Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales Odds, Pick, Prediction: Boxing’s Upset of the Year?

Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales Odds, Pick, Prediction

Pick: Naoya Inoue in Rounds 1-6 (+110 at DraftKings & Betway)

This needs to be said: Naoya Inoue is the best fighter some of you have not yet heard of.

And, in boxing, he's pound-for-pound as good as anyone.

He returns on the day after Christmas on early Tuesday morning stateside (3 a.m. ET, ESPN+) – Boxing Day – in his home of Japan, defending his WBO and WBC super bantamweight titles against Marlon Tapales, the current IBF and WBA champion, for the title of undisputed at 122 pounds.

Inoue (25-0, 22 KOs) will fight for the second time this year after a one-sided ass-whooping of what felt like a 50-50 fight this summer against Stephen Fulton, whom he dismantled in eight rounds while losing one round at most.

Tapales (37-3, 19 KOs) is a talented unified champion out of the Philippines who upset Murodjon Akhmadaliev for the IBF and WBA straps via split decision in April, and he now enters as a heavy underdog.

Let's break down the ESPN+ fight with the Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales odds, prediction and betting pick.

Pick: Naoya Inoue in Rounds 1-6 (+110 at DraftKings & Betway)

Inoue vs. Tapales Analysis and Breakdown

Inoue has already been the undisputed champion at bantamweight, as well as a titleholder at super and light flyweight.

He's unbelievable, and unfortunately for Tapales, he actually has a size advantage. Inoue is 5-foot-5 with a near 68-inch reach to the southpaw's 5-foot-4, 65-inch reach.

Inoue has every edge possible. He's bigger, faster, stronger, younger, has better technique, is more explosive, has more championship experience, will be in his native land, and is the betting favorite for, well, every reason I just laid out.

This fight is merely happening so Inoue can become a double undisputed champion in his blossoming career and set possible future superfights at featherweight.

He's so good that people want him to fight Gervonta Davis, who fights at 135 pounds. Inoue's basically the modern-day peak Manny Pacquiao (before ballooning to welterweight, comparatively, without the history of being knocked out).

Speaking of, Tapales has been knocked out twice.

Tapales was stopped by Ryosuke Iwasa in December 2019 in the 11th round of an interim title bout at super bantamweight in Brooklyn. He was also stopped early in his career against an 8-6-2 journeyman named Brix Ray in 2009 – Tapales entered the bout 8-0 with two KOs.

The other loss? A 2013 decision to David Sanchez, fighting in his home of Mexico, who later became an interim world champion.

How Tapales beat Akhmadaliev is worth highlighting. Akhmadaliev is an aggressive fighter who attempted to push pace, but Tapales won by being extremely tactical, he relied on his defense, and he made it a point to box from a distance. He did noticeably tire out in the later rounds. But his offense was fairly basic, all things considered, leaning on straight left hands over the top, and often throwing single shots as opposed to combinations.

A loss for Inoue would be the Upset of the Year, and it wouldn't be close, like at all. It would be a historic undertaking in the sport – and the most shocking outcome of a fight since at least Andy Ruiz's stunning TKO win over Anthony Joshua in 2019.

(In 2024, the Tar Heel State will launch North Carolina sports betting fully online. Keep up with the latest legal happenings.)

Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales Pick, Prediction

Inoue stops him. And I'd be stunned – stunned – if he didn't.

But for value and a better payoff, I'm betting on Inoue to win by knockout between Rounds 1-6, listed on DraftKings and Betway at +110. Inoue by KO is otherwise -500 at best.

Inoue is 20-0 with 18 KOs in world title bouts, and 12 of those KOs have come in the first six rounds. Tapales will be defensive, but Inoue could walk through his unspectacular offense and get the stoppage, particularly to the body.

Enjoy the (early-morning) fight and don't go broke!

The Pick: Naoya Inoue in Rounds 1-6 (+110 at DraftKings & Betway)