NFL Week 3's massive point spreads — Jets vs. Patriots and Dolphins vs. Cowboys — have been widely covered throughout the week. However, the big question for bettors revolves around where the value lies in these historically large numbers.
We know from our Bet Labs software that NFL favorites of at least 20 points are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) since 2003, but that sample is too small for drawing meaningful betting conclusions.
But with a live and efficient betting market, we can easily monitor line movement to determine where the value lies in these matchups.
In fact, Sports Insights' Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, have provided a significant clue regarding how sharps are betting these games, and, spoiler alert, late wiseguy action is all over the Jets vs. Patriots spread.
Jets vs. Patriots NFL Sharp Report
The Patriots opened as 22-point favorites over the Jets at PointsBet and bettors are overwhelmingly backing New England.
Seventy percent of bets and 72% of dollars wagered are laying the huge number, yet the line has dropped to a consensus of 21, and even 20.5 at many sportsbooks across the market.
That is the first time this number has touched 20.5 since oddsmakers opened Jets vs. Patriots odds early in the week.
SI's Bet Signals have triggered two Reverse Line Moves on the Jets, explaining why the line has moved against the Patriots despite their huge backing from casual bettors.
