Canelo Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga Odds
| Alvarez Odds | -2000 |
| Berlanga Odds | +950 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 rounds (-138 / +100) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas |
| Time (Main Card) | 8 p.m. ET |
| Main Event Walkouts | Approx. 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN pay-per-view (PPV cost: $89.99) |
| Boxing odds as of Saturday evening and via bet365. Bet on Alvarez vs. Berlanga with our bet365 promo code! | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga odds for Saturday, September 14.
Mexico vs. Puerto Rico is back!
Kinda … somewhat … not quite, if we're being honest.
From a literal standpoint, sure. Canelo Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) will be defending his WBO, WBA and WBC super middleweight titles against Edgar Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) in tonight's pay-per-view main event (DAZN PPV, cost: $89.99) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
And everywhere you turn, this will be billed as Mexico vs. Puerto Rico returning to the forefront of boxing rivalries – one of the greatest feuds ever.
We discussed boxing's Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry last week, in case you missed it, in more detail.
But this isn't at all an even matchup – Alvarez hasn't had one of those since he fought Dmitry Bivol more than two years ago.
So – again – to me, this isn't really part of the Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rivalry because of the large disparity of quality in opposition here.
But hey, two guys are boxing, and Berlanga – while a massive underdog – has to have a chance, right?
Well, let's see.
Here's my Canelo vs. Berlanga pick and prediction for Saturday night's PPV main event.
Canelo vs. Berlanga Breakdown & Analysis
Alvarez doesn't have all the phyiscal advantages here.
And yes, in all likelihood it won't matter, but for the purposes of doing my job correctly, I'll make sure you know them anyway.
Alvarez stands at 5-foot-9 (maybe) and is outsized by 6-foot-1 Berlanga, who will also have a 2- or 2.5-inch reach advantage, 73 to 70.5ish.
Will be use it? He'll try.
Will he be successful?
Alvarez is one of the best in the world at understanding range, which is unconventional to say about someone short for his weight class, but still, he's so defensively sharp that he manages to outbox taller fights on the outside on a regular basis.
Alvarez gets in and out of the pocket with ease and the fluidity that defies someone in professional year 19 and age 34 – which Alvarez is.
He's better at everything than Berlanga is.
Berlanga's chance is what, exactly? Well, one is that he just catches him. Could it happen? Sure, it's boxing, sh-t happens.
But Alvarez – in 65 pro fights – has never been dropped despite being caught clean plenty of times. He's got one of the best chins in boxing. But you could argue that Berlanga has a power advantage if you want (I probably wouldn't), but it won't matter unless Berlanga could land cleanly.
What makes the Bori tantalizing is that he does have finishing ability. And if you're going to bet on an underdog, you kinda need them to have finishing ability – a rule of mine – unless they possess the ability to outbox their opponent in dominating fashion. And Berlanga is straight up not doing that.
Alvarez has been convincingly outboxed twice in his career – Floyd Mayweather and Bivol. He arguably lost in other instances (see: Erislandy Lara and one or both of the first two bouts with Gennady Golovkin). But Berlanga, respectfully, is not in that class, unless he's just been holding out on us for eight years of professional boxing.
Berlanga is younger, too – point for him. He's 27, he's coming off his career-best performance, and he's an ascending talent.
Jaime Munguia had those same things before facing Alvarez in May – with a better resume – and it didn't matter. At all.
Bryan Fonseca's Canelo vs. Berlanga Prediction & Pick
This is the hard part.
Alvarez is -1000000 or something.
Berlanga is +500000ish.
(Not actually but close enough.)
I'm convinced of two things as it relates to how this plays out: 1) Alvarez wins going away, and 2) He drops Berlanga at least one time.
Finding value is unsurprisingly tricky, as is often the case when backing large favorites in anything but boxing especially.
If a sportsbook allows you to parlay these options, then so be it, but here's what I'm doing.
With a bet365 same-game parlay, you can play Canelo Alvarez to score 1 or more knockdowns at -400, parlayed with over 6.5 rounds, which gives you -120 odds. I don't think this is a smash KO or decision; I've gone back and forth on the pick. But I said even last week, if I do back a Canelo stoppage – which he scored against Caleb Plant in November 2021 (and notably zero since) – I would play Canelo to win by KO/TKO between Rounds 7-12 at plus money.
Canelo hasn't knocked out anyone in five fights, but admittedly, we may walk away from Saturday suggesting Berlanga would be the softest among those previous Alvarez challengers. But that's the official bet.
I'd also really recommend Canelo to score a knockdown as part of a parlay this weekend, and I like Berlanga to get knocked down between Rounds 1-6 (listed on FanDuel on boxing specials) at -115.
Elsewhere on the card, I really am intrigued by Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia in Saturday's co-main event. Lara is -250 out on the market. These two were supposed to fight at Barclays Center multiple different times, including last summer. Because of the delay, it'll be Garcia's first bout in more than two years. Conversely, it'll be Lara's stiffest test in five and a half. I'll be backing Lara by decision at plus money and might parlay that with Canelo to score a knockdown.
Enjoy the fights and don't go broke!
The Picks for Canelo vs. Berlanga:
- SGP: Canelo 1+ knockdowns + Over 6.5 rounds (-120 at bet365)
- Berlanga knocked down in Rounds 1-6 (-115 at FanDuel)
- Parlay piece: Canelo 1+ takedowns (-350 at FanDuel)
- Erislandy Lara by decision (+125 at FanDuel)
