Brandon Figueroa vs. Mark Magsayo Odds
We’re back to normal this week – normal boxing.
For the die-hards, you can rejoice, and for the casuals who really enjoyed Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury, please stay into the sport. It keeps the rest of us employed. Plus, when it’s good, there’s nothing better!
Picking Paul to win by KO drops me to 5-3 on exact bets since getting here in December, so we’ll look to get right Saturday.
Brandon Figueroa (23-1-1, 18 KOs) will face Mark Magsayo (24-1, 16 KOs) for the WBC interim featherweight title this Saturday night on Showtime (9 p.m. ET), which put forth a banger last week with Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce.
(I had Matias by KO in Rounds 1-6, and he scored it in 5 at +210, for what it’s worth.)
Figueroa vs. Magsayo is a tactically captivating bout that will be one of the better fights in this first quarter, continuing a slew of solid boxing put forth by Showtime to begin 2023.
Let’s break it down.
Fight Analysis
Figueroa was a super bantamweight world champion who unified the WBA and WBC titles after knocking out then-undefeated Luis Nery in May 2021. But in his subsequent fight, a unification with WBO champion Stephen Fulton, he suffered a majority decision loss – his first defeat – in November of that year.
Figueroa returned to knock out contender Carlos Castro last July, and this will be his first taste of action since.
Magsayo shockingly outpointed former WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. in January 2022, ending a title reign that lasted nearly seven years. However, he lost a split decision against Rey Vargas in July, the first defense of his title, despite recording a ninth-round knockdown.
Neither fighter has ever been stopped – Figueroa claims he’s never been dropped, even in sparring – but Magsayo was recently dropped against Julio Ceja in their August 2021 battle, but rose up to knock out Ceja in Round 10.
Ceja is actually the prominent mutual opponent between the two, and he fought Figueroa to his only draw in November 2019 in a bout for the WBA super bantamweight title, but Ceja missed weight, so the title was at stake for Figueroa only.
Both guys are going to trade in a fight that may largely be contested in the pocket. Both guys also have very good chins, so it has the potential to be a war for all 12 rounds.
Figueroa will bring forth an array of body punches from inside and out, and he can utilize a two-inch height and four-plus-inch reach advantage when he chooses. Magsayo is an unconventional fighter whose timing, particularly against Russell Jr., was impressive as he mixed in lead right hooks and counter left hands in the process, taking advantage of his foe’s injured shoulder.
Both fighters will be susceptible to counterpunching, and whoever implements a more tactical approach will likely win.
Figueroa vs. Magsayo Pick
Figueroa is a -300 or more moneyline favorite at a lot of books. Magsayo is absolutely a live underdog, whose odds you’ll find hovering around +250.
Enticing as he odds are, though, I’ve been leaning Figueroa, and more specifically, Figueroa by decision/on points, which is +145 at FanDuel as of this writing.
Although I think we’ll see heavy exchanges, perhaps even a knockdown or two, this feels like it will go until the end.
Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to eat big shots from active punchers with knockout histories, though I’ll acknowledge that Figueroa, in particular, via knockout at +180 on FanDuel is tantalizing.
If Figueroa does record a stoppage, I’d be stunned if it’s early. Here’s where we fire up my favorite thing in boxing wagers: Group Round Betting.
On FanDuel, Figueroa is +290 to finish Magsayo between rounds 7-12. If you think he gets the stoppage, that’d be the way to go, in my opinion. Narrowing it down to rounds 9-12 for extra juice (+500) is also within reason.
If you believe in Magsayo and want to look behind the favorable moneyline, he’s been listed between +500 and +600 to win by KO or on points in most books I’ve seen. I’d lean decision; the only top-flight challenger he KOd was Ceja, who had been knocked out three times beforehand.
Anything can happen in boxing, but I'm not sure I see Figueroa getting knocked out.
Enjoy the fight, and don’t go broke!
Pick: Brandon Figueroa via Points or Decision (+145) |
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