Propbetguy

Suarez has been on fire - over in 5/5 since fully stretched out (L3 starts: 9, 7 and 8 IP). He’s getting a ton of weak ground balls (96th percentile GB%, 92nd in hard hit rate). SFG has struggled vs lefties (94 wRC+ and .663 OPS both rank 19th) and GB pitchers (.541 OPS). Schmidt has turned a corner this season - he’s over this line in 5/6 despite facing a gauntlet of tough to K teams (HOU, CLE, TOR, BAL). His cutter and slider have shot up in terms of stuff+, the former especially becoming a weapon now vs lefties (35% K% so far vs lefties this season, 18% last season). He’ll get 5 lefties today vs a tigers lineup that has a K% vs righties consistently above average (24%).

Civale coming off a tough start vs NYY, but he’s looked good overall: 3.90 ERA/3.09 xERA. Generating more strikeouts thanks to a new sweeper he’s started throwing to righties this season. He gets 6 righties today (5 of them K prone). 5+ Ks in 4/5 starts. I see this as a game where Quantrill is going to struggle to get through 5 IP, let alone putting the Rockies in position to win. The altitude should wreak havoc with this one, and I don’t trust a Rockies bullpen to hold the lead even if Cal somehow gets through 5 with the Rockies winning.