Check out the Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic predictions, picks and odds for UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Barring any last-minute setbacks, Jon Jones is finally getting his wish with a fight against the UFC's most decorated heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. This fight was booked for the November MSG event last year, but a torn pectoral forced Jones out of the bout.
This would've been a true super fight a few years ago when the 42-year-old Miocic was closer to his prime and Jones was first testing the heavyweight waters. Now, it's been more than three years since Miocic fought and more than four since his last win.
On the Jones side, he's packed on enough size that he'll probably be the bigger man come weigh-ins. Both of those factors take some shine off the fight, but let's find some betting value anyway.
Here's my Jones vs Miocic pick and prediction.
Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic Odds for UFC 309
| Jones Odds | -650 |
| Miocic Odds | +460 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100o / -130u) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 12:30 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 309 odds as of Friday and via Caesars Sportsbook. | |
Jones vs Miocic Prediction & Tale of the Tape
| Jones | Miocic | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-1 | 20-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:53 | 11:11 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 248 | 240 |
| Reach (inches) | 84" | 80" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/19/1987 | 8/19/1982 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.29 | 4.82 |
| SS Accuracy | 57% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.22 | 3.82 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.93 | 1.86 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 34% |
| TD Def | 95% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0 |
While the discussion surrounding the "greatest" MMA fighter is impossible to settle, Jones is on the short list. Inside the octagon, he's a near-perfect fighter. He's arguably the first truly elite pure athlete in MMA, discounting the scores of former football players who pivoted to combat sports later in their careers.
As a light heavyweight, Jones typically had huge physical edges over his opponents. Whether that would play up at heavyweight was an interesting question coming into his debut in March of 2023, but he answered it with a resounding yes against Ciryl Gane.
He's dangerous at range thanks to his massive reach, excellent jab, and unorthodox kicking game. He's also known for his frequent eye pokes. Interestingly, the New York athletic commission announced a return to the old UFC gloves for this event, which reportedly makes it easier for fighters to open their hands.
Typically the strategy against a fighter like that would be to get inside and work from the clinch. That's a dangerous proposition against Jones, who uses inside elbows as well as any MMA fighter.
More notably, his best weapon might be the humble foot sweep. Those are somewhat hard to pull off when grappling without a Gi, but that's never been a problem for Jones. The majority of the takedowns in his career have been from the clinch or via trips rather than shooting from the outside.
That style of takedown is both safer — no risk of eating knees or uppercuts when changing levels — and less energy intensive than freestyle wrestling style leg attacks. That leaves grounding Jones as perhaps the best path to beating him, but he's been taken down just twice in 22 UFC bouts, while spending less than a minute total on the bottom.
All of that makes the path for Miocic to win this fight extremely thin. The last unanswered question about Jones at heavyweight is how his chin will stand up to heavyweight power. He only absorbed six total strikes from Gane in his division debut, none particularly damaging.
Jones has never been knocked down in the UFC, but there's a case that Miocic is the hardest puncher he's faced. He has nine knockout wins at heavyweight, and is the only man to (officially) knock out former two-divison champ Daniel Cormier.
A classic boxer-wrestler, Miocic has used his size and strength to land heavy shots or take opponents down depending on the matchup. Until this point, Miocic has been either clearly the better striker or better wrestler against everyone he's fought. He was able to take down strikers like Francis Ngannou and Alistair Overeem, while knocking out grapplers like Cormier and Fabricio Werdum.
It's hard to see him doing either against Jones, at least not at this point in his career.
Jones vs Miocic Pick and Prediction
This feels like a borderline squash match for Jones, who's still near the prime age for a heavyweight MMA fighter. While I have no interest in laying more than -600 on his moneyline, there's other ways to play it.
My two favorite bets are Jones by T/KO at +135 and Jones in the first three rounds at -145, both on FanDuel. Given Miocic's bad knockout loss in his last fight, I'm going with the former for half of a unit. Miocic has also never been submitted, so the knockout prop feels like a solid line relative to Jones by finish at +250.
Just for fun, I'm also sprinkling a tenth of a unit on a point to be deducted in this fight at +2000 on DraftKings. Jones will almost certainly land an eye poke, so we're betting on a ref to actually call it. It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened.
Billy's Picks: Jones via T/KO (+135 via FanDuel | .5u) | Point to be Deducted (+2000 via DraftKings | .1u)
