Amon-Ra St. Brown Dynasty Fantasy Outlook, NFL Draft Profile & Prop Bets

Amon-Ra St. Brown Draft Profile

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Draft Props

While I rely on my own research, I also take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying an index of mock drafts. I find that these drafts — created by experts with established records of success — collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes for what we might see with any given player or pick.

In not one of the surveyed mocks has St. Brown gone in Round 1. In fact, since evaluation season kicked off in February his draft stock has steadily dropped from Round 2 into Round 3 (per Grinding the Mocks).

St. Brown is +15000 at DraftKings, BetMGM and PointsBet to be the No. 1 receiver selected in the class, but he's unbettable at any price.

Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

It's wrong of me to say, but I can't help myself: Memorable name, forgettable game.

On the field, St. Brown excels in no particular area, but he does everything well.

He's not a speedster. He's not a possession receiver. He's not a sudden separator. He's not a contested catch artist. He's not an after-the-catch bruiser. He's not a slot man or a flanker or a split end. He's not a deep threat or an intermediate maven or a screen machine.

St. Brown is simply an all-around NFL-ready complementary receiver with a full route tree and mature route-running ability.

He never had a blow-your-mind collegiate campaign — and for that reason the widespread comparison to USC forefather Robert Woods is overblown — Woods was one of the most productive players in the nation his sophomore season with 111-1,292-15 receiving, but like Woods, St. Brown has two important factors in his favor:

1. He contributed significantly right away at USC.
2. He is entering the NFL as an early declarant.

Combined with his expected draft capital, those factors put him in a strong cohort of receivers selected in Rounds 2-3 over the past decade.

Not all 11 receivers in the subset have had tremendous professional success, but most of them have been fantasy-relevant players for stretches, and several of them have had multiple fantasy WR1 seasons.

That's pretty much all you can hope for from receivers going after Round 1.

Like Woods, St. Brown is also a middling athlete. At the USC pro day, St. Brown did well with his jumps and three-cone drill (per RotoViz Workout Explorer) …

… but he underwhelmed with his straight-line speed, especially considering that his unofficial (but widely distributed) 40-yard time of 4.51 seconds was adjusted to an official time of 4.59 seconds.

Ouch.

Even if we assume that St. Brown's true 40 time is halfway between the two measurements and we adjust it to 4.55 seconds, that still gives him a freak score of just 44 with his height and weight (per RotoViz Freak Score Calculator).

Translation: St. Brown is a subpar athlete.

But it's worth exploring the idea of how much athleticism will even matter for St. Brown. Think about the previously mentioned preciously productive early declarants who have been drafted in Rounds 2-3: Almost all of the guys from that cohort to have NFL success were no better than average in their pre-draft workouts.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster (Combine): 6'1" | 215 pounds | 4.54-second 40
• Tyler Boyd (Combine): 6'2" | 197 pounds | 4.58-second 40
• Robert Woods (Combine): 6′ | 201 pounds | 4.51-second 40
• Keenan Allen (Pro Day): 6'2" | 206 pounds | 4.71-second 40 (injury)
• Alshon Jeffery (Pro Day): 6'3" | 213 pounds | 4.51-second 40
• Mohamed Sanu (Combine): 6'2" | 211 pounds | 4.67-second 40
• Randall Cobb (Combine): 5'10" | 191 pounds | 4.46-second 40

It's by no means a positive for St. Brown that he's on the sluggish side of the spectrum, but it's also probably not a massive negative. With his early freshman breakout and early college exit, St. Brown has some margin for error when it comes to his athleticism.

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It's worth looking at St. Brown's college career in detail.

Entering USC as a heralded recruit with 4-5 stars, St. Brown was expected to produce quickly, and he did. As a true freshman, St. Brown split his time between the perimeter and slot as he ranked No. 1 on the team with 60 catches, No. 2 with 750 yards receiving — trailing top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. by just eight yards — and No. 3 with three touchdown receptions.

As a sophomore, St. Brown shifted into the slot and played as the team's full-time middle-of-the-field option. But even though he still served as the No. 2 receiver behind Pittman, St. Brown nevertheless managed to break out with 77-1,042-6 receiving while chipping in with 7-60-1 rushing.

And then as a junior — in an abbreviated six-game season — St. Brown shifted from the slot to the perimeter, where he ran 69% of his routes, and he put up a respectable-but-unremarkable 41-478-7 receiving as the team's No. 1 option.

Thor Nystrom of NBC Sports Edge has noted that St. Brown underperformed as a junior with his shift to the perimeter. Indeed, in moving from the slot to the outside, St. Brown saw his year-over-year production dropped in several key metrics (per SIS, 2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook).

Yards per Target

• 2019 (Slot): 9.9
• 2020 (Perimeter): 8.2

Yards per Route

• 2019 (Slot): 2.0
• 2020 (Perimeter): 1.4

Unique Routes

• 2019 (Slot): 16
• 2020 (Perimeter): 11

But with his junior-year perimeter play, St. Brown at least demonstrated to NFL teams that he can line up all over the field, and his 2020 decline might be overstated. In a few metrics, his play actually seemed to improve.

Receiver Rating

• 2019 (Slot): 114.6
• 2020 (Perimeter): 120.5

Expected Points Added per Target

• 2019 (Slot): 0.40
• 2020 (Perimeter): 0.45

Positive Play Rate vs. Man Coverage

• 2019 (Slot): 55%
• 2020 (Perimeter): 75%

St. Brown never had an emphatically great season at USC, and it would have been nice if he had been a more productive runner and returner.

• Rushing: 9-69-1
• Punt Returning: 19-107-0
• Kick Returning: 2-43-0

But St. Brown was consistently steady in college and demonstrated the ability to win in a variety of ways all over the field as a receiver.

He likely won't have multiple 1,000-yard seasons in the NFL — at least early in his career — but he could certainly be a regular contributor in reality and fantasy for a half decade.

NFL Prospect Comp: Brian Hartline with less return production but an earlier college breakout

Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.