Davis vs. Romero Odds
The war of words between Gervonta “Tank” Davis and Rolando “Rolly” Romero will finally come to a head as they meet this Saturday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
This highly anticipated bout has been months in the making as it was originally scheduled to take place on Dec. 5 before Romero was pulled from the bout due to sexual assault allegations. Romero was replaced with Issac Cruz who Davis boxed to a 12-round decision, going the distance for the first time in his career.
With Romeo cleared of all allegations, Davis (26-0, 24 KOs) will make a mandatory defense of his WBA lightweight title against Romero (14-0, 12 KOs) in what could shape up as one of the most exciting fights of the year. With an over/under of 6.5 rounds, oddsmakers aren’t expecting a long fight between two of the hardest punchers in the lightweight division.
Despite claims from Romero that he’s going to stop Davis in the first round, oddsmakers also aren’t giving him much of a chance, making him +550 underdog with Davis priced as a -900 favorite.
So where’s the betting value on tonight’s WBC lightweight championship bout?
Let’s analyze both sides and find out!
Fight Analysis
Davis is arguably one of the hardest punchers in the division, stopping 24 out of his 26 opponents while Romero is no slouch either, knocking out 12 out of his 14 opponents in his young career only going past the seventh round once in a controversial 12-round decision against Jackson Marinez in 2020.
While both fighters have knockout power, Davis is the more experienced and seasoned fighter in this matchup. Although he hasn’t fought the top guys at 135 — Ryan Garcia, Teófimo López, Vasiliy Lomachenko, Devin Haney — he does have wins over Léo Santa Cruz, José Pedraza, Yuriorkis Gamboa, Mario Barrios and Isaac Cruz, so he’s been in the ring with better competition.
Davis boxed his way to an unanimous decision against Cruz, ending a run of 16-consecutive stoppages. Many may view that fight as proof that Davis is not one of the top fighters in the lightweight division, however he was still able to get the win despite suffering a hand injury midway through the fight.
Davis is a stocky 5-foot-5 southpaw with tremendous power and speed, who fights with a style very reminiscent of Mike Tyson. He’s also a highly skilled boxer with the ability to fight inside, outside and counter punch while varying his attack to the head and body.
According to Compubox, Davis is second among all fighters in Power Punch Connect Percentage (47.7%). He’s also fifth among all active fighters in Connect Percentage (32.3%) and eighth among all active fighters in Plus/Minus (+13.1), which subtracts the opponent's connect percentage from a fighter’s connect percentage.
Romero isn’t in the same class skill wise given his absence on these lists. At 5-foot-8 with 68-inch reach, Romero has the height and reach advantage, but is lacking experience. This will be just his 15th professional fight and he was arguably outboxed by Marinez in 2020, so the step up is massive.
While Romero has mentioned the tendency for Davis to leave himself open to be hit, the Compubox numbers say otherwise. In fact, Romero has been known to leave crater-sized openings, so we can expect Davis to land at will. The left hook Davis landed to stop Santa Cruz, his straight left hand, will be there for him all night in this fight.
Despite his shortcomings, Romero is still live here as he has an awkward style that keeps fighters off balance, a devastating left hook — one of the best in the sport — and punching power that can end the night at any moment. He has a puncher's chance, but given his lack of experience and skill, it’s tough to go much further than that.
Davis vs. Romero Pick
The war of words has sold me on wanting to see this fight, but I’m not sold is Romero being in the same class as Davis. With the rumors of Davis leaving Mayweather Promotions after this fight I can understand why Mayweather promotions would want to see him fight (and potentially lose) to a fighter in house. What I can’t understand is putting one of their rising fighters with just 14 professional fights in there with one of the hardest hitters and best fighters in the lightweight division.
There’s a reason oddsmakers opened Davis as a heavy favorite in this fight. There’s an extreme gap in skill and experience and Romero’s wild and awkward style should leave him open for Davis to close the show. I like Davis to win by KO and FanDuel currently has the best line at -300.
The Pick: Davis Wins by KO/TKO (-300)
