This is, for boxing nerds, a Fight of the Year contender.
Artur Beterbiev (21-0, 20 knockouts) will once again stand across Dmitry Bivol (23-1, 12 knockouts) and fight for the Undisputed Light Heavyweight Championship of the world. Beterbiev unified all the titles between the two in their previous Undisputed Championship bout in October.
And like that one, this will be way out in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for rea$on$.
In any event, these are the two best light heavyweight boxers in the world, and while I have questions about how much this fight will resonate beyond boxing fans — it should because these are two of the pound-for-pound best in the world engaging in a 50/50 ish bout, which the sport doesn't always provide at the highest level.
And that's not just from a betting perspective — that's in the ring, too.
On to the Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol preview and prediction!
Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol Breakdown
Beterbiev is arguably the best pressure fighter and best power puncher in boxing. These attributes are ultimately what elevated him in the eyes of the judges despite the punch stats, courtesy of CompuBox.
Why despite? Because Beterbiev was very inaccurate for enough portions of the fight to where you could see a Bivol decision. In fact, many did.
I thought Bivol edged Beterbiev out 115-113, but I had him with a sizeable lead heading into the final three rounds, where he squandered the fight — according to the judges and other observers — because of inactivity as Beterbiev got going offensively.
Bivol's superpower is his conditioning. He's also one of the best technicians in boxing, who is fast as hell for 175 pounds, and has incredible footwork. For the first nine rounds, it felt like he was near flawless and in pole position to win before Beterbiev took the final nine minutes of the bout by force.
In short, Beterbiev is the boxer puncher, and Bivol is the counter puncher. Beterbiev also just turned 40 last month, and Bivol just turned 34 two months ago.
Beterbiev vs. Bivol Prediction, Pick
There are a couple of ways I want to play this.
I wanted to ride with Bivol by decision again. Friend of the network Raheem Palmer swung me toward Beterbiev by decision. And where I'm at is this: Bivol can outbox Beterbiev again, sure, but he needs to be near perfect to possible get a fair shake from the judges, if they once again reward aggression over counter punching.
Additionally, Bivol is in a position where, as the challenger, he has to take more chances. And in doing so, he'll open himself up to exchanges with the much stronger Beterbiev. More exchanges equals less movement from Bivol, giving Beterbiev a stationary target. Bivol will still move and use the ring as best he could, but in doing so too much, he'd risk yet another decision loss.
So first, I'll take Beterbiev but on the moneyline at -130 on DraftKings. I'm not interested beyond -135, though. Bivol is too good.
So, why not the decision? Because of Bivol is going to take more chances, it also makes way for a potential Beterbiev stoppage.
Now, I have a hedge I like. On DraftKings, they offer Bivol by majority decision at +1,200 and split decision at +700. I'd nibble on both. If Bivol wins, it's more likely than these implied odds indicate that he'd win one of these two ways as opposed to the +230 unanimous decision.
It's betting on not the fight itself as much as it's betting on judging, and the inconsistency of boxing judges make this either the split or majority more viable from a longshot standpoint.
And if you want to be a conspiracy theorist, the outcome that is "best for boxing" is a close fight going to Bivol to force a third fight between the two, which would make even more money, presumably later in 2025.
But, for me, I want a Bivol ticket, and I don't think he wins by knockout, or a wide enough decision, given his measly margin for error.
Bet 1: Beterbiev moneyline (-130, DraftKings)
Longshot hedges: Bivol by split decision (+700) | Bivol by majority decision (+1,200)
Other Fights of Note
Daniel Dubois was in line to defend his IBF Heavyweight Title but withdrew due to illness. In his place is new fan favorite and heavyweight monster truck Martin Bakole, who derailed undefeated American heavyweight Jared Anderson's career by knocking him out last August.
He's fighting Joseph Parker, a tactical, counter-punching heavyweight with pop, who was a better than 2-to-1 underdog vs. Dubois. My thinking was that this will likely be Bakole by KO/TKO (+195 on FanDuel) or Parker by decision (+330 on FD)… until Friday's weigh ins.
By the time Parker weighed in, Bakole was still in flight, and landed later Friday. He's expecting to show up massive. Two fights ago, he was 300 pounds, and he had much more than two days notice. Parker weighed 267 pounds. He's never been over 255 in his career, and he lost in that fight, an 11th-round knockout to Joe Joyce over two years ago. Unique circumstances make this a tough call. Parker is heavier and didn't prepare for Bakole, he prepared for Dubois. And while Bakole answered the bell, we have no idea what his training regimen actually was. I'm leaning over 1.5 knockdowns at +120 on FanDuel.
