UFC 304 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze: How to Flip Favorite to Plus Money (Saturday, July 27)

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze Odds

Check out the latest Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze odds for UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, with our expert pick and prediction.

Allen vs. Chikadze is one of the more intriguing matchups of this weekend's pay-per-view.

During their careers, both men have garnered enough hype at one point to be considered future title contenders. But as is the case with a lot of very good prospects, running into the upper echelon of their respective divisions tends to derail the hype train.

Let's dig into Saturday's UFC 304 main-card opener.

Tale of the Tape

Two factors that cannot be overlooked when analyzing this fight are age and activity. Allen is five years younger than Chikadze, and he has been more active as well.

Chikadze has stepped into the octagon only twice over the past three years with this being just his third bout since August 2021. It’s very difficult to project Chikadze suddenly making improvements, which is the simple reason why Allen remains the rightful favorite despite losing by decision in his past two contests.

Neither man has ever been knocked out, but given the damage Chikadze has sustained in fights such as his five-round war with Calvin Kattar, the younger Allen seems to be the more indestructible fighter heading into what projects to be primarily a kickboxing match.

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The key to Allen winning this style of fight will be his ability to close to distance and dirty up the striking exchanges. Allen cannot play into Chikadze's strengths by fighting at distance. Chikadze is quite comfortable in such a setting, and obviously, it's where at his most dangerous.

One overlooked aspect of this bout that could come into play is Allen's grappling. He didn't land a takedown in any of his four previous fights, but if he is going to pressure Chikadze to point of making him fight out of his element, it would bode well for him to change levels occasionally and test the 69% takedown defense of Chikadze. That number may not seem all that bad for a fighter with an extensive kickboxing background who transitioned to MMA, but Chikadze’s strength of schedule facing any type of wrestler is undoubtedly lacking.

Allen had shown a willingness in the past to press his grappling edge, attempting five total takedowns against Sodiq Yusuff in 2021, of which he landed two en route to a victory. Prior to that, Allen had landed takedowns in four of his first six UFC fights. A similar game plan of pressure combined with the threat of the takedown seems to be the path of least resistance for Allen if he is to come away victorious.

Allen vs. Chikadze Pick

The moneyline price is fair, but there are two angles in which I am looking to play this fight. As mentioned, Allen has never been finished, he’s also never even been knocked down. Chikadze has a near-zero path in the grappling realm. Thus I am really only seeing a possible finish coming from the Allen side.

The Allen "finish only" moneyline sits at -180, and it is well worth a play considering you are protected against a Chikadze decision win. (If the fight goes to decision, your finish-only bet is refunded.)

Secondly, a small same-game parlay with Allen on DraftKings can flip the odds to an underdog price at +110 by simply adding in one takedown.

Once Allen gets settled in and measures his opponent's timing, I believe this fight is ripe for him to use his grappling edge once again.

The Picks: Arnold Allen (-180 at DraftKings) | SGP – Allen moneyline 3-way & Allen 1+ takedown (+110 at DraftKings)

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