This weekend, we're doing our boxing preview differently. Three fights, three bets.
We've got a vacant middleweight championship fight in Germany to kick off the Saturday slate. We have an undisputed super middleweight championship bout on ESPN+. And we have arguably the best prospect in boxing on ESPN.
Let's not waste time and jump into today's boxing best bets.
Vincenzo Gualtieri vs. Esquiva Falcao Odds and Analysis
Esquiva Falcao (30-0, 20 KOs) is a 5-foot-10 skilled southpaw with a 73-inch reach who will be on the road for his bout with German Vincenzo Gualtieri (20-0-1, 7 KOs), who'll be fighting in his Wuppertal home.
Falcao is a fairly big favorite, but he's +125 to win by knockout and +170 to win by decision.
I'm confident Falcao wins this fight – but not entirely that he'll get the stoppage. He has 20 KO victories but none against opponents of note relative to this contest.
Falcao doesn't neglect the body, has a keen awareness of knowing when to pressure and when not to, and while not perfect, he isn't overly careless.
I think he mostly outboxes and out-skills Gualtieri enough to get the decision in Germany.
Pick: Esquiva Falcao via decision or points (+170) |
Franchon Crews-Dezurn vs. Savannah Marshall Odds and Analysis
Why in the hell is Savannah Marshall such a big favorite?
Marshall (12-1, 2 KOs) should probably win this by decision because she's rated higher, last fought in October – as opposed to undisputed super middleweight champ Franchon Crews-Dezurn (8-1, 2 KOs), who returns after 15 months – and despite being the challenger, gets the fight in her backyard: England.
Marshall is about 6-feet tall and has a 72-inch reach. And while Crews-Dezurn is 5-foot-8, they have the same reach.
Marshall's only loss was to undisputed middleweight champion Claressa Shields in October. And while the judges scored it between 97-93 and 96-94 for Shields, it probably felt more like 98-92 with the hometown judges keeping it close.
Crews-Dezurn, however, is looking to avenge an amateur loss to Marshall. Her lone defeat as a pro was also to Shields, but that was in their respective pro debuts after the 2016 Olympics.
Really, Marshall as a -425 favorite (81% implied win probability) is bonkers, and even longer than -200 (66.7%) by decision seems ambitious.
Knowing that Crews-Dezurn will have to beat the British judges, the safest pick is Marshall on points. However, I'm zagging and rolling with the champion, Crews-Dezurn, by decision at +600 at bet365.
The value on that bet is too good not to pass up, especially since Marshall is a bit overrated while Crews-Dezurn is a bit underrated heading into the fight.
The Pick: Franchon Crews-Dezurn via decision or technical decision (+600 at bet365)
Jared Anderson vs. Charles Martin Odds and Analysis
Absolutely no one is talking about the opponent, so I will briefly.
Charles Martin (29-3-1, 26 KOs) is one of the most surprising heavyweight champions in recent boxing history. He won the title in a bout with Vyacheslav Glazkov because of a knee injury in January 2016 on the Deontay Wilder vs. Artur Szpilka card at Barclays Center.
In his first title defense, he was knocked out in two rounds by Anthony Joshua three months later. It was Joshua's first title. Martin has one notable win in the seven years since – a February 2020 TKO over Gerald Washington – and losses to Adam Kownacki (2018 decision) and Luis Ortiz (Round 6 TKO in January 2022) since.
And that's Charles Martin.
The heavily hyped Anderson (14-0, 14 KOs) is fighting in his hometown (Toledo, Ohio) against a former champion who is more name than game at this level today.
Expect a knockout from the hometown "Big Baby" – and an early one, too. Anderson has had only one KO come after Round 4 in his career, and it was in Round 6. However, this is easily his toughest test to date.
I'd be comfortable with Anderson by KO between Rounds 1-5, knowing that "Big Baby" is a fast starter, has incredible power, is home, and if Martin gets rocked badly early (he should), the referee may be 10% jumpier to end it early. It's only -175 at DraftKings, and it's the bet.
