OK, we got the serious Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford fight preview out of the way (which you should absolutely dissect with all your heart), but now let's have some fun before Saturday's big boxing blockbuster with Spence vs Crawford prop bets.
Long-shot prop betting will be an active market on Saturday night for the Spence vs. Crawford – the Fight of the Year (8 p.m. ET, Showtime PPV).
In fact, Spence (28-0, 22 KOs) vs. Crawford (39-0, 30 KOs) is the biggest boxing match in arguably the last five years – maybe even eight years if you go back to Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
I would advise you to be responsible and bet modestly with these long-shot Spence vs Crawford bets for Saturday's PPV event.
But here are some Spencer vs Crawford props I'd monitor and how I'd bet them.
(And by long shots, in this instance, we'll be looking at plays with odds of +500 or longer.)
Spence vs Crawford Prop Bets
Knockdown Props
These are long shots that won't favor either man, in particular, as we look further down the books for some added value.
FanDuel typically has great boxing specials, so I'll predominantly be leaning on that sportsbook unless otherwise noted for these particular bets.
A Knockdown in any of Rounds 1-6 (+700): I don't mind a sprinkle on this, even though I said on The Action Network Podcast (see below) this week that I'd stay away from most knockdown props because there probably aren't many viable in this fight, in which I don't think anyone is getting knocked out.
FanDuel has this at +700 and DraftKings at +380. As for the difference, I couldn't tell you why.
But look, s— happens. Flash knockdowns are a thing, and both guys have the requisite power to floor the other.
Spence is one of the most powerful welterweights of his era, and Crawford is 9-0 with 9 KOs in this weight class. Plus, you get six rounds to do it.
If you play it, play it small.
A new name gets etched in boxing lore TOMORROW night🔥
Order #SpenceCrawford: https://t.co/32LwrbgAKDpic.twitter.com/ItAw7l4EzD
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) July 28, 2023
For this same reason, I wouldn't mind a tinier sprinkle on A Knockdown in any Rounds Between 1-3 (+2700), either. It's half the rounds and nearly quadruple value.
The problem here is that Crawford is a famously slow, well, we'll say "methodical" starter. And Spence is coming off a 15-month layoff with the expectation of matching that pace instead of accelerating full force.
You'd be betting on a flash knockdown here, or that one just catches the other early, and both have scored early knockdowns in their careers.
Crawford's last knockdown scored this early was against Amir Khan four years ago, and Spence's was against Carlos Ocampo the year before that – both in Round 1.
But, again, it's +2700. I wouldn't bet real money on it, just a tiny sprinkle, if you're looking for some long-shot action.
And, admittedly, I don't love either to happen, so these are just fun sweats for a big fight. But hey, you never know in this sport.
Decision Props
While I have Crawford winning this fight, I wouldn't be too shocked if he didn't – because Spence is also awesome – so you're getting bets for both fighters here.
Specifically, I'm looking at exact-method-of-victory props on FanDuel, which has an expansive betting menu for Spence vs. Crawford tonight.
If you think Crawford is going to win, look at him by majority decision and Crawford by split decision. The exact same goes for those of you who think Spence will win: Look at majority and split options.
Why? Because we're expecting this fight to be close, and close fights aren't always well-judged, even at high-profile levels.
Crawford by split is +750 and by majority is +1600. Spence by split is +900 and by majority is +1800. If you're backing either by decision, consider either or both.
My personal favorite of the bunch is Crawford by majority decision (+1600).
Pick: Crawford by Majority Decision (+1600) |
I love this one because, in the event that Crawford appears on his way to a clear 117-111 or 116-112 victory, all you need is one rogue judge to see it 114-114 even, which could absolutely happen with names of this caliber.
It's happened in so many instances, including famously in 2013 when Floyd Mayweather clearly schooled Canelo Alvarez, and one judge – CJ Ross – scored the bout 114-114.
Of course, the bet doesn't have to be conspiracy-laced. You could also just think, "Hey, the fight will be close enough for someone to rationally see it as a draw," which also happens.
I ultimately expect my scorecard to read 115-113 or 116-112 Crawford by the end of the night. And if the fight plays out this way, it'll be close enough to warrant a bet or two on a majority and/or split decision. I might sprinkle on both given the long-shot odds.
If you're betting on Spence via points, I would encourage the same.
The Realistic, Potential Conspiracy Long-Shot Prop
A Spence vs Crawford draw has +1600 odds.
This number is on FanDuel, and it's beautiful because this Spence vs Crawford outcome could actually happen.
The reason we're so drawn to this fight is because it's a true 50-50 fight, which opened at -113 both ways with much of the world split on who would win.
In a fight this close on paper, you almost always have a reason to play the draw. Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin 1 was a draw, and so was the first Deontay Wilder vs. Tyson Fury bout.
Spence Jr. vs. Crawford has a rematch clause. My suggestion? Play the draw – lightly – but play it. Half unit to a unit tops, depending on your betting spread.
As always, enjoy the fight, and don't go broke!
Pick: Spence vs. Crawford Ends via Draw (+1600) |
