Yup, we're actually doing this. Jake Paul (10-1, 7 KOs) vs. Mike Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) is official. It's happening tonight in Arlington, Tex. — on Netflix — and it's an official fight.
And I have Paul vs. Tyson picks for the fight.
I've watched boxing since childhood and had Tyson's record baked into memory since then. Jake Paul is the guy who will change that since this is an official bout. This will be an eight-round fight, and each round will be 2 minutes long instead of the standard 3 minutes long. So, for up to 16 minutes, this is happening. This will also be 14-ounce gloves instead of 10, a minor safety precaution.
This was supposed to take place on July 20, but Tyson suffered an ulcer flare-up on a plane, shortly before he turned 58, so it was pushed back four months.
From a betting standpoint, Tyson had been hovering around +500 months ago, but books have been taking a lot of bets on the former undisputed heavyweight champion, who hasn't been in a sanctioned fight since 2005. Paul, who is young enough to be Tyson's son — maybe grandson depending on, well, things — is still the favorite, but that number is as close as its been to even, as of this writing.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Odds, Picks
Odds via bet365.
| Winning Market | Tyson | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +180 | -230 |
| KO/TKO/DQ | +250 | +150 |
| Decision | +1100 | +260 |
Tyson vs. Paul Picks: Mike Tyson by KO/TKO (+260, bet365) | Jake Paul By Decision (+300, bet365) | Jake Paul To Get Knocked Down & Win (+550, bet365)
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Predictions, Preview
From a legitimate boxing perspective, there are so many variables here.
But before that, let's talk about how potentially stupid this is.
Tyson is 58 and Paul is 27. The age gap is 31 years. Boxing has been a regulated sport since the 19th century, and The Marquess of Queensberry Rules was introduced in 1867, so it's entirely possible that we've had a fight with a larger age gap before.
Tyson's last professional fight was an embarrassing stoppage loss that saw "Iron Mike" retire on his stool after six rounds against fringe heavyweight contender Kevin McBride, who you've likely never heard of unless you're a boxing nerd like I am. That fight was on June 11, 2005, 19 days before Tyson's 39th birthday.
That was almost 20 years ago — he was considered old then. Jake Paul was eight years old when Tyson last fought a real fight.
That said, he insists that Mike Tyson is still in there.
Paul is 10-1 as a pro boxer with a heavily criticized record. Most boxers have padded records, so what Paul has done is just a more high-profile version of cherry-picking done by other pros. It doesn't mean what he's been doing is wrong, but it can still be criticized.
Paul's opponents have included (in order) one streamer, one former NBA player, five MMA fighters (and two of them were accomplished wrestlers with no boxing experience) and three actual boxers. Paul often has a size advantage, too, which isn't by accident.
Problem No. 1: The three actual boxers were Tommy Fury, Ryan Bourland and Andre August. Fury's opponents had a combined 14-175-5 record with six knockouts before he outpointed 10-1 Daniel Bocianski in his last bout leading up to the Paul fight. Paul lost by decision. Bourland hadn't fought in 18 months, and was on a four-year layoff before that. His fight against Paul in March was his second since October 2018, and he was stopped in Round 1. August, like most of Paul's opponents, was smaller, shorter, and older — and his opponents were a combined 34-66-6 before Paul KO'd him in Round 1 of their bout.
In this particular fight, age is a factor, and size might also be. Paul has weighed in at or under the 200-pound cruiserweight limit ahead of fights. Tyson has been a heavyweight his whole boxing life. He weighed around 220 for an exhibition with Roy Jones Jr. in 2020 and will likely be around there for this one.
Paul is 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach and Tyson is 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach. Paul will try to use his range, box from a distance and lean heavily on his overhand right, which is his KO shot. Tyson will deploy his famous and high energy peek-a-boo style, which is how he navigated larger opponents for multiple decades.
It needs to be said that when Tyson did walk away, he was a different person. He's tried to kill his Iron Mike persona and is happier now as part of a spiritual awakening. Maybe that accounts for something given how fussy he appeared at the end of his fighting career compared to now, but we'll see.
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Best Bets
Two of the bets I'm interested in as it pertains to this fight:
I'd be stunned if there isn't a knockdown in this fight. Tyson was dropped even in his prime and tasted the canvas seven times as a pro, though the last was more of a shove. Paul hasn't been dropped yet but, again, he hasn't faced anyone with the punching power of Tyson — even if in 2024, that's only old man strength.
I have a hard time picking a winner, but I'd expect at least a knockdown. I'm playing one knockdown as a parlay piece and will make a smaller play on two knockdowns straight-up.
I want to shout out that Tyson by KO/TKO is +260, Paul by decision is +300 and Paul is to be knocked down and win is at +550, all on bet365. All are plays I'm interested in, too.
The 14-ounce gloves and two-minute rounds may move me away from KO/TKO bets, but I'd be surprised if someone doesn't get dropped. The longer this goes, you'd think Paul has to be better off for it given the age.
Recommended Picks: Mike Tyson by KO/TKO (+260) | Jake Paul By Decision (+300) | Jake Paul To Get Knocked Down & Win (+550, bet365)
How To Watch Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, Start Time
This event will be broadcast exclusively on Netflix. The prelims are scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. ET before the main card, which will begin at 8 p.m.
Tyson vs. Paul will not start right at 8 p.m., though. The estimated walk time is 10 p.m.
