Liam Smith vs. Chris Eubank Jr. Odds
On Saturday afternoon in an ESPN+ main event, Liam Smith (33-3-1, 20 KOs) and Chris Eubank Jr. (32-3, 23 KOs) embark on the rematch of arguably boxing's most shocking outcome of 2023.
No, it wasn't the upset of the year because of who won, but rather how it ended.
Smith was an underdog against Eubank in their January clash at Manchester Arena, and for good reason.
Smith appeared to be smaller and somewhat outmatched, heading into what should've been a damn near coronation for the naturally bigger Eubank, who was an IBO super middleweight champion at his peak.
Eubank appeared to have a slight two rounds to one lead heading into Round 4, when Smith trapped and dropped him in the corner with a surprising flurry of punches that began with a left hook.
Eubank wobbled himself halfway across the ring and was allowed to continue fighting – until he was dropped a second time.
He never regained his legs.
Smith vs. Eubank 2 Fight Analysis
Since the embarrassing loss, Eubank has separated from previous trainer Roy Jones Jr.
He has joined Brian "BoMac" McIntyre, who is the trainer of Terence Crawford, boxing's arguable pound-for-pound No. 1 fighter.
The reasons may seem obvious, but he explained why in an interview with Sky Sports:
"They have worked with Terence Crawford for many years, and the results speak for themselves. Crawford is one of the pound-for-pound greats at the moment, and that gives me a lot of encouragement and a lot of confidence in the team that I have around me. What they are doing or what they have done, it's been tried, tested and proven at the highest levels."
This is truly a make-or-break fight for Eubank, who turns 34 on Sept. 18, and is clearly toward the end of his career as competitive as he still is.
Going undefeated in boxing is difficult if you've actually fought people, and he is not that, but he has come back from losses in two other instances in his career.
Eubank came back in 2015, three months after losing a debatable split decision to Billy Joe Saunders for the British, Commonwealth and European middleweight titles and subsequently captured the WBA interim middleweight title in his next bout.
And after losing to George Groves in February 2018, he came back that September with a quick KO win to set up a shot at the IBO super middleweight yitle, which he won.
Smith, who turned 35 in July, scored his biggest victory since stopping John Thompson for the WBO super welterweight title in October of 2015, but his win over Eubank may have easily been the most shocking one on his resume, along with the most recognizable name, including Jessie Vargas.
Smith has one other rematch in his career. In April 2017, Smith battled Liam Williams and won after the fight was stopped following Round 9 due to an eye injury to Williams.
Williams, however, had been ahead on all three judges' scorecards, 86-85, at the time of the stoppage. They had the rematch in November, and Smith eked out a majority decision victory with cards of 117-111, 116-112 and 114-114.
In Saturday's Smith vs. Eubank rematch, much of the physical attributes remain the same for both fighters.
Eubank still has about a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage, is still stronger (in theory), and should be faster – though the latter two didn't show in the first fight.
Smith, at this point, probably has the stronger chin. His one KO loss was to a Canelo Alvarez body shot in September 2016 whereas Eubank's was straight to the chin several months ago.
Now, let's place our bet.
Smith vs. Eubank Bet
First, hope you can find a book to bet this – because it can also get weird stateside with betting on the U.K. fights and where they're available. Thankfully, if you're in a FanDuel state, they've got you covered.
Anyway, for me, I'm writing off the first fight as, not a fluke, but as an abnormal occurrence. While I think Smith could win this rematch, I don't think it's a second KO within the first few rounds of the bout.
I just will continue to believe that Eubank is the better boxer until proven otherwise.
Will @ChrisEubankJr get revenge? 😤 #SmithEubank2 | SATURDAY | 2 PM ET | @ESPNPlus
🎥 @boxxer
pic.twitter.com/RLwu7SE2ZP— ESPN Ringside (@ESPNRingside) September 1, 2023
With that, I'll say that Eubank makes the necessary adjustments, and led by Coach McIntyre, boxes his way to victory against Smith in AO Arena in Manchester on Saturday.
My bet is Eubank on the moneyline, which is available at +140 via FanDuel.
I could see him winning via a late stoppage, and I'd personally lean toward a decision, but the +125 payoff is good enough for me to just bet Eubank straight up as the winner without sweating the method of victory.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!
