Demetrius Andrade vs. Liam Williams Odds
Demetrius Andrade (29-0-0, 18 KO) returns to the ring Saturday after a 14-month layoff to defend his WBO middleweight title against the mandatory 160-pound challenger in Liam Williams (23-2-1, 18 KO) at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Hollywood, Florida.
Despite the long layoff, Andrade is still the Ring Magazine's third-ranked middleweight and he hopes to build upon his dominant ninth-round knockout of Luke Keeler in January 2020 to create momentum for a future marquee matchups against Jermall Charlo, Canelo Alvarez, Gennady Golovkin, or Billy Joe Saunders.
Nevertheless, lack of suitable competition continues to plague Andrade's career and this fight is no different as oddsmakers have Andrade listed as a -400 favorite over Williams with an implied 80% probability of winning this fight.
Regardless of the pre-fight perception, fights are won in the ring and Williams has an edge in recent activity with a first-round stoppage of England’s Andrew Robinson in October. Can Andrade continue his dominance or can Williams capitalize on his inactivity?
Let's find out where the betting value lies.
Fight Analysis
You have to look towards Gennadiy Golovkin and Jermall Charlo to find middleweights who've been as dominant as Demetrius Andrade.
Since turning pro after representing the United States in the 2008 Olympics, Andrade is 29-0 and has held championships at middleweight and light middleweight. The 6-foot-1 southpaw has an awkward style that can be difficult to figure out. But the skills are evident.
There are some people who may see this fight against Williams as a cherry pick — the British power puncher lost back-to-back fights to Liam Smith who was previously knocked out by Canelo Alvarez in 2016.
Overall, this is a fight Andrade should win.
He's the better boxer, the bigger puncher and has the superior footwork, defense, jab and ring IQ. He also has the bigger reach at 73.5 inches compared to Williams at 70 inches, so I can see Andrade sitting outside and outboxing him from distance. From my view this feels like a step in the right direction for Andrade who has been criticized previously for his resume.
Williams has put together an impressive stretch at middleweight since losing to Smith in 2017. Willams has seven straight wins at middleweight, six of which were knockouts. With a world title on the line, you have to imagine he'll press the action in the biggest fight of his career.
Williams is a typical UK fighter, straight up and down with no special effects. He's a pressure fighter with decent power and body work but lacks foot and head movement. The challenge for Williams in this fight will be if he can get inside on Andrade and if he has an answer for his awkward style.
Andrade isn't unbeatable however and he has the tendency to let inferior fighters hang around could hurt him in this fight where Williams will likely be the aggressor pushing the pace.
Andrade didn't press the action against Maciej Sulęcki and Artur Akavov and although he stopped Luke Keeler, he hung around a lot longer than he should have. Andrade will likely try to play it safe but this is a fight where he could find himself in some trouble should he not show up for all 12 rounds.
Andrade vs. Williams Pick
There are many people who believe that Williams is one of the best fighters Andrade will have ever faced. Those same people believe that Williams' improvement since moving to middleweight makes him live here. I'm not in that camp.
However, I do believe Williams can make this a competitive fight. Andrade is still the superior fighter and his IQ, reach and awkward style should get him the win against the more basic Williams.
I expect Williams to win some rounds early on with Andrade gradually taking control on his way to a 12-round decision or late stoppage. William Hill has the best price on Andrade at -280 and I would play this up to -400.
I also like the over 10.5 rounds(-177) at DraftKings, but the stronger play is on Andrade's moneyline. I think he'll do what he has to do to get a big money fight against Canelo Alvarez or Jamall Charlo next.
The Pick: Andrade ML (-280) | Over 10.5 rounds (-177)
