USA breezed through the group stage while setting numerous records along the way, including most goals (18) and biggest goal differential (18). They won all three matches via shutout: 13-0 vs. Thailand, 3-0 vs. Chile and 2-0 vs. Sweden.
Favorites have dominated in this World Cup, winning 30 of 36 matches in the group stage, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll continue in the knockout phase.
#FIFAWWC Group Results (36 Matches)
Favorites: 30 wins
Underdogs: 3 wins
Draws: 3⚽Underdog wins were Italy (+400), Nigeria (+300), Cameroon (+275).
⚽Draws were Japan-Argentina (+1000), Scotland-Argentina (+425), Spain-China (+195).— Action Network Soccer (@ActionNetSoccer) June 20, 2019
Heading into the Round of 16, USA were listed as the clear +165 favorites to win the tournament, but they could face host nation France in the quarterfinal. First, they'll need to get past Spain on Monday.
USA vs. Spain Betting Odds
Note: -600 means a $600 bet would win $100
- Odds to Advance: USA -600, Spain +400
- USA regulation moneyline: -265
- Spain regulation moneyline: +800
- Draw: +355
- Spread: USA -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-120)
USA are once again listed as heavy favorites to win (-250) and advance (-600) past Spain. In the group stage they were -10,000 favorites vs. Thailand, -5000 favorites vs. Chile and -250 favorites against Sweden, and they finished with an expected goal differential of +12.65.
Spain's path was more difficult. They were listed as +375 moneyline underdogs in their 1-0 loss to Germany, slight -110 favorites in their scoreless draw with China and -750 to beat South Africa, which they did. This is the first time Spain have ever reached the knockout round.
Expectations are high for the USA, as they've never finished worse than third place in the Women's World Cup and are currently on an eight-match win streak dating back to the 2015 tournament. They've outscored opponents 29-2 in that span and can break Norway's record of 10 consecutive wins (1995 and 1999) if they reach the final this year.
The market lists USA at -265 to beat Spain in regulation, and those odds will surely rise before kickoff. We've consistently seen the majority of bets on USA throughout the tournament, and oddsmakers increased the lines in all three group matches. Expect the same thing to happen here.
Casual bettors are loving the goal line, too, with more than 80% of bets on USA -1.5. The fact that the juice is plus-money odds (+120) is another enticing piece of this wager for public bettors.
Despite the onslaught of bets on USA to win and cover, we have seen some early sharp money on the under (2.5), causing the juice to increase to -120. Sportsbooks know all the public action will come in on the over, so adjusting toward the under shows it was smart, respected money.
USA vs. Spain Prop Bets
- The top-six players for first goalscorer of the match are all from USA: Alex Morgan (+275), Carli Lloyd (+400), Christen Press (+450), Megan Rapinoe (+500), Tobin Heath (+500) and Mallory Pugh (+500).
- The most likely goalscorer for Spain is Jennifer Hermoso. She's listed +850 to score the first goal of the game and +350 to score anytime during the match.
- USA to be winning at half-time and full-time is listed at even money (+100 odds). You can also get +265 odds that USA win both halves individually.
- Both teams to score is listed at +125 odds. Either team to earn a shutout is listed at -145.
- Based on the odds, the most likely outcomes are USA 1-0, USA 2-0, USA 2-1 and USA 3-0.
