Munguia vs Ryder Odds and Pick
Here's everything you need to know about Jaime Munguia vs. John Ryder — including our Munguia vs. Ryder pick.
Munguia should be a star, but he's not yet.
He has an incredibly captivating warrior style of boxing, he's undefeated more than 40 fights into his career, he has a high knockout percentage, and he's just 27 years old.
But Munguia (42-0, 33 KOs) has a wholly uninteresting resume, and he is in another fight as a decent-sized favorite when he meets John Ryder (32-6, 18 KOs), a feisty super middleweight contender, on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET, DAZN). But we last saw Munguia lose to Canelo Alvarez in May.
So while Munguia vs. Ryder isn't an easy fight to predict – nor is it an easy one to bet – we all know what has to happen here. But for Munguia, what happens next is arguably more important – because we've been waiting for him to become a star for years, and he just isn't.
Maybe we'll get a reminder this weekend, but this challenge is tougher than it appears.
Let's look at the Munguia vs Ryder odds and make a pick for Saturday's DAZN main event (8 p.m. ET).
Munguia vs. Ryder Analysis
Munguia was last seen in an all-out war with Sergiy Derevyanchenko in June, one that may have been a draw or he even lost if not for a 12th-round knockdown to dramatically punctuate the bout.
Munguia won 114-113 on two cards and 115-112 on another, and the knockdown round means two judges had Munguia down 105-104 going into Round 12.
The 115-112 signals he was leading 105-104 on the third card.
Derevyanchenko is Munguia's closest call yet, and he's someone who came into the bout at 14-4 with credible losses to Gennady Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Jermall Charlo and Carlos Adames – all world champions at middleweight, all were decisions, and only Charlo's had zero cards shorter than 116-112 in the other direction.
Ryder could give Munguia a similar push.
Munguia actually made his debut at super lightweight in 2013 as a 16-year-old but made the jump to super welterweight over time, and he won his first world title over Sadam Ali in May 2018 by a one-sided fourth-round TKO. Ali had retired Miguel Cotto five months earlier.
Munguia defended the title successfully five times against generally uninteresting competition save for a unanimous decision win over Liam Smith in July 2018.
He also had a scare against Dennis Hogan in Mexico less than a year later, winning a favorable majority decision that many thought should've gone the other way.
Ryder was dropped in his bout with Canelo, but he surprised many by going to distance despite being dropped in Round 5.
And he even ended the bout strong, winning two rounds toward the end, including the last as it appeared Canelo was low on steam.
Canelo is the best at 168 pounds, but this is Munguia's time to not only prove he's in the conversation, but to actually make us care about him, which has been difficult to do with his match-making in recent years.
Munguia vs. Ryder Breakdown
Munguia is a 6-foot orthodox fighter who is eight years younger with heavy hands in this division and has a standard 72-inch reach.
Ryder is a 5-foot-9 southpaw with an equal reach to Munguia.
Ryder will be Munguia's first southpaw opponent of relevance – the only other southpaw of note Munguia has fought was Gonzalo Gaston Coria, whom he knocked out in Round 3 of their November 2022 fight. But Munguia was a -15000 favorite, so who cares?
Our main event is OFFICIAL! 🙌
Who gets it done: @JaimeMunguia15 or @_John_Ryder_? 🤔
Find out Saturday, LIVE at https://t.co/FoiaUucafv 🥊#MunguiaRyderpic.twitter.com/7nL7JXfuav
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) January 26, 2024
He's a vicious body puncher against D-level competition, and he'll look to hurt Ryder – higher class than that – downstairs, as well as with the straight right hand.
Ryder is unafraid to brawl, the classic British tough guy as he is, and has variety in his punches. He'll likely lean on his straight left hand and right hook.
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Munguia vs. Ryder Pick
Munguia has to win this fight or he can get the F outta here.
And he is a -400 favorite – this is the closest any of his fights have been odds-wise since he opened as an underdog against Ali several years ago, but the bout was about a pick'em on fight night.
Ryder has never been stopped (fairly, anyway – he has a TKO loss from early in his career that was very premature), and I do think Munguia could stop him. I also believe there could be real value on betting Ryder to win in an upset, depending on the odds you can find. But I'm playing it safe with Munguia by decision at +114 at FanDuel. That's 14 cents better than the rest of the market.
What you have to factor in boxing betting, and why it's difficult to bet underdogs, is that the close fight will go to the promotional side. And that's Munguia, who is backed by Oscar De La Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions.
I really think Ryder could keep this close, similar to what Derevyanchenko did, but I don't think the judges will give it to him unless he's dominant.
It's easier to bet on a 'dog if they have knockout upside, and while Munguia isn't amazing defensively, I don't think he gets caught in that way by Ryder as Derevyanchenko did in their bout. So Munguia by decision it is, but just a small play for Saturday night's main event.
The Pick: Jaime Munguia by Decision (+114 at FanDuel)
