Check out the Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson odds for UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Jim Miller is still going. At 41 years old, Miller already holds the record for the most fights (44) and wins (26) in UFC history. He famously fought at UFC 100, 200, and 300 — but isn't stopping there.
The UFC has kindly been giving him competitive fights against other veterans in the twilight of his career, and he's won two of his last four, with both wins earning him performance of the night bonuses.
He's got another reaosnably close matchup with Damon "The Leech" Jackson. Jackson is 36 with just one win — via split decision — in his last four. Jackson is going off as a slight favorite here, but can Miller turn back the clock one more time?
Here's my Miller vs. Jackson pick and prediction.
Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson Odds
| Miller Odds | +150 |
| Jackson Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +110) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 309 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 309 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Billy Ward's Tale of the Tape
| Miller | Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 37-18 | 23-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:49 | 10:21 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 71" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/30/1983 | 8/8/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.5 | 3.47 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.50 | 3.47 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.53 | 2.34 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 34% |
| TD Def | 47% | 37% |
| Submission Avg | 1.7 | 1.2 |
The resurgence of Jim Miller has been one of the most fun stories of the past few years. In a sport known for feeding the old to the young, Miller has managed to reinvent himself and stay relevant into his 20th year of professional fighting.
Young Jim Miller was a cardio machine known primarily for his elite grappling, with a submission win over a young Charles Oliveira. A bout with Lyme disease in 2013 severely impacted his cardio, with extended losing streaks that nearly cost him as job.
Late career Jim Miller is a different animal. He's reinvented himself as a fast-starting power puncher, who comes forward with heavy kicks and straight punches from his left power side.
His last nine wins have all came inside the distance, and even in recent losses to King Green and Alexander Hernandez, Miller has won the first round. His durability has held up well, with his last stoppage loss coming via submission to Oliveria in 2018.
However, cardio continues to be a problem for Miller. He took plenty of damage from both Green and Hernandez later into their fights, and noticeably fades as fights extend.
That makes Jackson the perfect opponent for Miller here. Jackson also does his best work early, and is most known for his quick knockout win over Pat Sabatini in 2022. This will be the first UFC fight at lightweight for Jackson after mostly competing at 145 pounds, so it will be interesting to see if that helps his cardio a bit.
One thing it won't help is his durability. Jackson has been knocked down in two of his last four fights, and was nearly finished with strikes on the ground against Chepe Mariscal in his last fight.
Jackson has the submission skills to more or less keep up with Miller, though Mariscal pointed out the flaws in his takedown defense. I'm not sure if that's a repeatable plan from Miller — Mariscal primarily used Judo throws while Miller's background is wrestling — but I also don't see Jackson winning many wrestling exchanges with Miller.
That should leave us with a higher-paced standup fight as both men look to brawl early. In some ways, this fight is a store-brand version of the Chandler-Oliveira main event, with Miller playing the role of the powerful Chandler.
Miller vs. Jackson Pick, Prediction
It's always tricky to handicap fights where both participants are cardio liabilities. It's hard to predict who gasses first, and totals are tricky as well. If both fighters gas it's harder for finishes to happen, but if one has a slightly deeper gas tank they can put their opponent away.
I have some optimism that the 155-pound version of Jackson has a bit more to give down the stretch than he did at 145 pounds. He was always big for featherweight at 5'11", and presumably had a fairly tough weight cut.
On the other hand, Miller certainly has the early finishing upside here. Power is the last thing to go, and it's hard to trust Jackson's chin at a higher weight class.
Therefore, I'm splitting my exposure between two picks: Jim Miller's moneyline at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds at +110, both at DraftKings. We'll turn a slight profit if either bet hits, but we can obviously hit both with a Miller finish. With both picks coming at plus-money, half a unit on each limits our total exposure to one unit.
Billy's Picks: Jim Miller (+150) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)
