Deontay Wilder & Anthony Joshua Odds, Pick & Boxing Prediction: Best Bets for Day of Reckoning

In typical overly marinated boxing fashion, Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua are finally going to step into the same arena, the same ring, and on the same night – but against different opponents.

Yes, it should piss you off, too.

Welcome to Saturday's Day of Reckoning pay-per-view event (noon ET, DAZN and ESPN+) from Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

There, long-time former WBC heavyweight champion Wilder (43-2-1, 42 KOs) is instead fighting fellow former titlist Joseph Parker (33-3, 23 KOs) as the co-feature. And in the main event, once-unified champion Joshua (26-3, 23 KOs) will face contender Otto Wallin (26-1, 14 KOs).

It helps cap off a strong year for boxing – there's one more big fight on Dec. 26, which I'll preview later in the week – and it's one of the most stacked cards of the year.

Joshua and Wilder are fighting credible contenders, Canelo Alvarez defeater Dmitry Bivol snuck onto the card and will compete for the first time this year, heavyweight contenders Daniel Dubois and Jarrell Miller are engaged in a grudge match that could be fight of the night, and heavyweight contender Frank Sanchez and former cruiserweight champion Jai Opetaia are among others slated to compete.

Yes, it's a pretty big afternoon of boxing.

But here, we'll get into Joshua's and Wilder's fights.

Wilder vs. Parker Odds & Prediction

We'll start with the co-main event of Wilder vs. Parker (fighter walkouts: approx. 5:35 p.m. ET).

Wilder, unsurprisingly, has the physical advantages here. He's 6-foot-7 with an 83-inch reach – nearly seven feet – and Parker is 6-foot-4 with a 76-inch reach, which is equal to his height. By God, Wilder uses that entire reach.

Wilder is significantly older, having turned 38 in October, while Parker will turn 32 shortly after New Year's.

Wilder, however, started boxing after Parker. Wilder famously didn't begin boxing until he was 20 in late 2005, and he was able to secure a bronze medal in the 2008 Olympics less than three years later – an all-time freak athletic achievement. Parker had joined a gym at age 10, in 2002.

Wilder, since turning pro in 2008, has boxed only 162 rounds across 46 bouts whereas Parker – a pro since 2012 – has logged 226 rounds through 36 bouts.

Rounds per fight:

• Wilder: 3.5
• Parker: 6.3

That gives you an idea of why the lines are where they are – with Wilder having an 88.9% implied win probability (-800).

Sure, Wilder is older, but Parker is seen as further removed from his prime because of the differences in career arcs. And plus, if there's a division in which it's OK to age, it's heavyweight – if you stay in shape year-round, as Wilder does.

Wilder's two losses? Both famous stoppages to Tyson Fury, whom he almost knocked out in two of their three trilogy bouts. Wilder also dropped Fury four times across their three bouts. His signature wins have come against Luis Ortiz (twice), Gerald Washington and, most recently, Robert Helenius, whom he knocked out with the third punch he landed in the October 2022 fight.

Parker was the undefeated WBO heavyweight champion prior to his first loss, a unanimous decision defeat to the aforementioned Joshua in March 2018 in a unification bout, later losing to Dillian Whyte four months later in a closer but also unanimous decision loss. In that bout, Parker tasted the canvas for the first and second time in his career.

Parker's third loss came via KO against Joe Joyce in September 2022, a knockout of the year contender. Parker's won three fights since, all this year, concluded by a third-round KO over seldom-known Simon Kean to win a pair of intercontinental heavyweight titles.

Joshua vs. Wallin Odds & Prediction

In the Day of Reckoning main event of Joshua vs. Wallin (fighter walkouts: approx. 7:45 p.m. ET), Joshua returns for his third bout of the year.

He's been busy after back-to-back losses to Oleksandr Usyk in 2021 and 2022. He unanimously outpointed Jermaine Franklin in April, and he knocked out Helenius (yup, same one), who made it to Round 7 despite being called in under a week's notice (thanks to Whyte failing a drug test).

Like Wilder, Joshua has advantages in this fight, standing at 6-foot-6 with an 82-inch reach whereas Wallin is nearly 6-foot-6 but with a 78-inch reach.

Joshua, who is more than two years removed from being champion, has a challenge on his hands in Wallin. Wallin is best known for going all 12 rounds with Fury in September 2019. That was Fury's second bout after the initial draw with Wilder before the end of 2018.

Wallin notably awarded Fury a gruesome gash above his right eye during Round 3 of their encounter after landing a perfectly placed left hook that subsequently required 47 stitches to seal.

Fury won unanimously by scores of 116-112, 117-111 and 118-110.

Wallin has won six straight since, most recently scoring an upset split-decision win over Murat Gassiev in September.

The southpaw's most notable victory otherwise perhaps came in February 2021 against Dominic Breazeale, whom he defeated by unanimous decision.

Breazeale was stopped by Joshua in Round 7 of their 2016 bout while undefeated. His second loss came to Wilder via first-round KO in 2019.

(Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting coming online in 2024, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more.)

Wilder & Parker Picks

You absolutely have to lean toward Wilder by KO, but it's -330 or so at best, so "group round betting" we go! (I would recommend the KO as a parlay leg, though, if you're looking for a more conservative play.)

I like Wilder by KO in Rounds 5-8, listed at +145 on FanDuel. I think Parker is good enough to survive and win rounds from Wilder, but as you should know, Wilder deliberately will give you rounds while setting up the perfect time to knock your ass out, a strategy that has worked against everyone but Fury – and even that almost did … twice.

The over/under is listed at 6.5, and that total feels like the perfect number to wrap your group round betting KO around. Wilder has three of his last seven KOs in this range.

For the other Day of Reckoning co-feature, I think it's a Joshua via decision victory, listed +137 at bet365.

Wallin has never been stopped, and he survived Fury while never being dropped. Joshua is boxing more conservatively as he ages, and against a tricky southpaw, I think he'll be reserved in his approach and use his length to counter and not force a brawl.

I also have two long-shot sprinkles I'd consider:

• Wilder by KO in Round 1 (+2100 at FanDuel) – three of his past five KOs were in Round 1
• A knockdown in Round 1 (+1400 FanDuel) for Wilder vs. Parker

If you bet one, bet the other.

Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!

The Picks: Deontay Wilder in Rounds 5-8 (+145 on FanDuel) | Anthony Joshua via decision (+137 at bet365)

Bet Wilder in Rounds 5-8 Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!