The long-awaited trilogy fight between Canelo Alvarez (57-2-2, 39 KO) and Gennadiy Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KO) is finally here after the two first met in 2017 and again in 2018. The two champions famously fought to a draw in the first meeting and Alvarez won a close decision in the second bout. The third bout will take place at the T-Mobile Arena Saturday night on DAZN.
While both men have been linked to each other in the years since their last battle, Alvarez has catapulted to the top of the sport and currently holds all the belts in the super middleweight division. He'll put those belts on the line against Golovkin who has become Canelo's key rival.
So how do oddsmakers see this matchup playing out? Read on for the odds and prop lines for this super fight.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin Odds
Odds as of Wednesday and via Caesars.
| Fighter | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | -500 | 80% |
| Golovkin | +380 | 20% |
Alvarez is a massive favorite against Golovkin entering their third bout despite coming off the second loss of his career at the hands of Dmitry Bivol.
It's tough to argue against Alvarez being the favorite considering how much he's improved since he and GGG last fought. Until his most recent loss, Alvarez showed that his dominance can span multiple weight divisions and he became the undisputed champion at 168 pounds.
Golovkin fought once already this past April, but he was inactive for 15 months prior to this year. At 40 years old, it appears Golovkin still has something left in the tank, but that isn't moving the odds much in his favor. In fact, GGG moved from +320 at open to +380.
And much like the first two fights, this fight is expected to go to the judges' scorecards with the juice on the distance prop and the over 10.5 rounds.
Alvarez vs. Golovkin Props
| Round Totals | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5 Rounds | -230 | +175 |
| Fight Goes the Distance? | Yes (-155) | No (+122) |
| Method of Victory | Alvarez | Golovkin |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO/DQ | +150 | +850 |
| Decision/Technical Decision | +105 | +650 |
| Draw | +2000 | +2000 |
Click here to see all round props
| Winning Group of Rounds | Alvarez | Golovkin |
|---|---|---|
| Rounds 1-3 | +1800 | +5500 |
| Rounds 4-6 | +800 | +3500 |
| Rounds 7-9 | +500 | +2500 |
| Rounds 10-12 | +550 | +2800 |
| To Win Fight in Round | Alvarez | Golovkin |
|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | +6500 | +10000 |
| Round 2 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Round 3 | +4000 | +10000 |
| Round 4 | +3000 | +10000 |
| Round 5 | +2400 | +8000 |
| Round 6 | +2000 | +8000 |
| Round 7 | +1600 | +6500 |
| Round 8 | +1400 | +6500 |
| Round 9 | +1400 | +6500 |
| Round 10 | +1400 | +6500 |
| Round 11 | +1600 | +6500 |
| Round 12 | +1800 | +8000 |
Alvarez Fight History
Alvarez is not stranger to being a big favorite, but as we saw in his fight against Bivol, that's not a guarantee that he'll walk over his opponent. It's notable, though, that Alvarez closed as a dog in his first two fights against Golovkin and is now a -500 favorite.
| Date | Opponent-Result | Closing Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5/7/22 | Dmitry Bivol | -420 |
| 11/6/21 | Caleb Plant | -800 |
| 5/8/21 | Billy Joe Saunders | -625 |
| 2/27/21 | Avni Yildirim | -3300 |
| 12/19/20 | Callum Smith | -600 |
Golovkin Fight History
GGG will likely be in unfamiliar territory. Among the fights tracked by Pro Boxing Odds, Golovkin hasn't been an underdog dating back to 2016. Typically and massive favorite in his own right, his two previous fights against Alvarez have been his closest based on the odds.
| Date | Opponent-Result | Closing Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 4/9/22 | Ryota Murata | -420 |
| 12/18/20 | Kamil Szeremeta | -2750 |
| 10/5/19 | Sergiy Derevyanchenko | -641 |
| 6/8/19 | Steve Rolls | -3100 |
| 9/15/18 | Canelo Alvarez | -210 |
Alvarez vs. Golovkin Card
- Jesse Rodriguez vs. Israel Gonzalez
- Ali Akhmedov vs. Gabriel Rosado
- Austin Williams vs. Kieron Conway
- Diego Pacheco vs. Enrique Collazo
