Haney vs. Kambosos Odds
Despite the fact that no one really asked them to, Devin Haney (28-0, 15 KOs) and George Kambosos Jr. (20-1, 10 KOs) are doing it again.
After a very clear and not terribly difficult decision win for Haney in June, Kambosos invoked the rematch clause in the contract, and the two will square off again on Saturday (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET main card), and once again it will take place in Melbourne, in front of a friendly crowd for the Sydney native Kambosos.
Fight Analysis
The fight's location in Australia may be just about the only thing Kambosos has going for him in this rematch.
When they fought for the undisputed lightweight title at the start of the summer, Haney easily handled Kambosos to win on the scorecards.
Just four months later, is there really any reason to think Kambosos has changed (or Haney has diminished) enough to result in a different outcome?
Oddsmakers sure don’t seem to think so, with Kambosos going from a mild +125 underdog in the first fight up to a +700 'dog in this rematch.
The key factors in this pairing the first time were speed and range. Haney’s clear advantages in the former department made it imperative that Kambosos control the latter. If you’re going to stand on the outside against a smart, careful puncher who also has the faster hands, chances are you’re going to have a bad night.
And yet, that’s exactly what Kambosos did, and continued to do, even when it should have been obvious that he was going to lose that style of fight.
Of course, it’s easy to tell someone they should close that distance and brawl it out in close when it’s not your face that’s going to get swatted on the way in. But if Kambosos wants the outcome to be any different in this rematch, he’s going to have to change something, and I don’t see him suddenly becoming the faster fighter in just four months’ time.
Back in June he showed flashes of one-punch power that, if only it had come in more volume and earlier on in the fight, could potentially make the difference. But Haney isn’t the type to take needless risks and leave himself open, so Kambosos is probably going to have to create those opportunities for himself.
If you’re not quick enough to do that by slipping punches, the other option is to do it by eating a few. And there are plenty of fighters who tell themselves they’re willing to do that right up until the leather starts flying.
Haney vs. Kambosos Pick
Oddsmakers obviously feel like they saw everything they needed to see in that first fight. Kambosos was the hometown favorite, the sole reason fans flocked to Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, and maybe his personal charisma even convinced people that Haney was, as Kambosos claimed, a paper champ who didn’t deserve his lightweight title.
But after seeing how easily Haney controlled that June bout, the defending champ has gone from a slight favorite over Kambosos to a massive 12-1 favorite at DraftKings. He's also gone from Marvel Stadium to the comparatively intimate Rod Laver Arena for this fight, suggesting a dropoff in fan interest.
Beyond the enduring hope that is the puncher’s chance, there’s no great reason to think Kambosos can pull off the upset here. If he does, it’ll probably have to come via one big punch that hurts Haney and opens him up for the finish.
If you can talk yourself into that, then the +1600 line on Kambosos via KO, TKO, or DQ might be worth very small action.
But the best bet is to take the -190 line on Haney to win on points (unanimous, split or majority decision), or the -140 line on Haney to win specifically via unanimous decision – both at BetMGM.
Haney's quickness and his ability to keep the fight at the range he wants should be good enough to control the fight and win rounds, but I don’t see him putting himself in any unnecessary danger trying to finish a resilient Kambosos.
The Pick: Haney on points (-190 at BetMGM) or Haney via unanimous decision (-140 at BetMGM)
