Aussie Rules Football Odds: GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats
- Spread: GWS -12.5
- Over/Under: 145.5
- Time: 4:40 a.m. ET
Odds as of Friday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Without a doubt the most talent-packed match of Round 1 features a team that has existed for more than a century against a team that has existed for less than a decade. The 8-year-old Greater Western Sydney Giants host the 161-year-old Geelong Cats in GIANTS Stadium on Saturday morning at 4:40 a.m. ET.
(Side note: Yes, the Giants really stylize their stadium name in all caps. They also typically capitalize their team name but for the sake of clarity, it will be in regular formatting throughout this article. Additionally, Greater Western Sydney is often shortened to GWS, and that will be adhered to.)
Both Geelong and GWS tasted success in 2019 but fell short of the ultimate prize. Geelong won the “minor premiership” after finishing the regular season at the top of the ladder but were ultimately defeated by eventual champions Richmond. GWS made the Grand Final for the first time in their short history but were defeated by Richmond in a game that was never close. Both teams are seen as contenders and both sides are brimming with talent.
Geelong midfielder Patrick Dangerfield is the third favorite to win the Brownlow Medal (AFL MVP), and he and teammate Gary Ablett Jr. have combined to win the medal three times previously. These two teams also roster three of the top nine goal-scorers from 2019, including GWS spearhead Jeremy Cameron, who kicked a whopping 76 goals. Unsurprisingly given the above, they finished second (Geelong) and fourth (GWS) overall in scoring last season. Even with the shortened quarters, the total of 146.5 (-112 DraftKings) is well within reach based on the talent on the field.
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Supporting that hypothesis is the location of this game, as the Giants averaged 106.4 points per game at home in 2019. They also came out flying in the preseason, going undefeated and averaging 115 points in two victories. In contrast to the unstoppable force of the Giants’ offense is the immovable object that is the Cats’ stifling defense. Geelong allowed by far the fewest points in 2019, surrendering only 66.5 points per game.
Given the strength of Geelong's defense, it is hard to imagine seeing the Cats as double-digit underdogs in this particular matchup. Teams don’t outscore their opponents by nearly 24 points per game over an entire season by accident. The Cats’ defense and the chance of pre-game rain in Sydney give me pause on the over, but taking Geelong — which was the best team in the 2019 regular season — with the spread of +12.5 is a no-brainer.
If you’re feeling frisky, the Giants were the only team to hand the Cats a loss in Geelong last year. While there is no noticeable bad blood, the Cats might be extra motivated to avenge the four-point defeat and cash the moneyline of +160.
The Pick: Geelong +12.5
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