's top dog on the wind-speed list.
Stillwater is looking at average speeds of 17.9 mph throughout the game, which brings us to an even more profitable threshold.
In our database, games with average speeds of 17 mph or more have hit the under at a 58.3% rate, and oddsmakers have certainly taken notice in this case.
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