Now this is the fun preview.
The real Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia preview was done earlier this week.
As we know, Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs) is boxing's fight of the year so far, making this an atypical bout in terms of betting opportunities.
Many sportsbooks have greatly expanded their betting menus ahead of this bout. As a result, you can get tons of action worth monitoring, including the option for long-shot bets of anywhere from, say, +400 (as we do on MMA Prop Squad weekly) way up to +50000 if you look diligently enough.
Here, we're going to focus on three long shots that might be worth a light sprinkle at the chance of a significant return on investment during fight night (8 p.m. ET, Showtime PPV). Because who isn't looking for a little action on boxing's biggest night of 2023?
Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia Predictions
Garcia to win & Round 9 to start (+550 at FanDuel)
The Case: As I mentioned in my Davis vs. Garcia preview, I don't think Garcia ultimately gets the win on Saturday night. However, I'm not – like every "Tank" stan I've been in contact with – outright dismissing Garcia's chances. Garcia is and will be the toughest challenge for Davis in his career. He also is trained by Joe Goosen, who paired up with Garcia following his win over Luka Campbell, in which he was knocked down in January 2021.
If Garcia is going to win this fight at all, I don't think it would come early – and it may not even be a knockout. Davis has never been dropped in his pro career, though, and just about everyone does at some point. But in order to win this fight, Garcia will have to be smart, using his height and reach advantages, jabbing and moving throughout the course of the fight, and establishing a straight right hand – typically the effective punch you want as an orthodox fighter clashing with a southpaw – and his left hook, his best punch.
It's going to take time, and while Garcia could theoretically catch Davis early, Davis' underrated defense and ring IQ – plus the fact that he's generally a slow starter – can't be overlooked. If Garcia wins, I think it'll be late. He has to prove he could hold up defensively, be as close to mistake-free as possible, and take Davis' best shots when unable to evade them – none of which are a given, which is why this bet has +550 odds.
Pick: Garcia to win & Round 9 to start (+550) |
Garcia to win by decision (+800 at DraftKings)
The Case: This is similar to the one I just broke down – except you're not accounting for a knockout at all, and you'd also need Garcia to win so clearly that there isn't any suspect judging and A-side-favoring BS in the fight.
So, it wouldn't simply be Garcia winning rounds. It's also the judges seeing it in his favor, which isn't a given either. That said, if Garcia wins, going to distance could favor him, again, if he's able to stand his ground when Davis is on the offensive. He has to use his physical advantages to keep "Tank" distant and take advantage of some early rounds – slower rounds you could see in a standard Davis fight.
He took a while to get going against Hector Garcia in January, as he did against Rolly Romero in May, as he did against Isaac Cruz in late 2021, and as he did against Leo Santa Cruz in late 2020. The onslaught following those feel-out rounds is where Garcia will be most tested. If he survives that, he's in the fight.
Davis to win in Round 8 & Garcia to be knocked down in first minute of Round 8 (+4000 at FanDuel)
The Case: My co-host on The Mandatory, Shantelle Chand, and I both think Gervonta Davis is ultimately going to get the stoppage late. My pick I gave out on Action Network earlier this week was a Davis KO/TKO in Rounds 7-12 (+220), and hers was Davis by TKO (exact method), citing that Davis would cause Garcia to deteriorate slowly throughout the fight.
In keeping with that line of thinking – and accounting for Vegas setting the over/under for rounds at 7.5 – this feels like it could be the sweet spot. And TKOs are often preceded by a knockdown or two earlier in the round. Davis typically turns it up after the first few rounds, and he would be in full Tank mode prior to Round 8.
You're betting here that, if he closes in on Garcia before Round 8, all he has to do here is finish him off. You can see it, too. He wobbles Garcia toward the end of Round 7. Garcia comes out of the corner still on shaky legs, and Davis pounces early, gets your knockdown within the first 60 seconds, and proceeds to finish the job within the remaining two minutes.
Sure, maybe it doesn't happen. But look at those +4000 odds – and it might be hard not to throw a buck or two on that tempting long shot.
Pick: Davis in Round 8 & Garcia knocked down in first minute of Round 8 (+4000) |
