Gervonta "Tank" Davis vs. Hector Luis Garcia Odds
Happy new year, fight fans. The opening bell of 2023 has the legitimate makings to be a classic trap fight.
We’ll get to the odds and prediction in a bit, but first, you must know why an immense level of pressure weighs on boxing megastar Gervonta “Tank” Davis (27-0, 25 KOs) ahead of his Saturday bout against the highly skilled Hector Luis Garcia (16-0, 10 KOs).
Already scheduled is an April 15 superfight between Davis and fellow boxing prodigy Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs), a promotionally challenging fight to make that still requires some level of finalizing. But it’s expected no less.
Why promotionally challenging? Ryan Garcia is signed to Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions and fights on the DAZN platform. Davis had been affiliated with Floyd Mayweather Promotions (and says he isn’t any longer) but has been fighting on Premier Boxing Champions cards, most of which have resulted in Showtime appearances.
Fights featuring premiere talents from separate networks are infrequent; why do you think Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao took five years to happen?
As we’ll get to, Davis is a heavy favorite in this fight, but Hector Luis Garcia is much better than even most diehard boxing fans realized around this time last year. He was mostly unknown until receiving the call to fill in last February for a fight between true blue-chip prospect Chris Colbert and WBA super featherweight champion Roger Gutierrez, postponed after the latter tested positive for COVID-19 two weeks before the scheduled Feb 26. date.
Enter Garcia, a then recently turned 30-year-old unknown out of the Dominican Republic, undefeated with three no-contests in his career, who stepped in on about two weeks’ notice to – in theory – provide Colbert the showcase Showtime had been looking for.
Garcia not only made him look stupid, but he dominated the once-can’t-miss prospect over 12 rounds, knocking him down for the first time in his career, winning a wide unanimous decision, and recording the 2022 PBC Upset of the Year.
Garcia then fought Gutierrez for the same aforementioned WBA title and easily outpointed the titlist by decision in August, becoming a world champion for the first time in his career.
So yeah, this is conceptually a stay-busy fight for Davis, who hasn’t competed since knocking out Rolando Romero in February. But this is far from a stay-busy fight in actuality.
Fight Analysis
Davis vs. Garcia is the rare southpaw vs. southpaw matchup.
Garcia will be moving up from 130 pounds to 135 and challenging for Davis’ WBA lightweight crown while already having a 2.5-inch-height advantage and a 1.5-inch-reach advantage over the smaller champion.
However, Davis is such a star because of his power.
Only two fighters have ever gone to distance against Davis, including current lightweight championship contender Isaac Cruz in a high-profile bout at Staples Center in December 2021. Davis’ resume includes knockout wins over former world champions Mario Barrios, Leo Santa Cruz, Yuriorkis Gamboa, Jose Pedraza and Jesus Cuellar.
He’s not just devastatingly powerful but is frighteningly accurate. Like few others in combat sports, he can alter a fight with a single shot and spark the beginning of the end like none of his peers in his weight class.
Additionally, Davis’ pure boxing ability is very much overshadowed by his strength. He’s showcased an ability to slip punches and counter with precise and mind-numbing uppercuts, weave his way out of trouble, reset his stance, and not rush his attack irresponsibly.
Garcia’s best shot at an upset is using the slick counter-punching he put forth to neutralize both Colbert and Gutierrez to smartly create openings to quickly and surgically volume punch inside before bouncing back out and switching angles. He is probably skillful and lengthy enough to give Davis some trouble – but is his chin equipped to survive Davis for 12 rounds? Remember, Garcia is moving up in weight – and don’t get it twisted, he’s an elite boxer – I’m just not sure he’s Davis.
Davis vs. Garcia Picks (and Other Bets to Consider)
While Garcia displayed a chin (and perhaps a bit too much courage) late in the fight against Gutierrez, saying Davis is different would not only be a poor parody of a Twitter joke, but it undersells the level of disparity between the latter two. I’d typically bet that a Garcia type could find a way to survive Davis, but almost no one does.
Cruz possibly wouldn’t have if Davis didn’t injure his dominant hand supposedly before the bout.
On the DraftKings moneyline, Davis is a -1600 favorite while Garcia is a +800 underdog – and -1450 and +770, respectively, on FanDuel. So, as I’ll tell y’all time and again, look at method-of-victory or group-round betting if you think someone is going to win by knockout.
Garcia is wise, but I have a feeling he’ll try to exchange with Davis more than he should and, therefore, will get caught for the knockout. Davis by knockout by itself is between -350 and -400 in most places, so we’re going to lock in Davis to win by stoppage from rounds 7-12, which is +115 on DraftKings and -105 on FanDuel.
It should be similar across the board. I believe Garcia will hang with Davis, and even impress at times, but will be stopped late.
Other wagers to consider for more action, because why only place one bet: Davis to win by KO between other group rounds (like 9-12) for more juice is also appealing. Books seem to think it’ll lean between 7-9 or 5-8, but I think Garcia can last a bit longer if he boxes more and exchanges less. Davis by a straight KO is also a nice parlay leg.
Final fight note: Jaron Ennis (29-0, 27 KOs), who is fighting Karen Chukhadzhian (21-0, 11 KOs) for the IBF interim welterweight title in the co-feature, should absolutely win by knockout. He has almost the exact record as Davis, is the top American prospect in the sport, and is a name you’ll hear a lot this year as he tries to book mega fights with Errol Spence and or Terence Crawford following an expected win.
Ennis is -250 on FanDuel and -300 on DraftKings to win in rounds 1-6. He’s literally never seen the seventh round in his career. Take the bet.
In fact, a parlay of Davis winning in rounds 7-12, Ennis in Rounds 1-6, and the Georgia moneyline in the College Football National Championship will get you around +250 odds or so.
Good luck, and don’t go broke!
The Pick: Gervonta Davis to Win In 7-12 Rounds (+115 in DraftKings)
