Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Odds
Boxing’s cash cow, the reigning unified WBA/WBC/WBO Super Middleweight champion and pound-for-pound king, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (56-1-2, 38 KO) returns to the ring to take on the undefeated IBF Super-Middleweight title holder in Caleb Plant (21-0, 12 KO) in bout to become the first ever undisputed Super Middleweight champion in the history of boxing.
Like any other Canelo fight, he’s priced as a heavy favorite with odds at -1000, which gives him an implied probability of 85% to win and become the first undisputed super middleweight champion.
Is Alvarez as much of a lock to make history at 168 pounds as his odds suggest? Our two boxing analysts, Raheem Palmer and Malik Smith, break down the fight and give their favorite bets below.
Is Canelo Alvarez Still Getting Better?
Raheem Palmer: Alvarez has become such a staple in the boxing world at this point in his career it can be easy to forget how truly great his resume is at a relatively young age. He has won belts in four different weight classes — 154 pounds, 160 pounds, 168 pounds and 175 pounds — holds a 15-1-1 record against current or former world champions, and handed five of those former champs their first professional loss.
He's been so good for so long that you'd be forgiven if you forgot that his first and only career loss came at the hands Floyd Mayweather Jr. when Alvarez was just 23 years old. His growth has been tremendous and the case could easily be made that Canelo is still improving, which could spell bad news for Plant in this fight.
So what makes Alvarez so great?
Among the many things on that list, versatility is at the top. With 59 professional bouts on his resume, he has fought just about every style of fighter you can imagine — hard hitters, elusive fighters, technically sound boxers — and conquered them all with the exception of Mayweather.
He's one of the most accurate fighters in the sports per CompuBox's tracking data, landing 47.5% of his total punches (tied with Terence Crawford for second-highest rate). For a fighter who has some devastating knockout wins, his power isn't overt, but it tends to wear on his opponents — his past six fights have ended in a stoppage.
In his most recent fight, Billy Joe Saunders seemed to have Alvarez where he wanted him in Rounds 4-7 before Alvarez came back in the eighth with a barrage of head and body shots that forced Saunders to quit on the stool before the next round.
And then there's the defense.
In Canelo's past five fights, he hasn't allowed an opponent to land even a quarter of their total punches on him:
Alvarez Opponent Connect Percentage – Past Five Fights
| Date | Opponent | Pct Landed |
|---|---|---|
| May 2021 | Billy Joe Saunders | 21% |
| Feb. 2021 | Avni Yildirim | 10% |
| Dec. 2020 | Callum Smith | 18% |
| Nov. 2019 | Sergey Kovalev | 15% |
| May 2019 | Daniel Jacobs | 20% |
These numbers span fights in three weight classes against boxers who each had the height advantage and all but one (Yildirim) had a reach advantage. Canelo is just a different beast.
Plant is stepping into a completely different stratosphere when he gets into the ring with Alvarez and it's likely that his his own height (5-inches taller) and reach (3.5-inches longer) advantage do little to help him. For what it's worth, Plant oozes confidence, but his experience at this level is lacking.
He fights behind a strong jab, but certainly doesn't have the power that previous Alvarez opponents brought to the table. He won his most recent fight against Caleb Truax going away, but wasn't able to put down a man who had two TKO losses on his record already.
To win a fight against Alvarez, Plant will need to either dominate for 12 rounds and win on volume, or score a knockdown and potentially a knockout. That's a tall task against the top fighter on the planet.
Alvarez vs. Plant Pick
The extra motivation Plant stirred up from disrespecting Canelo’s mother during a pre-fight press conference certainly doesn’t help his cause. And their scuffle ended with Plant cut under his right eye.
Don’t talk about my mom. pic.twitter.com/f1HQlEfUUE
— Canelo Alvarez (@Canelo) September 21, 2021
Motivation aside, this fight is a huge step up in class for Plant whose previous seven opponents before beating José Uzcátegui for the IBF super middleweight title had an average world ranking of 159.5.
It’s tough to pick against Canelo in any fight and with recent stoppages against Saunders, Yıldırım and Kovalev, the results of his fights are reaching Floyd Mayweather Jr. levels of inevitability.
The biggest issue for Plant in this matchup is that he doesn’t have the power to keep Canelo honest and given his tendency to lunge when throwing punches, we could see Canelo time him similar to when he broke Saunders orbital bone with an uppercut.
Canelo’s counter punching ability is still one of the best in the sport and while Plant does have solid speed and good movement, we could see his flaws exposed against the best fighter in the sport. Canelo still has the tendency to take rounds off but this is the best fighter in the sport who is getting better every fight even at 31 years old.
With 21 fights in his career, Plant doesn’t have the resume nor the experience to match Canelo. Look for Plant to make it competitive early and for Canelo to break him down and get a late stoppage. BetMGM has the best odds for Alvarez to get a win by KO/TKO at -190 and I'd bet this up to -210.
The Pick: Canelo Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ (-190)
Malik Smith: Canelo is overpriced here in my opinion, which is the norm for favorites in boxing, but even if he was priced fairly — around -590 (85.53% implied) — betting his moneyline wouldn't be worth it.
Plant is no pushover and I think his style will take Canelo some time to adjust to as he figures how best to attack the IBF champ. Plant has the name 'Sweethands' for a reason, but I'm curious to see how he much he moves his head and feet. Canelo hasn't struggled with many fighters since his first loss, but guys who move well tend to make Alvarez have to work harder.
I expect Alvarez to pressure Plant throughout and try to get him into exchanges so he can work the body and slow his opponent down. That will take time, though, which is why I'm leaning toward betting the total in two ways.
I think there's value on betting this fight to go under. Four of Canelo's past eight fight's have gone to a decision and the other four were stoppage wins. Three of the four stoppage wins came in the eighth round or earlier and the other came in the 11th when he moved up to 175 pounds to fight Kovalev.
Canelo's approach is much different when he is fighting legitimate punchers compared to guys who box and win rounds; he went the distance with Smith, Jacobs and Golovkin who are all legitimate knockout punchers. And on the off chance that Plant catches Canelo slipping, I don't see it happening in the later rounds when his punches will have less zip on them.
I'd bet the under 10 rounds at -125, but I'll also put some money on the fight to end between Rounds 5-8 at +200 at BetMGM.
The Pick: Under 10 (-125) | Fight Ends Rounds 5-8 (+200)
