Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
On Saturday in a Showtime pay-per-view main event, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs) defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against Jermell Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs).
As of fight day on Saturday, Canelo Alvarez is a -480 favorite (bet $480 to win $100) over fellow headliner and +330 underdog Jermell Charlo (bet $100 to win $330). That gives Alvarez an implied win probability of 82.8%.
Charlo enters as the reigning undisputed super welterweight champion, and he is moving up from 154 to 168 pounds to challenge the king of the division.
It was originally believed that Canelo would fight Jermell's twin Jermall, currently the WBC middleweight champion, who would've had one less weight class to jump, but that's not the case.
Alvarez is still, at least, arguably the most popular boxer in the world. And while he isn't fighting on Mexican Independence Day weekend, as he typically does, the Showtime PPV event (9 p.m. ET main card, 11 p.m. ET main event) is expected to be one of the highest-profile events of the year.
Alvarez vs. Charlo Analysis
Alvarez is coming off a unanimous decision win over John Ryder in May in Mexico.
The decision was a surprise – and in that +400 to +500 range pre-fight, though Alvarez did sweep one scorecard and won all but two rounds on two others.
Alvarez looked effective, but he couldn't put away Ryder. Even in what appeared to be a smaller ring. Even as the two traded punches in the pocket in various instances.
Ryder even found some late-round success, landing on Alvarez before the conclusion of the bout.
Alvarez did drop Ryder in Round 5 of the bout but struggled to put him away as many expected.
Charlo hasn't fought since May 2022, when he knocked out Brian Castano in Round 10, a rematch of their draw in July 2021.
Charlo has been far less active than Alvarez, which is worth noting.
#CaneloCharlo final face off🔥
Order now: https://t.co/hm8UTDaKgQpic.twitter.com/3CvEB2CH7E
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) September 29, 2023
Canelo has fought twice since Charlo last stepped into the ring, which was one week after another Canelo fight – his loss to Dmitry Bivol at light heavyweight.
Charlo last fought twice in one calendar year in 2019, and he has done so only once in each of the three years since. Canelo fought three times in 2021, twice in 2022 and this will be his second of 2023.
It's worth noting that Alvarez, while 33, turned pro in 2005 at just 15 and will be capping off 18 years as a pro boxer next month.
Charlo, also 33, is older by two months and has been a pro since 2007 after doing so at 17.
You have two guys closer to the end than the beginning and similar in age than I think people realize. The perception is, among casual fans, that Alvarez is older because he's been in the limelight for much longer. He's been a star since at least 2012 and a world champion before even that.
Charlo didn't win his first world title until 2016.
Record in world title bouts:
- Alvarez: 20-2-1, 11 KOs
- Charlo: 7-1-1, 6 KOs
Charlo has a shocking amount of knockouts in world title bouts. Not TKOs – knockouts. All six of his finishes in world title bouts are by knockout, not by TKO.
Of course, they were also at 154 pounds, where Canelo won his first world title in 2011 and where he hasn't fought since 2016.
Canelo will have most of the advantages heading into this fight regarding abilities, but Charlo is highly skilled in many of the same areas. There isn't a zone where Canelo is worlds better than Charlo. He's just better across the board. He's a better body puncher, a better defender, and he's a better counterpuncher. But Charlo is also skilled in all these areas.
Charlo does have a fairly distinct size advantage, not in weight but in terms of height and reach. Charlo is 6-feet tall to Canelo's 5-foot-8 stature. Charlo also has a 73-inch reach to Canelo's 70.5-inch reach.
Charlo typically fights two weight classes lighter, but it's worth wondering whether not having to cut to 154 will benefit him, even against Canelo.
Alvarez vs. Charlo Bets
I've had a fairly strong feeling in this fight since the announcement, and that's what I'm betting: It's Canelo by unanimous decision, which is +125 at DraftKings as of this writing on fight week.
I think we can see a knockdown – you can also bet Charlo to get knocked down at +150 odds on DraftKings – but I think Canelo wins this on the cards. I also like Canelo just by decision at -110, which means you're good with even a split or majority decision.
However, I think Canelo will build enough of a lead to earn the win from all three judges. Coming off a layoff, it's very difficult to get off to a good start, even against Canelo, who isn't always a fast starter.
I think Charlo is good enough to win rounds, and I don't think Canelo will just win forever – he lost to Bivol last year, though I would tell you Alvarez should not be fighting at light heavyweight – but I don't think I can get to betting an upset here.
Canelo is still too good, and for how much longer I'm not sure. But I don't think Charlo – moving up two weights and off a 16-month layoff – will topple Alvarez.
Enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
The bet: Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision (+125 at DraftKings)
