Devin Haney vs. Regis Prograis Odds
Let's take a look at the Devin Haney vs. Regis Prograis odds and my breakdown and betting pick for Saturday's boxing main event (8 p.m. ET, DAZN).
Some are calling Haney vs. Prograis a Fight of the Year candidate.
To me, that term is overused – but tonight's fight is a great one on paper. I just have reservations regarding whether or not this will be great in the ring, which we'll get into.
Haney (30-0, 15 KOs) is the undisputed lightweight champion of the world, moving up to super lightweight and fighting WBC champion Prograis (29-1, 24 KOs), who is arguably the best at 140 pounds – if not second after Teofimo Lopez – and has been a mainstay in the division through much of his 11-year career.
Haney controversially outpointed Vasiliy Lomachenko in May, and Prograis escaped a challenge from Danielito Zorrilla one month later, surrounded by similar disputes.
I think Haney vs. Prograis can be a great fight, but I'm skeptical that it will. Let's unpack tonight's featured boxing attraction.
Haney vs. Prograis Analysis and Breakdown
Haney vs. Prograis is yet another boxer vs. puncher bout.
The orthodox Haney, who is 5-foot-8 with a 71-inch reach, is undoubtedly the boxer. He's a skilled counter-puncher who prioritizes defense and is often criticized for not taking many in-ring chances, as well as his lack of punching power.
Heavily influenced by Floyd Mayweather, Haney takes on Money May's fighting style, much to the non-delight of fans who prefer action.
Prograis, same height but just a 67-inch reach, is an old-school puncher who is one of the best finishers in boxing, idolizes Roberto Duran, and has one of the highest knockout percentages in the weight class. You could argue that he's deserving of an undefeated record but narrowly dropped the 2019 World Boxing Super Series final to Josh Taylor on enemy territory, losing a controversial majority decision.
The New Orleans native had trouble cutting off the ring against the aforementioned Zorrilla, who isn't as skilled as Haney, and nearly stole the WBC title in Louisiana earlier this year. His scorecards read 118-109, 117-110 and 113-114, though it felt much closer.
Haney walked away from the Lomachenko bout with two 115-113 cards in his favor, and a larger 116-112 one, though many felt Lomachenko was more deserving.
So we have two guys coming off unspectacular victories and fighting each other in a high-profile bout that will abstain from being knocked this week.
How Haney vs. Prograis Can Flop
People will suggest that Haney has to fight Prograis – as in, not keeping his distance and counter-punching from the outside, but actually fight him.
But Prograis struggled with luring Zorrilla, who is not as skilled or as technically sound as Haney, into a fight several months ago.
Prograis hasn't fought a ton of counterpunchers since getting to world level; even so, Haney is the best guy he's fought, and that includes Taylor.
If Prograis can't force Haney to fight on the inside, or fight at all, then this could be a dud in which Haney is able to keep his distance and try beating the southpaw from range as Prograis follows him around and doesn't create the angles to force fireworks.
This would benefit Haney, of course, and is the most probable outcome, according to oddsmakers.
How Haney vs. Prograis Can Deliver
Basically, it's the opposite of what I just said, and it's not merely Prograis landing on Haney with a shot – and any punch could change a fight. But this bout can deliver, or Prograis doesn't follow Haney around as he did with the rangy Zorrilla but studies that tape and his teams outline methods for him to cut off the ring effectively and smartly pressure Haney.
Prograis is skilled enough and smart enough to pressure Haney tactically, and he can be herky-jerky enough to use feints and create the pressure he needs.
This is harder to invoke than it may seem just saying it out loud, but it can be done.
If the fight is going to live up to the hype, Prograis has to take on the role of being a bully.
Haney vs. Prograis Pick
Unfortunately, I think the bout will be closer to the former than the latter.
I just don't expect Haney to fight a ton, and I'm not anticipating Prograis forcing the action effectively enough to win most of the rounds.
If Haney wins, I think it will be by decision, because of everything I outlined and along with the fact that he has won each of his last seven fights by decision. His last knockout came against Zaur Abdullaev more than four years ago, and I strongly doubt he's going to stop Prograis, who has never been dropped.
Haney by KO/TKO is +750, and that's too short.
If Prograis wins, I think it almost has to be by knockout. Punchers don't beat boxers on the cards often if the skill level is equal or – of course – if the boxer is more skilled. But Haney has been rocked before, famously by Jorge Linares in May of 2021, and he got tagged by Lomachenko several times during their encounter.
If you think Prograis is going to win the bout, betting him on the moneyline is fine, but you should just wager on him scoring the KO/TKO, which I'm seeing at +630. It's shorter than Haney's KO/TKO odds for a reason. I'd also suggest Prograis to stop him late as a sprinkle, between rounds 7-12 at +1100 on DraftKings or between rounds 9-12 at +1600 on FanDuel.
But I'm picking Haney by decision, which is -225 on DraftKings, as a parlay leg this weekend. The value and potential payout aren't great, but it's the most likely outcome, so parlay away on a solid sports weekend.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
