Alvarez vs. Smith Boxing Odds
This Saturday Canelo Alvarez (54-1-2, 36 KO) is matched up against mandatory challenger Avni Yildirim (21-2, 12 KO) in what may be one of the least interesting matchups we’ve seen for Alvarez in recent memory. The two fighters face off for the WBA and WBC Super Middleweight titles at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
Yildirim enters this fight after a two-year layoff while Alvarez is coming off a decisive win from just over two months ago. Can Yildirim defy the long odds and upset the world's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter? Let's take a look at the odds and break it down.
Yildirim is the Longest of Longshots
Many Canelo detractors will see this as an indefensible cherry pick, but this fight is essentially a stay busy matchup for Alvarez to fulfill his mandatory obligation for his the WBC Super Middleweight title.
Yildirim is Canelo’s sparring partner and lost his last fight back in 2019 against Anthony Dirrell — a fight that ended in a controversial technical decision given that it was stopped due to a cut over Dirrell's eye from an earlier clash of heads.
To make matters worse, Yildirim is the first opponent Alvarez has faced since James Kirkland in 2015, who at no point in his career won a world title. Yildirim was demolished in just three rounds by Chris Eubank Jr. Are supposed to believe he has a chance against the best boxer in the sport?
If Canelo wasn’t already looking past this match for his upcoming unification bout against undefeated Billy Joe Saunders in May and Caleb Plant later this year, it would be hard to respect this fight.
As Andre Ward stated, it’s a good idea for Alvarez to have a fight to keep busy against an inferior opponent before taking on some of the toughest competition within the sport.
Still, there’s a reason oddsmakers have Alvarez priced as a -5000 favorite, and -1430 to win KO/TKO with an over/under of 4.5 rounds.
To be honest, this fight is so uninteresting that I initially had trouble coming up with an angle worth it to actually bet this fight given the amount of juice it takes to bet on Canelo. However, thanks to a tip from my good friend @bronerp4p on Twitter, who is one of the premier boxing handicappers, I think we’ve found one.
Yildirim is one dimensional — he comes straight forward while lacking lateral movement and doesn’t have the punching power to keep Alvarez off of him. Although Yildirim is 5-foot-11, he has the same reach as Alvarez and we’ve seen Alvarez beat up on bigger fighters.
This is a fight in which Alvarez’ hand speed and power should overwhelm him and I expect to see a knockout.
Alvarez vs. Yildirim Betting Pick
Given his upcoming fight against Saunders, I don’t expect Alvarez to spend much time playing with his food and suspect he'll try to end this as quickly as possible.
In my view, the value in this fight is on the under 4.5 rounds and DraftKings has the best odds in the market at -113.
There’s been some sharp money on Canelo to win in Rounds 1-6, which moved the line from -180 to -278. If you’re inclined to lay the juice, you can bet that prop at BetMGM, which has a better price (-250).
