Jake Paul vs. Andre August Odds, Pick: Can ‘Problem Child’ KO a Real Boxer?

Jake Paul vs. Andre August Odds

Jake Paul is finally fighting a "real" boxer!

Eh…

For those of you who don't know – and many of you don't – Paul's next opponent is an actual boxer with an actual record. But the reason people don't know much about him is by design.

There's a reason this is Paul's lowest-profile fight so far, and there's a reason why this guy is the actual boxer Paul chose.

Paul (7-1, 4 KOs) is fighting Andre August (10-1-1, 5 KOs) Friday on DAZN (8:30 p.m. ET main card) in an eight-round contest in Orlando, Florida.

Now for the dissection, including the odds and my Paul vs. August prediction and betting pick for Friday, Dec. 15.

Jake Paul vs. Andre August Analysis

Friday's featured attraction will be Paul's third fight of the year and his first since beating MMA fighter Nate Diaz in August. August most recently beat a previously undefeated Brandon Martin by unanimous decision as a B-side underdog in August.

Strike one, it was August's first fight in nearly four years.

Strike two, August is 5-foot-10 with an unlisted reach. However, I can tell you, he doesn't fight like an outside fighter at all, so he'll try to crowd the 6-foot-1, 76-inch-reach Paul, who will look to box from a safe distance.

Strike three, if you scrap Martin's 7-0 record, August's other opponents are a combined 27-66-6, and that includes three 0-0 boxers, one of whom is currently 3-13 and the other two haven't fought since. Oh, and that 7-0 Martin record was compiled against opponents who were a combined 14-51-1.

So yeah, you see why August is the guy here. This is the sport and how it works if you're the A-side with all the pull in the world.

Paul and his team would not be fighting August if they didn't believe he'd be a potential walkover foe, and the sportsbooks reflect that as the YouTuber turned boxer(?) is an -850 favorite and climbing as of this writing.

Frankly, I'm not sure if Paul's beaten better competition, but "Problem Child" has had more interesting and high-profile bouts. Maybe Anderson Silva could beat Brandon Martin, but who knows?

Both guys, who successfully made weight during Thursday's weigh-ins, have a lot to prove.

However, one guy – August – is fighting with house money. Paul, meanwhile, actually has pressure to win and has never been a bigger favorite at any point in his career.

Jake Paul vs. Andre August Pick

Paul should win this fight on Friday night, but I'm actually going to pick him by knockout/TKO.

I gave out that bet earlier this week in the following video. Paul via KO was lined at +290 on FanDuel at that time.

It's now dipped to +194, but it's still a recommended play from me. And it's my official Paul vs. August bet.

Paul via decision is -145. However, the reason I think August could be knocked out is my general cynicism around this fight. August is shorter, slower and, at 35, he's nearly 10 years older. Paul has legitimate punching power, and he doesn't totally suck despite what detractors may think.

August isn't going to wow you with his own punching power or footwork, his offense seems fairly basic, and the clear way for him to win is pressure.

Paul generally doesn't seem to enjoy inside fighting, and he's never fought anyone with a longer reach outside of Silva – who was and is closer to 50 (years old) than Paul is to 30 – and Tommy Fury, whom he actually lost to.

So the formula for Paul is to catch August coming in, and he'll be there to be hit.

No, Paul's likely not en route to a world championship – though, even in this sport, nothing would shock me since the WBC has already entertained ranking him – but he's not awful. He's just not going to be someone who could seriously challenge someone such as Canelo Alvarez. That's just dumb. But Andre August? Sure. Paul should take care of business.

But I'm sure he and his team will ask, "What will they say now?" afterward, and the response should be silence – not because he shut up anyone, but because he should win this fight in which he's a massive favorite. He's a bigger favorite to win this fight than every NFL team is at winning its game this week except for the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.

August is the perfect fighter for Paul to KO, and if he doesn't, it's honestly a disappointment, especially considering Paul hasn't had a knockout in two years.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.

The Pick: Jake Paul by KO/TKO (+194 at FanDuel)

Bet Paul by KO Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!