We have three fights tonight that we're monitoring for boxing best bets as we find creative ways to get logical and realistic value from a trio of heavy betting favorites on Saturday night.
So yes, even though you'll see some gaudy moneylines in this week's boxing preview, by the end, you'll understand why they're still worth betting if you make the right call and look at the right markets.
We have two bouts in Texas plus a fight from Australia – all airing live on Saturday night here in the U.S.
We begin the proceedings with our ESPN bouts and conclude with the weekend's international offering on Showtime.
Boxing Best Bets for October 14
Janibek Alimkhanuly vs Vincenzo Gualtieri Odds
Janibek Alimkhanuly (14-0, 9 KOs) is the reigning WBO middleweight champion signed to Top Rank and has become an ESPN and ESPN + regular over the last few years while rising to world level in the 160-pound class.
Since becoming middleweight champion last year, he's had two successful title defenses and is unifying with IBF middleweight champion Vincenzo Gualtieri (21-0-1, 7 KOs), who won the vacant title in July.
This forthcoming unification bout will be Gualtieri's first fight outside of Germany in his career.
Alimkhanuly is a huge favorite, and I've seen his moneyline anywhere from -1200 to -1800 this week. Needless to say, I think he wins this fight, but in searching for value and a bit more of a payoff, we look at method of victory in this sport, and group round betting if you're expecting a knockout.
Alimkhanuly is -178 to win by KO/TKO on FanDuel – not quite good enough for me. He's +240 by decision there, and while the knockout is expected, it's not a shoo-in. Many thought Alimkhanuly would knock out Denzel Bentley last November, largely because he was KO'd the year before in three rounds by Felix Cash, who has since been viewed as overrated. (I might argue the same about Alimkhanuly, but he should win this fight.)
I think Alimkhanuly wins either via late stoppage or by decision – unless he catches Gualtieri early. That sounded like me just covering all my bases, didn't it? What a coward.
Anyway, Zhanibek by decision at – which +250 at DraftKings as of this writing – is the bet. Gualtieri won't be in a rush to mix it up with the power-punching middleweight, is awkward enough to survive for 12 rounds, and has never been stopped in his career (I don't think he's ever been dropped either, but there are a few fights in Frankfurt and Kreuzberg clubs and theaters I need to check in on before verifying such a claim.)
Pick: Janibek Alimkhanuly by decision (+250 at DraftKings)
Keyshawn Davis vs Nahir Albright Odds
In terms of star power, Keyshawn Davis (9-0, 6 KOs) is the guy worth paying most attention to this weekend.
He's a lightweight blue-chip prospect who is 24, has already defeated two former world title contenders, and has been a pro for less than three years.
At this rate, Davis should be fighting for a world title in the next year or two, assuming he continues his streak against Nahir Albright (16-2, 7 KOs).
Davis is a -2500 favorite at DraftKings and perhaps slightly more palatable but still extremely long at your book of choice.
As Davis has elevated in competition, he has stopped only one of his last three opponents, that being former contender Anthony Yigit, who had been stopped twice in the seventh round previously, in Round 9 of 10.
Of Davis' six knockouts, only two came against fighters who hadn't been stopped previously – Jose Zaragoza and Richman Ashelley. Respectfully, neither of them requires your attention as it pertains to this lil' blurb.
There's a reason Davis is -146 to win by decision and +164 to win by knockout despite being as wide as a -3000 favorite. I think Albright, who survived 10 rounds with lightweight contender Jamaine Ortiz – even winning three, according to two judges – can survive 10 with Davis, who is more tactical and economical than his flashy knockouts may suggest.
I think Davis impresses once again, and he could be in line for a late stoppage, but we'll take the decision.
Tim Tszyu vs Brian Mendoza Odds
Tim Tszyu (23-0, 17 KOs) was elevated to WBO super welterweight champion with the opening bell of Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo.
Charlo was the undisputed champion at 154 pounds but was stripped of the title because boxing is boxing.
Tszyu was the interim champion at 154 pounds, and he'll defend the full world title in his Australian home on Sunday (but airing live in the U.S. on Saturday night) against Brian Mendoza (22-2, 16 KOs). Mendoza knocked out a then-undefeated Sebastian Fundora in April, dually a Knockout of the Year and Upset of the Year contender.
Tszyu is better than Fundora, though. He's around a -650 favorite, so not nearly as big as Davis or Zhanibek, but I still expect him to win.
Mendoza was losing every round on the cards against Fundora, but even I said the KO sprinkle on the heavy underdog was worth it because the 6-foot-6 rangy Fundora insists on fighting like he's a 5-foot-3 brawler. Mendoza exposed him and planted him on his ass.
Tszyu is much smarter, more technically sound, and will have a two-inch reach advantage over Mendoza. I think Mendoza will have his moments, and if the fight is in a small ring like Tszyu had against Tony Harrison earlier this year, this could be a straight-up brawl.
But like he did against Harrison, I think Tszyu gets a late stoppage over Mendoza, who has never been stopped before.
Pick: Tim Tszyu in Rounds 7-12 (+165 at DraftKings)
