Alvarez vs. Golovkin Odds
It’s once more into the breach for old foes Canelo Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KOs) and Gennady Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs) this Saturday night in Las Vegas, as the 40-year-old Golovkin gets one more chance to make right what he believed was wrong, and Alvarez gets another crack at shutting him up for good – possibly with a finish inside the distance.
It’s not often that the guy who comes into the trilogy fight with the only win is also the one with more to prove, but it might very well be the case for Alvarez here. He fought Golovkin to a draw (which many people felt was a gift bestowed by poor judging) in their first meeting in 2017, then eeked out a majority decision win (which also could have gone the other way) in the rematch a year later.
That’s left Golovkin with a lot of aggrieved criticisms of Alvarez, and he hasn’t been shy about voicing them. Now Alvarez gets probably the most vulnerable version of “Triple G” here in the third fight – this time up a division at super middleweight – and there’s every reason to think he’ll be looking to make a statement.
Oddsmakers sure seem to think there’s a good chance he’ll be successful in one form or another. Alvarez is currently a -550 favorite to win on the moneyline, with a +150 line to get it done via knockout or TKO.
That’s a lot of confidence behind the guy who may have been lucky to escape those first two meetings without losses, but there are also some good reasons to think this one could be a different fight.
Alvarez vs. Golovkin Goes Bigger
There are essentially two big questions about this version of Golovkin, and in this division.
The first has to do with Golovkin's age. He turned 40 back in April, and while he remained very, very good well into his mid-30s – no small feat, especially for a boxer in the speedy lighter weight classes – lately he’s started to look his age even while reeling off four straight wins since that majority decision loss to Alvarez.
Of particular concern is Golovkin’s susceptibility to punishing body blows. Alvarez is the bigger puncher between the two, and you have to think he’s seen the same tape on Golovkin that everyone else has. If he can get in there and hammer to the body, Golovkin may fold before too long.
That brings us to the other question: the weight. The first two fights both came at middleweight, but moving up a division to super middleweight for the third would seem to benefit Alvarez more than Golovkin.
He’s the one who will likely be able to translate the extra pounds into punching power, and there’s also probably less chance he’ll gas himself out early on like in the first meeting.
Alvarez is coming off an unsuccessful foray to light heavyweight in May, when he dropped a unanimous decision to Dmity Bivol. But at 32 he still seems a lot closer to his prime than Golovkin, which might explain how Golovkin went from opening as a slight favorite in the first two fights to a sizable underdog here in the third.
Alvarez vs. Golovkin Pick
Even if he’s lost a step, it’s important to remember that Golovkin still has the potential to be a tricky stylistic problem for Alvarez. Golovkin's quick jab and high-volume pressure style gave Alvarez trouble in the first two fights, with Golovkin outlanding Alvarez in total punches both times.
Alvarez has to focus on making his punches count for more, and against this version of Golovkin, he has a good chance to do that.
But as attractive as that +180 line from FanDuel on Alvarez by KO/TKO may be, I still think the safest bet may be the +105 line from Caesars on Alvarez via decision.
Golovkin may be a little older and slower, but I still don’t feel all that comfortable betting that he’ll allow himself to be stopped for the first time in his pro career by a bitter rival like Alvarez. Just through sheer will alone, I think Golovkin probably sees the scorecards.
However, if you are feeling a finish, the smart play is to take DraftKings’ +150 line on the fight lasting under 10.5 rounds.
