Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Bet for Cinco de Mayo Weekend (Saturday, May 4)

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia odds for Saturday, May 4.

Canelo Alvarez didn’t want to fight a fellow Mexican.

But Jaime Munguia “earned his spot.”

Seriously.

“Yes, I’ve said I don’t want to fight Mexican fighters,” Alvarez said leading up to his latest high-profile bout. “But someone respectful like Munguia, someone who has earned this fight, it’s something that I’m glad we were able to make happen. This is a great source of pride for me because it’s Mexico all over. I’m proud of Munguia to come all the way he has.”

So here we are. Canelo (60-2-2, 39 KOs) is defending his undisputed super middleweight championship on Saturday on Cinco De Mayo weekend in Las Vegas. Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) – a former super welterweight champion – is next in line and has the potential to be Alvarez’s toughest test in two years, since his loss to Dmitry Bivol in May 2022.

Here's my Alvarez vs. Munguia pick and prediction for Saturday night.

Canelo vs. Munguia Breakdown & Analysis

As is the case with many Canelo challengers now, Munguia has the physical advantages in this matchup.

Alvarez is just 5-foot-8 with a near 71-inch reach, which is actually good for his height.

Munguia is 6-feet tall with a 72-inch reach and is 27. Like Alvarez, he turned pro as a teenager and has been boxing professionally since 2013, but Alvarez – who turns 34 in July – has been boxing professionally since 2005.

Munguia has been plagued by inconsistency and a subpar resume relative to his talent and record, and this does profile as a now-or-never opportunity for him.

A point in his favor? He did beat the hell out of John Ryder and stopped him in the ninth round of their January 2024 bout, which came eight months after Alvarez beat him by decision in Mexico in a small ring.

This past June, Munguia hardly survived a do-or-die battle with one of the toughest super middleweight contenders alive in Sergiy Derevyanchenko, narrowly winning a unanimous decision 115-112 and 114-113 (twice), thanks to a clutch body-shot knockdown in Round 12. If not for the knockdown, we would’ve been headed toward a majority draw, assuming the 114-113 judges would’ve seen Munguia get that round otherwise.

Alvarez has shown signs of slowing down in recent fights in terms of finishing ability. There was a time when Manny Pacquiao just stopped knocking people out, and Alvarez hasn’t scored a stoppage win since November 2021, which was five fights ago.

Alvarez has never been dropped in 64 pro fights, and Munguia hasn’t either, despite his defensive deficiencies. Both have impressive chins and are expert body punchers.

The potential misnomer here is that because we see two Mexican fighters, we’ll get a war. That might be true, but Alvarez is the sharper defensive fighter who may opt to try and out-box Munguia – as he should, and as he has against other bigger, imposing fighters.

Canelo vs. Munguia Prediction & Pick

I think we’ll get action, but I think, more than anything, we'll get levels.

Alvarez won’t win forever. I keep saying this, but Munguia is not the guy I’d favor to knock him off at 168 pounds.

We’ve already seen that Alvarez isn’t the same against an elite light heavyweight by Bivol, and David Benavidez – who is moving to light heavyweight – wants Alvarez (and I think could beat him).

But Munguia hasn’t shown to be that.

He’s talented, he’s imposing, he’s powerful, he’s tough, and he’s flawed. Just too flawed to take rounds off Canelo consistency, save for age and or just getting caught.

It’s Alvarez by decision for me at -105 on ESPN BET or DraftKings. Backing Munguia feels like having to pick him to win by stoppage, and I don’t see him stopping Alvarez.

Enjoy the fight and don’t go broke.

The Pick: Canelo Alvarez by decision (-105 at ESPN BET or DraftKings)