Gervonta Davis vs. Mario Barrios Odds
This Saturday, two-division world champion Gervonta "Tank" Davis (24-0, 23 KOs) returns to the ring to take on undefeated WBA (regular) champion Mario Barrios (26-0, 17 KOs) for the WBA super lightweight title. Davis is coming off an incredible sixth-round knockout of Leo Santa Cruz back on October 31, 2020 in a junior lightweight/lightweight title bout.
While Davis has tremendous punching power and a knockout percentage of 95.8% (100% in world title fights), things could be different this time as Davis follows in the footsteps of Hall of Fame fighters like Sugar Ray Leonard, Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao to boxing greatness, moving up two weight classes to fight Barrios at 140 for his WBA super lightweight title, which would be his third divisional belt.
At 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach, Barrios has all the physical advantages in this fight as a natural 140 pounder. He's no slouch, either, ranking seventh on Ring Magazine's list of junior welterweights. Barrios won the vacant WBA junior welterweight title in a September 2019 bout against Batyr Akhmedov, dropping him twice on his way to a unanimous decision, and he successfully defended that title against Ryan Karl in 2020, winning by the way of a sixth-round TKO.
Nevertheless, this is an intriguing matchup between two 26-year-old world champions. Davis has been unbeatable at 130 and 135, but will his power translate to junior welterweight, or will the physical advantages of Barrios be too much to overcome?
Fight Analysis
Davis is taking a risk by stepping into a new weight class, but based on the measured approach for matchmaking by Mayweather Promotions and Al Haymon, it's tough to imagine him getting in the ring against a guy whom they felt his power wouldn't translate. What does it say that Davis doesn't have fights against any of the guys in 130-135 in Ryan Garcia, Teófimo López, Vasiliy Lomachenko or Devin Haney, but he's jumping two weight classes to fight Barrios? From my view, it speaks volumes.
Barrios has a huge height and reach advantage and his ability to control the fight with the jab will be key, however so did Santa Cruz and Davis was able to make quick work of him. Barrios doesn't particularly fight big, keeps his chin up and likes to trade, which leaves the door open for a heavy puncher like Davis.
Will Barrios have the discipline to avoid trading with Davis and instead use his natural height and reach advantages? His trainer, Virgil Hunter, spoke about the improvement of Barrios' jab and how keeping his lead hand up has allowed him to control the distance in an interview with Caryn A. Tate on Premier Boxing Champions. Still, I'm not seeing him maintain it throughout the course of a the fight as it's not in Barrios' nature to use his lengthy frame to outbox opponents.
Barrios' fight against Akhmedov does provide us with a preview of some of what we could expect here. Akhmedov is short southpaw similar to Davis and while he doesn't hit as hard, I do believe that fight provided us with insight about how Davis can come forward and mount an offense. While Barrios did drop Akhmedov twice, there were moments in which he was hurt, so I think we could see something similar here. Against the more powerful and explosive Davis, Barrios could find himself in trouble.
Although there are questions about Davis' power at 140, he is is the more skilled and battle-tested fighter and should be able close the distance and mount a consistent offense . He has a history of being a shorter fighter so I'm expecting Davis to handle it well.
Davis typically stands at 160 but he's not a big 135 pounder, he simply just blows up between fights. I'm not sure if I'd like to see Davis at 140 full time given his frame. I'm seeing Davis move to 140 as being similar to Mikey Garcia's move to welterweight in the he's good enough to beat B-level guys but not good enough to beat the best in division. From my view, Barrios isn't an A-level fighter.
Davis vs. Barrios Pick
You always have to tread lightly when backing a fighter who's moving up multiple weight classes, but when it comes to a group as calculating as Mayweather Promotions, it's tough to imagine Davis doing so unless they witnessed something of which they could take advantage.
I believe Davis will win, but there are plenty of unanswered questions about his power at 140, and I think it will take him some time to get inside as Barrios is the bigger fighter. When Davis moved up to 135, he struggled with Yuriorkis Gamboa before stopping him in Round 12, and I think we could see something similar here. I'll take the over 8.5 rounds.
The Pick: Over 8.5 rounds (-115) at DraftKings
