Naoya Inoue vs TJ Doheny Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tuesday, September 3

Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny odds for the boxing main event on Tuesday, September 3.

The best pound-for-pound boxer in the world – according to some – fights on early Tuesday morning for us ESPN+ viewers here in North America.

That's right – Tuesday morning!

Naoya Inoue (27-0, 24 KOs) will again defend his undisputed super bantamweight championship when he meets overmatched TJ Doheny (26-4, 20 KOs).

Let's get right into it because this is Mismatch of the Year potential.

Here's my Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny pick and prediction for Tuesday morning, with walkouts for the main event expected at approximately 7:30 a.m. ET on ESPN+.

Inoue vs. Doheny Breakdown & Analysis

Inoue vs. Doheny is clearly a stay-busy fight for the champion.

A stay-busy fight is usually a bout you take to avoid a long layoff away from the ring that usually leads to a bigger fight in the near future. For Inoue, that could be in December, a month in which he's fought in each of the past three years of his career.

You can joke that all that some boxers do is take stay-busy fights, but for Inoue, this isn't common.

He beat some top opposition in recent bouts, including Luis Nery in May, Marlon Tapales in December and Stephen Fulton last summer, which is as good of a three-fight stretch that a fighter could have at super bantamweight. He convincingly lost one or two of those 24 rounds boxed.

Those three fill out a streak that Inoue currently rides, having knocked out eight straight opponents.

Doheny, meanwhile, lost a unanimous decision to top contender Sam Goodman, who at one point was rumored to get this opportunity before an injury.

Doheny, a tough southpaw who has never been stopped, has won three consecutive fights in Japan, all by TKO, which set up this golden chance for the Irishman.

Southpaw isn't an advantage against the orthodox Inoue, who has historically wrecked southpaws, including his last two opponents.

If you've been following along, you know I hold Inoue in high regard.

He's damn near flawless – it's why Nery dropping him in Round 1 of their May bout was shocking. But, Nery – southpaw, also – can crack. Inoue also didn't lose a second of the fight once he got up. And then he stopped Nery in six.

Inoue vs. Doheny Prediction & Pick

Now this is the difficult part of really looking into this bout.

Inoue is a -5000 (50-1) favorite.

OK, so let's go to the method-of-victory options: Inoue is -1050 to win by stoppage.

Hmm. OK, group-round betting? Inoue is still a chalky -440 to win between Rounds 1-6.

The over/under? It's now 4.5 rounds, and I was leaning toward the over when it was just 3.5. I'm confident Inoue gets yet another stoppage despite Doheny's toughness. But the odds on that all suck.

And while Inoue has a number of stoppages in the first four rounds, he hasn't done it in his last four fights. The last time was two years ago against a 40-year-old Nonito Donaire in a rematch of their first bout, which went to distance, largely because of a broken orbital bone (he still won).

I think Inoue's patience will carry Doheny beyond Round 1. And I think Doheny's toughness will get him to at least the fourth round.

While I'm confident about how this fight plays out, I'm finding it nearly impossible to extract any potential value. However, I do have one play – but it's more of a lean than a must-play. However, I know a lot of folks probably want some action on one of boxing's rising stars, so here goes.

I'm going to head over to bet365, which was the only major sportsbook that was offering same-game parlays at the time of this writing. We're going to parlay "Over 3.5 rounds" with "Naoya Inoue to Score 2 or More Knockdowns," which offers us -143 odds.

Inoue has dropped three straight opponents twice, and I think Doheny's toughness could open the door for Inoue again on Tuesday.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!

The Lean: SGP – "Over 3.5 rounds" + "Inoue 2+ Knockdowns" (-143 at bet365)